Kentucky welcomes Southern Miss to Kroger Field on Saturday for the 7:45 p.m. ET kickoff on SEC Network to open the season.
The Wildcats had another steady year under veteran head coach Mark Stoops in 2023, and they're set up for another trip to a bowl by bringing back an experienced roster.
Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles had a disappointing campaign after winning the 2022 LendingTree Bowl, which makes this a very important season for head coach Will Hall.
This is a complete mismatch in just about every aspect of this game, and I think it gives us great value in fading the visitor.
Continue reading for my Southern Miss vs. Kentucky pick.
Southern Miss vs Kentucky Prediction
- Southern Miss vs Kentucky Pick & Prediction: Southern Miss Team Total Under 10.5
My Southern Miss-Kentucky best bet is on the Southern Miss team total under, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Southern Miss vs Kentucky Odds
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -110 | 50 -108 / -112 | +1800 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 / -112 | -5000 |
- Southern Miss vs Kentucky Point Spread: Southern Miss +24.5 (-110) · Kentucky -24.5 (-110)
- Southern Miss vs Kentucky Total: Over/Under 50
- Southern Miss vs Kentucky Moneyline: Southern Miss +1800 · Kentucky -5000
Southern Miss vs Kentucky Preview
Southern Miss Betting Preview
Coming into last season, there was a lot of optimism that Southern Miss had turned the corner under Hall. He had just led the program to a winning season and a bowl win in its first year in the Sun Belt Conference.
However, it all fell apart for the Golden Eagles, especially on the offensive side of the ball. This is why Hall made a big change in the offseason by hiring Chip Long as his offensive coordinator.
The two played together at North Alabama in 2002 and 2003, and Long has plenty of coaching experience at the FBS level. He held the same position at Notre Dame when the Irish made the College Football Playoff in 2019 while also stopping at Georgia Tech and Tulane.
Another key addition for Hall in the offseason was bringing in Tate Rodemaker to play quarterback. The Florida State transfer takes over an offense that loses all-everything back Frank Gore Jr. to the NFL.
These two moves are the last roll of the dice for Hall, who desperately needs a winning season to keep his job at the school.
Kentucky Betting Preview
After the 5-0 start to the 2023 campaign, Kentucky hit the road to play No. 1 Georgia in the first week of October. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, this bad loss was the start of a rough end of the year for Stoops’ squad.
The Cats would end the season losing five of their last seven regular-season games before also falling to Clemson in the Gator Bowl. They did secure another win over rival Louisville, but the rest of the wins came over losing teams.
Because of this, Stoops also made a change. He brought in former Missouri and Boise State offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to handle the offense.
Stoops also dipped into the portal to bring in two talented quarterbacks in Georgia’s Brock Vandagriff and Rutgers' Gavin Wimsatt. It looks like Vandagriff will enter the season as the starter, but I love the ability Wimsatt provides as a runner in certain packages.
Southern Miss vs Kentucky Pick & Prediction
This game ultimately comes down to finding the best way to back the Southeastern Conference team at home. With the total dropping, I think the best route is to fade the Golden Eagles offense.
With that said, my best bet is for Southern Miss to fall under the team total of 10.5 at BetRivers. I like this play down to a flat 10.
The main issue I see for the visitors here is the mismatch in the trenches. Kentucky's O-line is an experienced unit with 156 career starts.
I expect UK to feature Ohio State transfer running back Chip Trayanum early and often, especially with South Carolina coming up next week. I don’t believe Stoops will want to show too much on film.
When Southern Miss is on offense, the Wildcats return six linemen with starting experience, and they're rated as one of the top units in the country by multiple preseason publications.
With the Golden Eagles breaking in a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, I don’t see them having much time to throw downfield.
Speaking of the new signal-caller, I don’t have much confidence in Rodemaker. His lone start against Florida last season ended with just 134 passing yards, and the Gators outgained the Seminoles in the win.
This Kentucky defense should be just as good with nine starters back.
Ultimately, it’s a game where I don’t see a lot of points for either squad, but I really like the number to fade Southern Miss in this opener.
Pick: Southern Miss Team Total Under 10.5 (Play to 10)
How to Watch Southern Miss vs Kentucky Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Southern Miss vs Kentucky Betting Trends
- Kentucky is taking only 26% of the bets, but the Wildcats have landed 56% of the money.
- The under has taken 53% of the tickets but 76% of the cash.
Southern Miss vs Kentucky Weather
