South Alabama vs Oklahoma State Odds & Prediction: Is Wrong Team Favored?

Saturday, Sept. 16

7 p.m. ET

ESPN+

South Alabama Odds
Spread	Over/Under	ML
+7 -110	48.5 -110o / -110u	+220

Oklahoma State Odds
Spread	Over/Under	ML
-7 -110	48.5 -110o / -110u	-275

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

The South Alabama Jaguars take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys this week.

The Cowboys are off to a terrific start this season, while the Jaguars are limping into this matchup.

Due to the injury uncertainty for the Jaguars, this is quite an interesting handicap.

Let's take a deeper dive and find the best South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State betting angle.

South Alabama Jaguars

The Jags are coming off of a win over SE Louisiana, but they paid the price in the health department.

Some key players — such as running back Braylon McReynolds and receiver Devin Voisin — will be out for the "foreseeable future," according to coach Kane Wommack.

It may be easier for the running back room to fill McReynolds' role, as La'Damian Webb is trending towards getting a heavier workload as he progresses from his offseason surgery. Webb was electric last week, rushing for 79 yards and two touchdowns on just seven carries.

Marco Lee Jr. and Ole Miss transfer Kentrel Bullock will get a lot more reps this week, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Jaguars also pushed Webb a bit more. Bullock finished last week with 14 carries, 82 yards and a score.

Webb could be in store for a monster day against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 116th in Rushing Success Rate and 119th in Line Yards.

Despite not putting up the gaudiest offensive numbers thus far, Jags quarterback Carter Bradley has completed 75% of his passes this season. However, his two touchdowns-to-three interceptions is nothing to write home about.

In this matchup, I could see South Alabama taking advantage of Oklahoma State's secondary. The Cowboys are 81st in Defensive Pass Success Rate and 83rd in opposing Finishing Drives. If the Jaguars find themselves in plus territory often, there's a good chance they'll be putting some touchdowns on the board.

Despite the injury concerns, I think the Jaguars are deep enough to take advantage of Oklahoma State's defense. I'm a bit worried about Bradley protecting the ball, but he's efficient enough to get the job done.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

Although they enter this matchup at 2-0, I'm a bit concerned about the Cowboys. Their 27-15 win last week at Arizona State wasn't too impressive; ASU barely beat Southern Utah the week before.

I'm also concerned about the quarterback play, which has been pretty uninspiring thus far. Head coach Mike Gundy continues to rotate his QBs and has been using a three-way split between Garret Rangel, Alan Bowman and Gunnar Gundy.

Bowman looked the best last week, as he went 11-of-16 for 103 yards. It'll be interesting to see who Gundy puts his faith in when conference play begins.

Luckily for Oklahoma State, the Jaguars have been absolutely shredded through the air this season. South Alabama ranks 133rd in Defensive Passing Success Rate, so this could be a get-right spot for the quarterbacks, and Gundy may find his starter by the end of this matchup.

I would say I feel great about the Cowboys in this game despite their poor QB play, but I can't because the Jaguars have been so stout in the trenches.

Oklahoma State has run wild to start the year, but this is not a great matchup to find success on the ground, as the Jaguars' defense is 11th in Rushing Success Rate.

South Alabama vs Oklahoma State

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

South Alabama Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	86	116
Line Yards	86	119
Pass Success	65	81
Havoc	87	24
Finishing Drives	61	83
Quality Drives	81	18

Oklahoma State Offense vs. South Alabama Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	32	11
Line Yards	59	79
Pass Success	95	133
Havoc	24	93
Finishing Drives	47	35
Quality Drives	16	118

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	62	132
PFF Coverage	132	76
Special Teams SP+	58	65
Middle 8	62	62
Seconds per Play	27.8 (81)	25.6 (50)
Rush Rate	54.0% (103)	43.7% (122)

South Alabama vs Oklahoma State

Betting Pick & Prediction

I know the injuries are concerning, but I think the Jaguars have enough depth to overcome them.

I absolutely love South Alabama in this game, and we're getting over a touchdown.

Oklahoma State is vastly overrated in the market, and I don't think the Cowboys can contain the Jaguars' offense.

This is a great buy-low spot for the Jaguars, as I think they may win this game outright.

Pick: South Alabama +7.5 (Play to +6)

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