The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-1, 2-0 SBC) and Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-4, 0-1) meet on the gridiron on Saturday afternoon for a Sun Belt Conference showdown on ESPN+ at 5 p.m. ET.
The Warhawks are off to a terrific start in their first year under coach Bryant Vincent, winning four of their first five games. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles have dropped three straight to fall to 1-4 in what could be the final season for head coach Will Hall.
UL Monroe is listed as a 7-point favorite on the spread, with the total set at over/under 41.5.
I don’t see many points being scored in this one, but I believe this gives us great betting value on a team total opposing a bad offense. Let's get to my Southern Miss vs ULM predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Southern Miss vs ULM Picks, Prediction
- Southern Miss vs ULM Pick: Southern Miss Team Total Under 16.5
My ULM vs Southern Miss best bet is on the Southern Miss team total under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Southern Miss vs ULM Odds, Spread, Lines
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | -205 |
- Southern Miss vs ULM Point Spread: Southern Miss +5.5 · ULM -5.5
- Southern Miss vs ULM Total: Over/Under 41
- Southern Miss vs ULM Moneyline: Southern Miss +170 · ULM -205
Southern Miss Football vs ULM Football Preview
Southern Miss Golden Eagles Betting Preview: Not a Serious Team
Entering his fourth year with the program, all of the pressure was on coach Will Hall to get his team back on track. However, it has not gone as according to plan for Southern Miss.
The difficult part is the fact that the Golden Eagles haven’t been very competitive. In fact, they failed to cover the spread in three of the first four games, which included heavy losses to Kentucky, South Florida and Jacksonville State.
If there is something to be positive about, USM was able to stay within the number in their loss last week the Louisiana. The Golden Eagles also held the Ragin’ Cajuns to their lowest point total of the season at 23.
On the offensive side of the ball, quarterback Tate Rodemaker finished the game with a season-high 71% completion percentage, and Kenyon Clay rushed for a pair of scores.
For USM's sake, hopefully it's a performance the Hall’s team can build on moving forward.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Betting Preview: Quick Turnaround for ULM
There's no other way to put it — Vincent is leading one of the best turnarounds in the country in his first season in Monroe.
With the victory over James Madison, it marks the first time a ULM football team has started 4-1 in the FBS era and is the program's best start since 1993.
The performance also highlighted the strides of the Warhawk defense. JMU entered that matchup after scoring 60-plus points in back-to-back games. However, the Dukes were held to just 19 points in the loss.
The ULM offense has been led by the ground game, which is spearheaded by Ahmad Hardy. The freshman back has scored in four of five contests and topped the century mark twice.
As a program, the Warhawks’ only bowl trip came back in 2012 when they played in the Independence Bowl. Vincent has the team primed for its next bowl appearance in his debut campaign.
How To Make College Football Picks For My Southern Miss vs ULM Prediction
While I do want to back the home team, I can’t lay up to a touchdown on the spread with such a low total. I believe the best route is to put my trust in the ULM defense against what has been a bad Southern Miss offense.
So, my best bet is for the Golden Eagles to fall under their team total of 16.5 points at FanDuel, which I would play down to 14.5. I also don’t hate the idea of an SGP in this spot, pairing a home win with the total going under 39 points or better.
Let’s dive into those offensive numbers for the Golden Eagles.
It's a unit that has only topped this number in one of three games against FBS opponents, and neither of those came on the road. Southern Miss has played 10 quarters since entering halftime against South Florida with 21 points.
During this stretch, USM has only scored 23 points and averaged just 211.5 yards per game against Louisiana and Jacksonville State.
If you go back to last week, the Golden Eagles had the ball for 18:10, surrendering the ball to the Ragin’ Cajuns for over 40 minutes of game time. With how slow the Warhawks are on offense, they could dominate the ball as well against what could be a tired defense after being on the field so much a week ago.
The one area where Southern Miss can be effective is with explosive plays. However, ULM is in the top five among non-Power 4 programs in the stat on limiting big plays on defense. Once you add in the fact that Louisiana Monroe’s defense is also elite at Finishing Drives, I just don’t see many outs for the visitors.
I’m not going to try to sell you on ULM’s offense, but fortunately with this play, I don’t have to worry about it. I’ll just rely on the defense to keep rolling.
Pick: Southern Miss Team Total Under 16.5 (Play to 14.5)
Southern Miss vs ULM Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | JPS Field at Malone Stadium, Monroe, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
ULM vs Southern Miss Betting Trends
ULM vs Southern Miss Weather
