South Carolina vs Clemson Odds
| South Carolina Gamecocks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +470 |
| Clemson Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -625 |
The South Carolina Gamecocks just pulled off the most significant upset of the college football season last week. Now what?
Shane Beamer's club aims for its fourth outright win as an underdog this season, fresh off a 63-38 posterizing of Tennessee as 22-point pups.
Odds peg the Gamecocks as double-digit underdogs for the second consecutive week against Clemson, which is statistically off its best win of the season.
The Tigers (-19) routed Miami 40-10, and the 11-point win above the closing line is the best all year for the program. I predicted a Tennessee cover over South Carolina last weekend. That went pretty terribly.
This week, I think there's an obvious pick.
Hangover Spot or Momentum for South Carolina?
Quarterback Spencer Rattler entered Week 12 with eight touchdown passes. He posted six alone vs. Tennessee.
After downplaying a 38-6 loss to Florida the previous week, Rattler indeed showed up when it mattered most.
Cocky cashed its win total over 6.5, bounced Tennessee out of the CFP in the process, and as a sweetener, also watched North Carolina lose on the same day — or in other words, a perfect day for the entire city of Columbia.
How South Carolina responds will be a big question all week.
Week 13 is a non-conference game, in one of the toughest road environments in college football, two days removed from injecting a pint of tryptophan right into the bloodstream.
South Carolina doesn't necessarily perform well after covering, going just 1-9-1 against the number over the past 11 games.
Are the Gamecocks content after winning their faux national title, or will they sink their teeth into more orange Saturday?
Clemson's Defensive Mismatch
On Saturday morning, Dabo Swinney will ferociously shake his 8-ball, wondering what the football gods have in the works for DJ Uiagalelei.
The Dabo Dice are apparently infinite-sided because Uiagalelei's production can range anywhere from the NFL version of Nathan Peterman to Heisman finalist.
Running back Will Shipley's spearheading a top-20 offense in Rush Success, and outside of Uiagalelei's timely penchant for making us all question what his true talent really is, Clemson's been pretty solid across the board, especially at getting a push and finishing off drives.
The defense has performed well in the first year sans Brent Venables. They've dealt with injuries and had a couple high-scoring games against potent teams in Wake and FSU. But they might feast on a South Carolina offense that does not handle pressure well.
Clemson is top five in Havoc and Pass Rush, and in turn top 20 in Pass Success.
The Tigers allow just 10.7 yards per completion, a year after ranking top-five nationally at 10.3.
The defense as a whole features four players rating 36th or better nationally at their position, according to PFF, including one on all three levels.
South Carolina vs Clemson Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Carolina and Clemson match up statistically:
South Carolina Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 84 | 18 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 45 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 128 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 20 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Clemson Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 77 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 63 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 89 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 55 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 109 | 41 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 19 | 27 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (92) | 26.1 (56) |
| Rush Rate | 51.8% (81) | 55.3% (58) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
South Carolina vs Clemson Betting Pick
I love betting trends. Not because they can unlock the keys to the treasure trove or anything; I'm simply a sucker for theories behind backing or fading college football teams across hyper-specific filters.
Although my memory is cloudy for the amount of mid-major win totals I've lost over the last decade, one of my favorite college football systems applies this week: Bet the under the total between two teams off 40 or more point offensive showings, which is about 3% better than the break-even rate of 52.3% since 2005.
Also, teams that go off for 50+ points at home and then travel the following week were even more profitable to the under than the aforementioned clip — and South Carolina specifically fits the bill here.
This number's been bet up from 51 (key) and up to 52 (key). I'd feel extremely stupid taking a position on under and watching the total get to, say, 52.5 or 53, but I wouldn't agree with it.
I love both secondaries in this matchup – and as an ode to Cam Smith, I'm hoping the 63 points last week from Cocky was more of a blind squirrel finding its nut.
Pick: Under 52 (Play to 51.5) |
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