TCU vs. Baylor Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +115 |
The college football world was once again reminded last week that TCU is not just a Big 12 contender, but an undefeated entity that should compete for the national title.
The Horned Frogs entered Austin against the Longhorns as a touchdown underdog. Questions around the health of the most explosive players on offense buzzed, as the Horned Frogs are guaranteed to play in Arlington for the conference title.
TCU left no doubt in the win with a 99% postgame win expectancy, keeping the Longhorns from finding the end zone of offense.
Baylor lost a crucial conference game against Kansas State in Week 11. The loss not only sends the Bears to three losses in the race for Arlington but puts its season win total over in doubt. The Wildcats used a balanced attack both through the air and on the ground with a backup quarterback in the 31-3 blowout.
Head coach Dave Aranda has been excellent in getting his teams to respond from a loss, going 4-1 against the spread since last season. Now, the Bears have a national stage to knock a national title contender out of the playoff race.
TCU Defense Impressed in Austin
No one has informed the Horned Frogs that college football teams have a minimum of one hangover game per season. TCU has dominated opponents from a total yards perspective, covering the last four games against Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Kansas State.
Pass explosiveness has been the primary weapon for quarterback Max Duggan, who showed no signs of a calf injury that was suffered against the Mountaineers.
Duggan was limited on the ground for the third straight game with only one scramble attempt.
TCU excelled in executing downfield to wide receiver Quentin Johnston. With Biletnikoff consideration upcoming, Johnston averages an explosive 2.9 yards per route run. The junior showed no signs of an ankle injury that preceded the Texas game.
The most impressive unit from the trip to Austin, however, may have been a stellar defensive performance.
Defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie called a masterpiece against Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers.
Cornerback Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson recorded three pass breakups after being targeted on seven different passing attempts. Ewers saw just eight pressures on the game, but the mixing of coverage kept the freshman confused as his targets recorded a season-high four drops.
The Horned Frogs heard the playoff committee's criticism of the defense. TCU held Texas scoreless in the first half at home for the first time since 1997, as defenders singled out star running back Bijan Robinson, failed to record an explosive play.
TCU has been unable to play at this level all season, ranking 113th in pass rush and Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Horned Frogs are still one of the worst teams in allowing chunk plays on passing downs, but if Gillespie can scheme and get the defense to execute like it did against Texas, then TCU will be on its way to the playoff.
Baylor Recovering From Blowout
Baylor's loss to Kansas State came in shocking fashion, as quarterback Adrian Martinez got knocked out of the game early. Backup Will Howard would go on to throw three touchdowns against the Bears defense.
The inefficiencies for Baylor's offense started with quarterback Blake Shapen, who completed just over half of his passing attempts.
Aranda mentioned the struggles in getting his team to be the best version of itself with misalignments and mistakes on defense. The head coach now has the task of getting his team to rebound with a chance of moving up on the bowl position ladder.
This will be Senior Day for the Bears, playing in their final home game of the year with 25 players set to be honored. If Baylor wants to secure the victory for its seniors, freshman running back Richard Reese must return as an explosive option in the backfield.
True freshman 3⭐️ RB Richard Reese scores his 8th rushing TD of the season and Baylor now leads Kansas 14-0 🏈pic.twitter.com/x2sVDuPBSG
— 247Sports (@247Sports) October 22, 2022
Baylor is a run-first team, but the legs of Shapen and Reese have been missing the past two weeks. Reese carried the ball over 30 times in wins over Kansas and Texas Tech before logging just 13 over the past two weeks.
Shapen has been equally ineffective on the ground, tallying just three scrambles for nine yards against Kansas State.
Baylor is a top-25 team in Stuff Rate and Rushing Success, which makes the ground game the biggest key in keeping TCU's offense off the field.
The Bears defense was ill-prepared for Howard to play quarterback for Kansas State. Baylor has had been an excellent coverage unit all season, but Howard's entry into the game had Aranda scrambling to adjust for more passing. Howard finished with three passing touchdowns and not a single turnover-worthy play.
Baylor's defense has been hit-or-miss all season with a key strength in stopping the explosive rush.
The biggest issue is when Baylor gets opponents behind the chains. Aranda's defense ranks 121st in Defensive Standard Downs Success Rate, allowing opponents to convert plenty of long down and distance attempts.
TCU vs Baylor Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Baylor match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 77 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 21 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 50 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 70 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Baylor Offense vs TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 20 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 19 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 113 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 36 | 56 |
| PFF Coverage | 70 | 23 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 47 | 25 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (92) | 26.6 (71) |
| Rush Rate | 56.8% (45) | 58.3% (33) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
TCU vs Baylor Prediction & Betting Pick
Dykes' postgame comments about Texas were those of relief, not just in beating Texas but securing a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Predicting letdown spots in college football can be dicey, but TCU clearly had its sights set on Texas and securing a spot in Arlington.
This TCU team has already far exceeded preseason expectations, but it needs wins over Baylor and Iowa State in its remaining games to stay in the national title picture.
Aranda has had no issues getting his team to respond after a loss. The Bears hold a distinct advantage in rush explosiveness in this game, ranking 18th in rush expected points against the Horned Frogs' defensive rank of 70th.
The key to the game will be in a rebound performance from Shapen against a defense that is poor in eliminating explosive passing. The sophomore's turnover-worthy play rate is cut in half when no pass rush is present, an area where the TCU defensive front struggles.
While Shapen works against a 3-3-5 stack defense that he previously dominated with three touchdowns against Iowa State, Duggan will work against a multi-scheme from Aranda's defense. With scrambling limitations for the TCU quarterback, Baylor will have the advantage in defending the explosive pass.
We project TCU as just a one-point favorite with a total of 60.
The Horned Frogs may be in hangover mode after beating former coach Gary Patterson at Texas. But more importantly, Baylor has the resume to stop explosive plays and knock TCU out of the national title picture.
Pick: Baylor +2.5 |
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