The South Dakota Coyotes (11-2, 7-1 MVFC) travel to Bozeman, Montana, to take on the Montana State Bobcats (14-0, 8-0 Big Sky) in FCS semifinal action on Saturday, Dec. 21. This game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
We're down to four teams remaining in the FCS Playoffs with a trip to the national championship on the line this week. The top four seeds held serve last week, covering the spread and setting up titanic battles for supremacy between the Big Sky and Missouri Valley Football Conference.
The Bobcats are seeking to get back to the FCS national title game for the first time since 2021, and they've been laser-focused all season.
South Dakota is in unfamiliar territory here, as the Coyotes are making their first appearance in the FCS semis. While this figures to be a competitive football game, USD has its work cut out for it going on the road and attempting to slow down the No. 1 scoring offense in FCS.
Montana State enters as a -8 favorite with the over/under set at 56.5.
Let's dive into my South Dakota vs. Montana State predictions and college football picks for the FCS Playoffs on Saturday, Dec. 21.
South Dakota vs Montana State Prediction
- South Dakota vs. Montana State Pick: Montana State -8
My Montana State vs. South Dakota best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
South Dakota vs Montana State Odds
| South Dakota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | -305 |
- South Dakota vs Montana State Point Spread: South Dakota +8 (-110) · Montana State -8 (-110)
- South Dakota vs Montana State Total: Over/Under 56.5
- South Dakota vs Montana State Moneyline: South Dakota +240 · Montana State -305
South Dakota vs Montana State Preview
South Dakota Coyotes Betting Preview: 'Yotes Need to Step Up
South Dakota comes in off a big home win last week over UC Davis. The Aggies were a trendy underdog pick to go into Vermillion and upset the Coyotes.
USD was the beneficiary of six UC Davis turnovers and won by margin despite getting outgained by 55 yards.
For the second week in a row, the South Dakota defense was uncharacteristically exposed. Tarleton State and UC Davis are the only opponents to surpass 400 total yards of offense against USD. If a third straight opponent can do that, USD will see its season end with a long plane ride home.
Offensively, South Dakota is going to have to create explosive plays on the ground and via the play-action pass — something it wasn't known for doing this season.
The Coyotes prefer a methodical run-heavy approach with play-action off that, but USD missed some of those deep-shot opportunities last week.
Montana State's defensive front has played well this season, registering 34 sacks and 83 tackles for loss. While the Bobs aren't turnover-reliant, the defense forces teams to make tough offensive decisions on third and fourth down at critical junctures.
USD is very conservative by nature and has attempted a fourth-down conversion on just six occasions all year. Instead, it defaults to punting and playing the field-position game, which could be a problem if playing from behind.
Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview: Superior Talent
Montana State has been the class of FCS football all season, and last week was no different. Last week’s 52-19 victory over Idaho was competitive for long stretches of the first half, as Idaho was at full strength compared to the first meeting between the two.
Three touchdowns late in the first half busted this game open, and the mistakes compounded for Idaho in the second half to turn what was a 10-10 game into a 52-10 game rather quickly.
We've kept waiting for Montana State to show weakness or inconsistency, but it hasn’t come to fruition thus far. I expect another strong performance from the Bobs here.
Montana State has played its best defense on third down this season, allowing a conversion on just 32.1% of attempts. This defense is rarely caught out of position, and the back-end coverage has been solid all season in forcing 49 pass breakups.
The unit has surrendered just 187 pass yards per game all season. USD is a very physical team and Montana State will be tested here, but the USD pass attack is predicated on deep shots. That's just not something the Bobcats give up.
South Dakota vs Montana State Pick & Prediction
My play on this one may seem square and obvious, but I'm going to lay the number with Montana State.
South Dakota is going to have to play a near-perfect football game for this one to remain close. I'm concerned about USD's ability to limit explosive plays against the Bobcats here.
Montana State running back Scottre Humphrey is coming back from injury and is a major X-factor in the ground game. Humphrey has 1,325 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season while averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
His production, along with running quarterback Tommy Mellott, will stress the USD defense unlike any other opponent this season. The Bobcats will gain explosive chunk plays on the ground, and we should see deep shots downfield when the defense has to creep up and stack the box.
Montana State has also been the best red-zone team in FCS all season, scoring on 58-of-60 trips inside the 20-yard line. Fifty of those 58 scores have been touchdowns.
Cashing in during scoring opportunities is critical when it comes to covering the spread, and relying on red-zone turnovers — like USD has done over the last two weeks — is not sustainable. The Bobcats are not flippant with the football and rarely make mistakes, especially at home.
We seem to be on a collision course in FCS, and while South Dakota has its best team in program history, it finds itself in uncharted territory here.
I'm certain the 'Yotes will play with max effort here, but they're not as talented offensively and haven't been playing cohesively enough on defense for me to assume they're going to play perfect football in this game — a requirement when playing Montana State on the road.
Lay it with Montana State up to -9.5.
Pick: Montana State -8 (Play to -9.5)
South Dakota vs Montana State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, MT |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
South Dakota State heads to Bozeman on Saturday, Dec. 21 to take on Montana State in the FCS Playoffs at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
