South Carolina vs Florida Odds
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -114 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -106 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
South Carolina will head down to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville this weekend to take on the Gators.
Both teams have had up-and-down seasons but are on a similar tier within the division. South Carolina is already bowl-eligible for the second year in a row, while Florida will need to pick up one more win in order to qualify for a bowl in Billy Napier’s first season.
Last season, South Carolina came out with the win at home by a score of 40-17. Florida has typically dominated this series, but over the last decade, they have had some close battles. I expect this week’s game to play out in a similar way between two relatively evenly-matched teams.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Gamecocks Offense
This South Carolina offense has been all over the place this season.
You never know if you will get the unit that is capable of putting up 50 against inferior opponents or if you will get the team that struggled to break into double digits against Missouri.
South Carolina is ranked as the 53rd-best offense by SP+, and they are 76th in offensive success rate. The addition of Spencer Rattler has improved the Gamecocks’ passing game from a season ago but still has not been the answer that they hoped it would be in Columbia.
This passing game ranks 99th in success rate and 75th in PPA. They have been able to generate some explosive plays, though, as they rank 17th in passing explosiveness.
South Carolina’s rushing game is OK, but it’s not anything to write home about. They rank 45th in rushing success rate and 39th in PPA. Their main problem in the run game is that the Gamecocks rank 112th in PFF run block grade at 52.0. MarShawn Lloyd is the workhorse in this backfield as he has 100 carries on the season and is averaging 5.88 yards per carry and 0.15 EPA per rush.
Gamecocks Defense
On the surface, this South Carolina defense hasn’t been bad, but they may not be the best matchup for this Florida Gators squad.
South Carolina’s defense is ranked 37th by SP+ but just 113th in success rate. Most of the success of this defense has come against the pass, as they rank 58th in success rate and 65th in PPA.
Florida’s strength is in their rushing game. However, South Carolina ranks just 128th in success rate against the run and 112th in PFF run defense grade, which may end up posing some problems.
The wild card here will be how the Gamecocks are able to hold up against the explosiveness of the Florida offense. The Gators are extremely explosive, particularly in the running game. South Carolina’s best defensive attribute this season has been preventing explosive running plays as they rank fourth in rushing explosiveness allowed.
If South Carolina is able to keep this up, they may be able to shut down Anthony Richardson and the dynamic Gators rushing attack.
Florida Gators
Gators Offense
A lot has changed for Florida since Anthony Richardson won the Week 1 Heisman when they defeated Utah in The Swamp. The Gators have gone on a roller coaster ride since then and find themselves sitting at 5-4, one win away from bowl eligibility in Billy Napier’s first season in Gainesville.
Richardson has been as dynamic as you could possibly imagine on the ground but has not yet developed into a productive passer. Florida ranks 90th in passing success rate, but they are able to hit a big play from time to time, as they rank 13th in passing explosiveness.
The rushing game for Florida ranks 77th in success rate but ninth in PPA, as it is the most explosive rushing game in the country. Florida ranks as the number one offense in explosiveness overall.
Richardson is absolutely electric on the ground. He has 552 yards and eight touchdowns on just 68 carries. On these rushes, Richardson is averaging an astonishing 0.61 EPA per play, which is more than a lot of the top quarterbacks in the country even average when throwing the ball.
Trevor Etienne is the other home run threat on this offense. Etienne is averaging 0.17 EPA per rush and 5.94 yards per carry.
Gators Defense
Florida’s defense has not been up to typical SEC standards this season. They are ranked 74th by SP+ and 117th in defensive success rate. They haven’t been good at preventing teams from finishing drives (107th) or creating Havoc (126th).
The Gators have struggled against both the pass and the run. They are 114th in rushing success rate and 113th in rushing PPA. Against the pass they are slightly better at 99th in success rate and 83rd in PPA allowed.
South Carolina’s offense isn’t one that typically stresses defenses so this may be a good spot for Florida’s defense to hold up, but they are a vulnerable unit and could be exploited with a good game plan from the Gamecocks.
South Carolina vs Florida Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Carolina and Florida match up statistically:
South Carolina Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 99 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 131 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 129 | 120 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 107 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Florida Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 58 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 41 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 86 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 54 | 55 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 64 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 1 | 48 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (84) | 26.9 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 52.5% (72) | 56.1% (52) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
South Carolina vs Florida Betting Pick
Florida’s rushing attack poses a huge mismatch and should have a big day. However, 8.5 points is just too large of a spread between these two teams.
Neither defense is great, and I think that South Carolina will be able to hang around within a touchdown in this game.
Pick: South Carolina +8.5 ⋅ Play to +7.5 |
