SMU vs. UCF Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -114 | 65.5 -105o / -115u | +126 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -106 | 65.5 -105o / -115u | -152 |
We have ourselves a treat here. For the first time this season, we have college football on a Wednesday night.
While bettors and college football fans rejoice over that fact, it also helps that the matchup is pretty good. The SMU Mustangs will hit the road to the "Bounce House" to take on the UCF Knights.
The Mustangs have come crashing down the last two weeks, losing by one score to TCU and Maryland in each of their previous two games. However, SMU has shown many positive signs despite the losing streak, and the fact that this matchup has been delayed twice could help it be even more prepared.
However, that edge works the other way as well.
The Knights have been solid on both sides of the ball, and their 3-1 record is well earned. They've played two ACC teams and a potent FAU squad. However, this may be their toughest test to date. Are they up to the task? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Southern Methodist Mustangs
The Mustangs offense has been a well-oiled machine thus far. They come in averaging 36.3 points per game to go along with 524 yards. Those numbers are good for 21st and sixth in the country, respectively.
A large majority of the offense has been supplied by quarterback Tanner Mordecai. He has been airing it out, as his average of 389 passing yards per game is the highest average in the country. He'll have the opportunity to keep that top spot in this matchup against a Knights secondary that has not been tested to this magnitude.
UCF's pass defense numbers are solid. It ranks 13th in opponent completion percentage, 48th in yards per pass and 32nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed. However, it hasn't had to defend the pass often this season and will now have to face upwards of 45 pass attempts in this matchup. With that level of volume, Mordecai is bound to find some holes.
The Mustangs may hurt the Knights even more on the ground. UCF ranks 115th in opponent yards per rush allowed. It now finds itself in a position to be dominated in the trenches, as it's outranked 15th to 61st in Line Yards.
We could hear Tre Siggers' name quite often in this matchup.
Central Florida Knights
We go from one offense that will succeed through the air to another that could find just as much success on the ground.
UCF is led by their dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who leads the team in rushing by a wide margin this season. He's tied with Isaish Bowser for the most carries on the team but has outgained the running back by nearly 200 yards.
Plumlee and UCF's trio of running backs made the Knights one of the most potent rushing offenses in the country. Combined, they rank 16th in yards per rush and are sixth in rushing attempts per game.
Their service academy-level rushing attack may have plenty of success against this SMU defense, as the Mustangs have been ravaged on the ground.
SMU comes into this matchup ranked 121st in yards per carry allowed. It may have trouble getting a push up front, as the Mustangs are outranked 10th to 82nd in Line Yards.
SMU better have used the extra preparation time to scheme against this rushing attack, or it could be a long night for its defense.
SMU vs. UCF Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and UCF match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. UCF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 32 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 23 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 6 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UCF Offense vs. SMU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 35 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 17 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 63 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 73 | 66 |
| PFF Coverage | 48 | 49 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 53 | 89 |
| Seconds per Play | 19.8 (2) | 24.0 (24) |
| Rush Rate | 44.9% (111) | 62.6% (16) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
SMU vs. UCF Betting Pick
Both offenses have the edge here, but the Mustangs have a bit more to their attack.
Mordecai has led a very vertical passing attack that will create explosive plays. However, they'll also be able to run the ball in this matchup and should exploit it with a higher rush rate.
Yes, the Knights' ground game is going to find success, but it works against them because SMU plays fast and doesn't need much time to score. So, using the rush to play keep-away won't help.
Find the best number you can, and back the Mustangs here on Wednesday night football.
