Each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's college football slate.
We got a split last week, which at least turned a small profit. Onto Week 12 we go with two road underdogs that can hopefully get us to the window. One kicks off at noon and the other in primetime.
- 2018-19: 29-47 +4.00 units
- 2020: 8-12 +4.30 units
If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays over 5-1 odds.
Stuckey: Georgia Southern +160
- Spread: Army -4
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Date: Saturday, Nov 21
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: CBSSN
- Location: West Point, NY
I'm keeping it simple this week and rolling with the underdog in a matchup of two evenly matched triple-option teams in a game I make closer to a coin flip.
Both teams come into this one with 6-2 records that have been boosted thanks to two of the easiest schedules in the nation so far. Army's six victories have come against three awful FBS programs (Middle Tennessee, Louisiana-Monroe, UTSA) and three FCS schools (The Citadel, Mercer, Abilene Christian).
Army's advantage each week lies in its unique triple-option scheme that opponents are not used to seeing. Well, that edge goes out the window — just like it did against a much inferior Citadel team that also runs the triple option. Army had to hold on for a 14-9 victory in a dead even statistical game.
Georgia Southern practices against the option every day, so the familiarity is there. The Eagles are also very stout against the run, thanks to a defensive line that ranks in the top 20 nationally in Line Yards. They also rank sixth overall in both Stuff Rate and Power Success Rate, per Football Outsiders. Those are two important metrics to evaluate when looking at how a defense will fare against a triple-option offense that relies on converting short-yardage situations to keep the sticks moving.
This will likely come down to a random turnover and red-zone execution in a game that won't have too many possessions. So, I'll gladly take the underdog, which I think also has the more talented backfield with three seniors in quarterback Shai Werts and running backs Wesley Kennedy III and J.D. King.
Wilson: Liberty +145
- Spread: NC State -3.5
- Over/Under: 66.5
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 21
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FSN
- Location: Raleigh, NC
When Liberty football is the topic, the discussion begins with quarterback Malik Willis. The Auburn transfer has not only had success through the air (he ranks third in the nation in passer rating when under pressure) but also with his legs.
Willis actually ranks inside the top 20 in all of FBS in rushing yards (700) at an absurd average clip of 7.1 yards on 98 attempts. And that doesn't even lead the team, as running back Shedro Louis averages 7.9 yards per rush. That ranks second among all backs with at least 50 attempts.
The 8-0 Flames have rushed for at least 180 yards in all eight games this year, including two victories over ACC opponents Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Liberty features a rush-heavy attack, as evidenced by its 62% rush rate. That means a large part of this handicap comes down to the NC State run defense. And the Wolfpack have not been great in that department.
NC State ranks 70th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 54th in Line Yards. Liberty should have no issues efficiently moving the sticks. You may also see plenty of big runs against an NC State defense that ranks 61st in Rush Explosiveness.
Willis averages 4.3 yards after contact and has avoided 33 tackles this season, one of the highest marks in the nation. He also boasts the highest Elusiveness Rating for any rusher with at least 35 attempts, per Pro Football Focus. That spells trouble for a Wolfpack defense that has struggled with missed tackles all season.
Not only have teams gashed NC State on the ground, but they've also beaten it through the air. The Wolfpack defense ranks 72nd in both Pass Explosiveness and Passing Success Rate.
Plus, when teams cross the 40-yard line against NC State, they've had no issues putting up points. The Wolfpack sit at 100th in Finishing Drives on defense.
Willis and company should have no issues moving the ball on the ground, hitting explosive plays and finishing drives off with touchdowns against a very poor NC State defense.
Combine all of that with the fact that the Flames rank 26th in Passing Success, which can neutralize the one real strength of this NC State offense, and you get a very live dog here.
Hugh Freeze has a very good chance of improving to 9-0 on the season, including a perfect 3-0 record against the ACC.
