SMU at Tulane Betting Odds & Pick: Can the Mustangs Overcome Injuries & Stay Undefeated? (Friday, Oct. 16)

SMU at Tulane Betting Odds

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The SMU Mustangs (4-0) will look to extend their winning streak this season to five games against the Tulane Green Wave (2-2) on Friday. The Mustangs haven't lost to Tulane since 2012 and have taken eight of the past nine matchups dating back to 2009.

SMU Mustangs

Sonny Dykes announced season-ending injuries to wide receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. and running back TJ McDaniel. Those losses are significant for the Mustangs, as Roberson led the team with 32 targets.

More importantly, the senior was the most explosive weapon on the SMU offense, accounting for more 20-plus yard passes in 2019 than teammate James Proche.

McDaniel did not provide quite the punch of Roberson but still accounted for half of the team touches on third-down rushing attempts. SMU's offense was one of the best in the nation after four games, ranking 16th in Rushing and sixth in Passing Success Rate. The strength of SMU came on offense, as the defense ranked 54th in line yards and 64th in Power Success.

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Tulane Green Wave

Head coach Willie Fritz has fielded a defense that played 10 quarters of mauling defense through the first three games. South Alabama attempted 30 rushes against the Green Wave and was stuffed on 18, heavily exceeding the national average of 30% run stuffs.

Of 29 rushes from Southern Miss, 15 were stuffed by Tulane. If there are issues in run disruption on an offensive line, the Green Wave have a front seven that can take over a game.

Offensively, gamblers should not be deceived by Tulane's 31 points scored on Houston; the Green Wave were spotted 21 points on turnovers against the Cougars. Houston ended the night with 11 passes exceeding 15 yards against the Tulane back seven. Tulane ranks 72nd in opponent passing plays over 20 yards, just two shy of dead last in FBS play.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The handicap on this game was similar to Tulane and Houston. If the Green Wave face a dynamic passing attack, the opponent could dominate the game.

SMU has the offensive numbers to be successful — not just in Success Rate but in Havoc allowed. The Mustangs have been great at protecting Shane Buechele. Those offensive linemen will be put to the test against a Tulane defense that is sixth in Sack Rate.

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The key stat above is SMU's Passing Success Rate and explosiveness, the two areas Tulane's defense struggles in the most. But the loss of Roberson and McDaniel cannot be understated for the Mustangs offensive firepower.

On the other side of the ball, Tulane should have plenty of success moving the ball on the ground. The Green Wave are the best team in the nation in Line Yards and Power Success, two advanced statistics in which the Mustangs struggle.

Pick: Tulane +6.5 or better

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