We've got an old-school Pac-12 matchup in Berkeley, California, between the Stanford Cardinal (3-7, 2-5 ACC) and California Golden Bears (5-5, 1-5) on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Both of these teams have had mixed results in their first season in ACC play, but the Bears still have a chance to earn a bid to bowl season with a victory.
Stanford is coming off a monumental 38-35 upset victory over Louisville, whereas the Bears got embarrassed, 33-25, at home as huge favorites against Syracuse.
Cal enters this game as a 14-point favorite and with the over/under set at 54.5.
Let's dive into my Stanford vs. Cal predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.
Stanford vs Cal Prediction
- Stanford vs. Cal Pick: Cal -14
My Cal vs. Stanford best bet is on the Golden Bears to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Stanford vs Cal Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 / -110 | +450 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 / -110 | -600 |
- Stanford vs Cal Spread: Stanford +14.5 (-110) · Cal -14.5 (-110)
- Stanford vs Cal Over/Under: 53.5
- Stanford vs Cal Moneyline: Stanford +450 · Cal -600
Stanford vs Cal Preview
Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview: Letdown Spot?
The Cardinal had their biggest win of the season last week, as they stunned Louisville as 21-point underdogs. It was their third victory of the year, so it’s safe to say this is a letdown spot in the making on Saturday.
The Cardinal offense has been through hell and back, but quarterback Ashton Daniels had his best game of the season against Louisville. The pass explosives are better than I initially deemed from Daniels, but he prefers to use his legs more than his arm.
As bad as the offense has been throughout the season, Stanford ranks 51st in Pass Explosiveness, which allows it to generate those types of plays down the field.
The Stanford offensive front has an uphill battle here, as it's been a weak unit all season. The Cardinal are among the worst teams in the FBS in Rush EPA, which is bizarre considering they favor running the ball more than moving it through the air.
The Cal defense is prone to allowing explosive passes down the field, so there could be an opportunity for Daniels to expose it. However, Stanford ranks outside the top 100 in Quality and Finishing Drives, which adds to the offensive issues.
The Golden Bears defense also thrives on putting their opponents into brutal downs and distances, so I have a bad feeling about the offense's ability to put together drives consistently.
Louisville's defense has been an issue all season, so don't get fooled by last week's offensive performance.
Defensively, it's been just as much of a disaster for the Cardinal. Stanford can't cover well and fails to limit explosives through the air.
The defensive line has been mediocre against the run. While it generates a decent Stuff Rate, it's still allowing explosives on the ground, so the overall defense can allow an explosive play at any moment.
The other issue on defense has been generating stops on third down.
This is also a massive letdown spot for Stanford. I'm sure it's treating last week's win like it was the Super Bowl, which can only lead to the Cardinal coming out flat.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
The Golden Bears lost last week as double-digit home favorites to Syracuse, which had to travel across the country for the matchup. It seemed like a slam dunk spot for Cal, but its defense struggled in the first half.
The Bears are under added pressure, considering they need one more victory to earn a bowl bid. They have SMU on deck, so Saturday is the best time to lock up that bid.
Offensively, it's been a bizzare season.
Running back Jaydn Ott entered the season as one of the country's best backs, but he averages under four yards per carry and has been hurt for a good chunk of the year.
The good news is that the passing attack has been far better than anybody expected.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has 13 touchdown passes to just six INTs. They're also 23rd in Passing Success Rate and generated 12 explosive plays last week against Syracuse.
The Golden Bears throw the ball a lot and should be able to expose a weak Stanford secondary. Against a Cardinal defense that allows a ton of explosives, there should be ample chances for the Golden Bears to put points on the scoreboard.
Defensively, they should limit the explosive plays on the ground, but the defensive front has failed to generate a high Stuff Rate. However, they've been excellent on early downs, forcing their opponents into tough third-down situations.
As long as they can limit the explosives on the ground and through the air, I don't see a reason why the Golden Bears can't bounce back at home.
Stanford vs Cal Pick & Prediction
This is a terrific spot to take the Bears, as they will be hungry to pick up a win to secure a spot in bowl season. It's a large number to lay, but that tells me how much the market realizes how fluky Stanford's win was last week.
Cal has numerous advantages on offense that should expose Stanford's defense, and I think its defensive line will show up in a favorable matchup in the trenches.
This is just a dreadful spot for Stanford. In fact, it's probably still celebrating as I write this.
This a good bounce-back opportunity for Cal, so I'll lay two touchdowns with the Golden Bears at home.
Pick: Cal -14 (Play to -16.5)
Stanford vs Cal Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Stanford heads to Berkeley on Saturday to face Cal at 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Stanford vs Cal Betting Trends
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