Clemson (9-3) has been the dominant program in the ACC over the past 15 years, winning the conference nine times and reaching the College Football Playoff five times.
It can clinch another College Football Playoff trip with a Saturday night victory.
SMU (11-1) may be in the CFP even with a loss, but it would prefer not to take the risk.
The fact the Mustangs are in the conference championship game may be a surprise to some. They were picked seventh in the preseason ACC media poll in their first year in the league.
Behind a high-powered offense, SMU is a 2.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship with a 55.5-point over/under.
Read on for my SMU vs. Clemson same-game parlay.
ACC Championship Odds for SMU vs Clemson
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -134 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +112 |
- Spread: SMU -2.5 (-112) · Clemson +2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 55.5 (-105/-115)
- Moneyline: SMU -134 · Clemson +112
ACC Championship Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay for SMU vs Clemson
- Clemson +7.5 (-245)
- Atonio Williams Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Bryant Wesco Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Kevin Jennings 225+ Passing Yards (-188)
Parlay Odds: +557 (FanDuel)
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Clemson +7.5 (-245)
Much has been made of the difference in schedules these teams have faced.
SMU has faced six of the bottom eight teams in the ACC and lost its only game to a ranked squad (BYU). It did hand Pitt its first loss with a 48-25 victory, but Pitt has not won since and remained out of the latest CFP rankings.
Conversely, Clemson has faced a more difficult schedule, including games against two SEC teams (Georgia and South Carolina).
Will this matter on Saturday?
I'm not positive, as I still see the same game as a tossup.
However, I think the Tigers will keep the score within a touchdown. C
lemson enters the game as the program with more recent big-game experience. It also may have the crowd on its side with the game played in Charlotte.
Additionally, we have a close spread (actually +2.5) with a total of 55.5 points. That tells us the oddsmakers are projecting a tight and high-scoring game.
Antonio Williams Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114) & Bryant Wesco Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik is one of five ACC quarterbacks to throw for 3,000 yards this season.
His two leading receivers are Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco.
Williams has 66 receptions for 788 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. The redshirt sophomore has recorded 63 receiving yards in five of his last eight games, including four with 70 yards or more.
Meanwhile, Wesco has had 45 receiving yards in each of his past three games and in five of his past seven games. Averaging 17.8 yards per catch, he is likelier to clear this line with one big play. He has recorded a catch of 35 yards or more in five games this season.
Against a stingy South Carolina defense, Williams had eight receptions for 99 yards while Wesco had five receptions for 67 yards.
SMU ranks in the top 20 nationally in scoring defense but is vulnerable through the air, ranking 85th with 230.3 passing yards allowed per game.
That bodes well for Klubnik, who is averaging 251.7 passing yards per game, and also his receivers.
If he goes for 250 or so this week, Williams and Wesco will likely combine for over 110 of those yards.
Kevin Jennings 225+ Passing Yards (-188)
The trenches are usually where the Group of 5 teams must upgrade to compete with high-level Power Four teams.
Running back Brashard Smith is third in the ACC with 1,157 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.
However, if Smith gets bottled up by a formidable Clemson defensive line, that will put more pressure on his quarterback.
Jennings has thrown for 2,746 yards while completing 66.7% of his passes. In ACC play, he is averaging 283.3 passing yards per game. He has thrown at least 225 passing yards in all eight conference games.
Meanwhile, Clemson allows 207 passing yards per game and has allowed at least 225 passing yards in five separate outings. A few weeks ago, Pitt quarterback Nate Yarnell threw for 350 yards on the Tigers.
While Jennings has dual-threat capabilities, he has attempted at lest 30 passes in each of his past three games.
If that trend continues, I like Jennings' chances of throwing 225 yards.
