College football comes to Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday afternoon when the Kansas Jayhawks (1-3) and TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) meet for a Big 12 matchup at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
The Jayhawks play their first of four home games this season at the NFL venue while their stadium on campus is under construction.
Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are looking to get their year back on track after consecutive losses to SMU and UCF.
The Jayhawks are favored by two points on the spread and are -125 on the moneyline. Also, the total sits at 59.
Here's my TCU vs. Kansas prediction and pick.
TCU vs Kansas Prediction
- TCU vs Kansas Pick: Kansas ML
My TCU vs Kansas best bet is on the Jayhawks moneyline, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
TCU vs Kansas Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- TCU vs Kansas Point Spread: TCU +2 (-110) · Kansas -2 (-110)
- TCU vs Kansas Total: Over/Under 59
- TCU vs Kansas Moneyline: TCU +105 · Kansas -125
TCU vs Kansas Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Offense Thriving, Defense Struggling
Just two seasons ago, coach Sonny Dykes guided the program to the national championship game. However, the 2022-23 TCU team feels like a distant memory.
The Horned Frogs failed to make a bowl last year, losing four of the final five games down the stretch. This led to a change on the defensive side of the ball where Dykes brought in former Boise State coach Andy Avalos as defensive coordinator.
Unfortunately, Avalos’s transition hasn’t been smooth. TCU gave up over 500 yards to UCF before allowing 66 points to SMU in the Battle for the Iron Skillet.
On the positive side, the offense has still been explosive behind the duo of quarterback Josh Hoover and receiver Jack Bech. Hanks ranks third in the FBS in passing yards (1,418) while tying for seventh in touchdown passes (11).
Bech has been the primary beneficiary of the team’s great passer. He came into this game leading the conference in receiving yards. He has topped 100 yards in three of four contests and will need another big showing here.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: Everyone Believing
When coach Lance Leipold was hired, he knew building Kansas into a respectable football program would take time. He has everyone believing the Jayhawks can be more than a basketball school.
Kansas is fresh off its first winning season since 2007, and Leipold has led the program to its first back-to-back trips to a bowl game since the 2006-07 teams.
The key to the success has been the offense, led by great quarterback play. Whether that has been Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean, both have had success under Leipold.
After Bean departed in the offseason, the pressure is on Daniels. Although he has not had great injury luck over the past two seasons, his talent level is very high.
TCU vs Kansas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Kansas match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Kansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 70 | 83 | |
Kansas Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 64 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 77 | 103 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 53 |
| PFF Coverage | 45 | 56 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 77 | 9 |
| Middle 8 | 52 | 103 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (21) | 29.0 (102) |
| Rush Rate | 41% (127) | 61% (28) |
TCU vs Kansas Pick & Prediction
When I analyze this matchup, I see too many advantages for Kansas.
So, my best bet is to take the Jayhawks on the moneyline. I would play this up to -135 or -2.5 on the spread.
Let’s start with what will happen when KU has the ball — the Jayhawks rank in the top 25 nationally in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards.
This is not good for a TCU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in the FBS in both categories. The unit allowed over 200 rushing yards each to SMU and UCF.
Meanwhile, I also trust the Jayhawks to succeed more at getting stops when the Horned Frogs are on offense. Dykes’ squad is going to attack through the air, entering this game in the Bottom 10 in the country in rush rate.
This plays right into Kansas’ hands, owning a defense that is 26th in the FBS in pass success. The unit is also solid in PFF’s Coverage rankings, which gives me more confidence in this spot.
I see this game playing out in a manner in which the Jayhawks can control the time of possession, leaving TCU’s defense on the field for long stretches.
Once you add that Kansas also owns the edge in special teams, I like the price here to get the home team on the moneyline.
Give me the Jayhawks to get a win to get this season back on track.
Pick: Kansas ML (-135 or Better)
How to Watch TCU vs Kansas Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
TCU vs Kansas Betting Trends
- TCU is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS
- Kansas is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS
