The South Alabama Jaguars (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt) head to Lafayette on Saturday night to take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (8-1, 5-0) in a Sun Belt showdown. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
South Alabama enters this game in a good buy-low spot after suffering a 34-30 loss at the hands of Georgia Southern in Week 10. After a bye week, the Jaguars will be rearing to go against a Louisiana team that sits atop the conference standings.
After losing their lone game of the season to Tulane in September, the Ragin' Cajuns have rattled off 6 straight wins. Last week, they beat the brakes off Arkansas State, 55-19, at home.
Louisiana enters as a -7.5 favorite with an over/under of 60.
Continue reading for my South Alabama vs. Louisiana predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
South Alabama vs Louisiana Prediction
- South Alabama vs Louisiana Pick: South Alabama +7.5
My Louisiana vs South Alabama best bet is on the Jaguars to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs Louisiana Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 60 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 60 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- South Alabama vs Louisiana Spread: South Alabama +7.5 (-110) · Louisiana -7.5 (-110)
- South Alabama vs Louisiana Over/Under: 60
- South Alabama vs Louisiana Moneyline: South Alabama +240 · Louisiana -30
South Alabama vs Louisiana Preview
Louisiana has entered the fringe College Football Playoff chat after an impressive 8-1 start. However, I'm not fully sold on the Ragin' Cajuns, who I believe are now at the peak of their market value at this price.
Let's take a closer look at their eight wins — five of which came by 10 points or less.
- Grambling
- Kennesaw State
- Wake Forest
- Southern Miss
- Appalachian State
- Coastal Carolina
- Texas State
- Arkansas State
Even excluding Grambling, per my most recent power ratings, the other seven teams they beat have an average overall rank of 99th with a defensive rank of 109th.
One of their two best wins came over Texas State by six in a game in which the Bobcats finished with a -2 turnover margin and lost their starting quarterback to injury, which hasn't been the only game where Louisiana has benefited from the opposing quarterback it faced at the time.
The other impressive victory came on the road against Wake Forest by three in a dead-even game statistically in which the Demon Deacons lost the turnover battle and missed a game-tying 42-yard field goal as time expired.
They did blow out Arkansas State last week, but their other league wins came by 10 points each against lowly Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State. The Chants were tied in the fourth quarter, and the Mountaineers trailed by just three in the final frame but finished with a -4 turnover margin after giving the ball away on four of their final five possessions.
While South Alabama's record looks much worse at 4-5, keep in mind it lost at an improved Ohio team by seven without starting quarterback Gio Lopez. Plus, both of its league losses have come by a combined six points.
It lost by two to Arkansas State on a last-second field goal and by four to Georgia Southern after blowing a 30-16 fourth-quarter lead in one of the biggest meltdowns of the year in which Gio Lopez also left the game with a concussion late.
With a few better bounces, the Jaguars are playing this game for first place, and this line probably sits at a touchdown or slightly less.
The Ragin' Cajuns have played good football this season, but they've also been quite fortunate against a bottom-20 schedule.
I believe that's inflating their price tag against a pretty competitive South Alabama squad that should benefit from a much-needed bye week where they hopefully addressed some of the penalty issues that have plagued it all season.
The Jaguars can certainly match scores against a very vulnerable Louisiana defense that ranks 128th in overall Success Rate and 124th in Tackles for Loss.
Their talented backfield should have a field day on the ground in particular.
That should set everything else up for Lopez, who shouldn't have to deal with overwhelming pressure in this particular matchup, which has caused major issues due to a fairly weak offensive line.
South Alabama vs Louisiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Louisiana match up statistically:
South Alabama Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 134 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 120 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 103 | |
| Quality Drives | 9 | 82 | |
Louisiana Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 51 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 66 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 116 |
| PFF Coverage | 100 | 15 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 67 | 35 |
| Middle 8 | 32 | 70 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (88) | 29.9 (121) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (57) | 53% (60) |
South Alabama vs Louisiana Pick & Prediction
These teams are much closer than their records and this line indicates, so I'm going to take the road dog to keep this within one possession. Plus, I wouldn't be shocked if the Jaguars pulled off the outright upset.
For what it's worth, Sun Belt home teams in conference play have not fared well (44%) against the number over the past two decades, especially as touchdown-plus favorites: 118-159-6 (42.6%).
Also, Louisiana head coach Michael Desormeaux is 4-7 ATS (36.4%) as a favorite of seven or more points against FBS foes with four outright losses.
I make this number under a touchdown, so I'll take the points with the Jaguars on Saturday.
Pick: South Alabama +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
South Alabama vs Louisiana Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
South Alabama vs Louisiana Betting Trends
South Alabama vs Louisiana Weather
