We head to Orlando, Florida, on Tuesday with a New Year's Eve kickoff of the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. The 15th-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3, 5-3 SEC) take on the 20th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3, 6-3 B1G) with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
Many believe the Gamecocks were snubbed when it comes to the College Football Playoff field; regardless, they have impressed. They’re coming in with a mostly full roster and only a couple of opt-outs.
Illinois had an excellent season, except for 2 straight losses in Weeks 9 and 10. Like its opponent, it's coming in mostly with a full squad. Now, the Illini look to finish the season with a bowl victory.
South Carolina enters as a -10 favorite with the over/under set at 49.5.
Where does the betting value lie? Check out my South Carolina vs. Illinois predictions and college football picks for the Citrus Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks
- South Carolina vs. Illinois Pick: South Carolina -10
My Illinois vs. South Carolina best bet is on the Gamecocks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
South Carolina vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Betting Line
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +275 |
- South Carolina vs. Illinois Spread: South Carolina -8.5 · Illinois +8.5
- South Carolina vs. Illinois Over/Under: 49.5
- South Carolina vs. Illinois Moneyline: South Carolina ML -350 · Illinois ML +275
South Carolina vs. Illinois Citrus Bowl Betting Preview
South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Preview: Mostly At Full Strength
South Carolina had only two opt-outs, but they were big ones.
Stud defensive end Kyle Kennard won’t be playing to prepare for the NFL Draft, and neither will leading rusher Raheim “Rocket” Sanders.
Combined with quarterback LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina rushed the ball at a top-15 rate, meaning the ball will have to go to either one of running backs Oscar Adaway or Juju McDowell.
After a stellar stint at North Texas, Adaway got a decent amount of carries but hardly made the most of it, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry.
South Carolina’s offense typically revolved around Sellers, but the combination of him and Sanders made this offense much more potent. With Sanders gone, it’ll be up to Sellers to sling the rock a little more, which shouldn’t be a problem with his 65% completion rate.
He’ll also have the luxury of his trusted weapons in tight end Joshua Simon, wide receiver Mazeo Bennett Jr. and wide receiver Nyck Harbor, all combined for 12 receiving touchdowns.
The loss of Kennard hurts on the defensive end. He and Dylan Stewart made for one of the deadliest pass rushes in the country, combining for 25 tackles for loss and 18 sacks. On top of that, the defense ranked 20th in the FBS in Havoc.
However, the secondary is armed and dangerous. The Gamecocks rank 51st in Pass Success Rate allowed, 23rd in PPA allowed and 42nd in explosiveness allowed. Defensive backs like O’Donnell Fortune, Jalen Kilgore and Nick Emmanwori have been crucial to this program.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Missing Biggest Weapon
Junior quarterback Luke Altmyer had himself a solid season. His completion rate may not be incredible at 61%, but he has done a marvelous job of protecting the football.
However, life won’t be as easy as it used to be for him. His top receiver, Pat Bryant, who hauled in 10 touchdowns with a smidge under 1,000 yards, has opted out of the Citrus Bowl.
Similarly, starting right guard Zy Crisler entered the transfer portal and will not play.
That leaves senior receiver Zakhari Franklin to take the reins. Franklin isn’t as dynamic as Bryant but has provided some stability whenever the defenses honed in on Bryant.
Behind Franklin, it opens the door for redshirt freshman Collin Dixon, junior Hank Beatty and sophomore Malik Elzy to take advantage.
That brings us to the run game that, aside from Rivalry Week against Northwestern, has reeked of mediocrity all season. The Illini ranked 90th in Rush Success Rate, 91st in explosiveness and 86th in PPA.
But was Rivalry Week an indicator of what may come? Sophomore Aidan Laughery ran for a career-best 172 yards and three touchdowns. One has to wonder if we’ll continue to see the Illinois native receive more reps in the backfield over Josh McCray.
Defensively, the Illini could’ve been better all season. They’re 49th in the FBS, allowing 24.1 points per game, but their Havoc ranking is suboptimal at 76th. Additionally, their pass defense has slacked, ranking 79th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed.
They have some solid contributors like outside linebacker Gabe Jacas — who had eight sacks and 10 tackles for loss — and defensive back Xavier Scott, who racked up four picks with six breakups.
The problem is, as a collective, they should be better. That concerns me for their outlook against Sellers, who likes to scatter around the field.
Illinois vs. South Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and South Carolina match up statistically:
South Carolina Offense vs. Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 133 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 68 |  |
Illinois Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 109 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 20 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 45 | 4 |
| PFF Coverage | 7 | 33 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 34 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 44 | 36 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (71) | 28.0 (95) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (13) | 56% (61) |
How to Bet My South Carolina vs. Illinois Pick
This will ultimately be a battle between two programs that have dominated the spread. South Carolina ranked seventh with a 9-3 ATS record, while Illinois is eighth at 8-3-1.
Even though South Carolina will be missing Kennard in this matchup, it’ll mostly be at full strength defensively. I'm a big believer in its secondary as well, with Fortune and Kilgore being total ballhawks.
Altmyer may have had a heck of a season limiting turnovers, but the talent gap is too drastic for me to see the Illini making this close. Without Bryant, Altmyer becomes vulnerable, and I don’t think any other receivers can separate themselves from South Carolina’s secondary.
I also look at the strength of schedule. The Gamecocks have victories over Clemson, Missouri and Texas A&M, and lost in tight battles with LSU and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Illinois got destroyed by Penn State and Oregon, lost to Minnesota at home and went to overtime with 1-11 Purdue. Lay the points with the Gamecocks.
Pick: South Carolina -10
South Carolina vs. Illinois Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, Dec. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
South Carolina takes on Illinois in the Citrus Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
South Carolina vs. Illinois Betting Trends
South Carolina vs. Illinois Weather
