SMU vs Virginia Prediction, Pick, Odds for November 23

On Saturday, the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) host the red-hot SMU Mustangs (9-1) in Charlottesville, Virginia. The game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPN2.

The Mustangs have won seven straight games since dropping an 18-15 contest to BYU in Week 3. They're 9.5-point favorites on the spread in this game with a 57.5-point over/under.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have lost four of their past five games.

But this game may present a good buy-low, sell-high opportunity.

Read on for my Virginia vs SMU predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 13 game.

SMU vs Virginia Prediction

• SMU vs. Virginia Pick: Virginia +10

My SMU vs. Virginia best bet is, with the best line currently available at ESPNBet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Saturday, Nov. 23

12 p.m. ET

ESPN2

SMU Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-9.5 -110	57.5 -110 / -110	-330

Virginia Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+9.5 -110	57.5 -110 / -110	+265

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• SMU vs Virginia Point Spread: SMU -9.5 (-110) · Virginia +9.5 (-110)
• SMU vs Virginia Total: Over/Under 57.5
• SMU vs Virginia Moneyline: SMU -330 · Virginia +265

SMU vs Virginia Preview

SMU has had a remarkable turnaround in its season after some early-season struggles, including a near loss to Nevada in Week 0 followed by a home loss to BYU.

Part of the improvement coincided with a permanent change at quarterback, transitioning from a rotation of Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings to exclusively Jennings.

The Mustangs also boast real P4-level talent on the defense, led by Elijah Roberts, who should return after missing last week's game with an injury.

That said, I believe SMU is one of the most overvalued teams in the betting market.

The Mustangs have benefited from an extremely favorable ACC schedule that other ancillary factors have also assisted. Let's just take a look at who they have beat since they turned things around following their bye week:

• TCU by 24 (outgained by 105 yards; +4 turnover margin)
• Florida State
• Louisville (coin-flip)
• Stanford (freshman making first career start at QB)
• Duke (in overtime)
• Pitt
• Boston College

Color me not impressed, especially considering some of the good fortune they've enjoyed in terms of quarterbacks faced.

And while they beat Duke in overtime despite a -6 turnover margin, the Mustangs were +8 in the other six contests. Plus, those seven opponents went just 11-of-25 on fourth-down attempts.

I'm saying they've been a bit fortunate in various ways against an already soft schedule.

Plus, SMU is far from perfect. Brashard Smith is a talented running back, but the ground game isn't overly efficient, primarily due to an offensive line that struggles in running blocking.

It also lost its best deep threat to a season-ending injury in tight end RJ Maryland, while the wide receiver room doesn't blow you away with talent.

Defensively, SMU is as stingy as it gets when it comes to stopping the run, but the cornerback room can be attacked a bit, and the secondary as a whole allows too many explosive plays through the air.

Can Virginia take advantage? Potentially. A lot will depend on which quarterback is under center and how they perform.

Tony Muskett gives UVA more stability, but Anthony Colandrea brings more upside (and risk). You want to attack the SMU secondary deep, so I'd roll with Colandrea.

However, he did get pulled in the second half last week after a disastrous performance against Notre Dame. His intermediary and deep-ball efficiency has also fallen off a cliff recently.

Head coach Tony Elliott stated both have split first-team reps this week. I'd expect Colandrea to get the start but with a shorter leash if he continues making mistakes without providing the splash plays downfield.

I do have Virginia rated higher than the market. I didn't put too much stock into its blowout loss to UNC due to the dire injury situation along the offensive line at the time, which completely crumbled the offense.

Virginia has also dealt with key defensive injuries and missed wide receiver Trell Harris alongside Malachi Fields. Even last week against Notre Dame, five first-half turnovers led to all 28 of the Irish's first-half points.

SMU vs Virginia

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Virginia match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. Virginia Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	46	78
Line Yards	85	104
Pass Success	55	106
Havoc	58	102
Finishing Drives	29	89
Quality Drives	34	92

Virginia Offense vs. SMU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	69	39
Line Yards	35	16
Pass Success	108	37
Havoc	94	34
Finishing Drives	107	15
Quality Drives	113	17

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	42	92
PFF Coverage	33	82
Special Teams SP+	57	48
Middle 8	16	113
Seconds per Play	24.9 (23)	25.6 (37)
Rush Rate	60% (29)	52% (95)

SMU vs Virginia Pick & Prediction

If you listen to our "Big Bets of Campus" podcast, I've been saying that SMU will lose in Charlottesville for a month, so I'm sticking to my guns.

I am concerned about the residual fallout from a physical battle in South Bend. Starting safety Corey Thomas Jr. won't play, and others got beat up. Interestingly, teams are 0-8 ATS the week after playing ND in 2024.

Still, at +10, I see enough value to pull the trigger on the Hoos, who will try to play spoiler while keeping their postseason hopes alive on Senior Day in their home finale.

All of the pressure is on an SMU squad that I believe has reached the very peak of its market rating.

For what it's worth, Virginia head coach Tony Elliott is 13-3 ATS as an underdog in ACC play, including a perfect 8-0 when catching over a touchdown.

I project this spread closer to Cavs +7.5.

Pick: Virginia +10 (-105, ESPNBet) | Play to +9.5 (-110)

SMU vs Virginia will be played at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.