TCU vs Kansas State Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
The two teams that played in last year's Big 12 Championship will collide in the Little Apple on Saturday, as Kansas State hosts TCU.
Kansas State took to the road for two consecutive conference games, losing in Stillwater to Oklahoma State before securing a victory at Texas Tech. The Wildcats return home for a pair of games with a potential quarterback controversy halfway through the season.
The good news for Kansas State is a friendly schedule to end the year, leaving the state of Kansas just once with no games against conference-leading Oklahoma.
TCU has started off the season with continuous hurdles, from a large pull in the transfer portal to a bit of bad luck. The national runner-up turned over nearly its entire roster while dealing with an injury at the quarterback position.
The Horned Frogs have been unlucky in games, per postgame win expectancy, pulling one of the lowest numbers in second-order win total through seven games.
TCU's wins have been by multiple scores, while losses to Colorado and West Virginia each came by a field goal.
With Texas and Oklahoma on the schedule to close out November, two-loss TCU is in desperation mode to reach Arlington.
TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs hit rock bottom two seasons ago with the departure of Gary Patterson, as each of the defensive metrics landed in the cellar of all Power 5 teams.
Head coach Sonny Dykes came in to rehabilitate the program, hiring two coordinators who led the same group of players to the national title game.
Defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie entered Fort Worth with a 3-3-5 scheme that did plenty of damage in the AAC at Tulsa.
The same scheme and blitz rate from 2022 has carried over with new faces this season, supported by a pair of strong linebackers. Namdi Obiazor leads the team in tackles, while middle linebacker Jamoi Hodge paces the unit in pressures.
The nickel stack defense ranks top-40 in the most important categories, from limiting explosive plays to Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. TCU continues to rank mid-FBS in creating Havoc and defending the rush, showing a strong Success Rate in Cover 1.
On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Kendal Briles brought his brand of tempo Air Raid to Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs are now one of the fastest offenses in the nation at 21.6 seconds per play.
With quarterback Chandler Morris' sprained MCL, Dykes turned to Rockwell-Heath High School product Josh Hoover against BYU.
Next-level play from Josh Hoover. Freezes the LB with his field vision. Works his progressions.
Can’t believe this is his first collegiate start. pic.twitter.com/qRnV8qkMsl
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 14, 2023
Hoover has elevated the Horned Frogs offense, meaning Morris may lose his starting position for a second consecutive season.
Hoover racked up 439 yards and four touchdowns in his first collegiate start against the Cougars, posting his highest NFL grade on passes between the hash marks.
If there's an area of focus for the Horned Frogs, it's red-zone play-calling. Briles struggled at Arkansas in a similar matter, as the shortened field limited his play-call selection.
TCU ranks 128th in red-zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown in just 15-of-29 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Kansas State Wildcats
All Kansas State talk centers around the quarterback position for a second consecutive season.
Incumbent Will Howard led the Wildcats to the Big 12 Championship last season, sharing snaps with super senior Adrian Martinez.
Now, Howard has a different quarterback battle, as freshman Avery Johnson burst onto the scene against Texas Tech with five rushing touchdowns.
Avery Johnson đź‘€
If I’m a K-State fan, I’m very excited for the future with this kid.pic.twitter.com/6D4MEFFbWq
— Max Olson (@max_olson) October 15, 2023
Head coach Chris Klieman released a Week 8 depth chart with an "OR" between Howard and Johnson as starter. Howard is presumed to be the better passer, although Johnson has completed 11 of his 13 passes for 132 yards this season.
Kansas State has been fantastic at staying on schedule, ranking top-25 in Standard Downs Success Rate. Expect the offense to rotate both quarterbacks from series to series, similar to Howard and Martinez last season.
The 3-3-5 defense from defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has been fantastic against the run, currently ranking top-10 nationally in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The issue for the defense is the stoppage of pass explosives, allowing eight passes beyond 40 yards this season.
The Wildcats rarely send blitz with five or more defenders, opting to play quarters coverage against opponent passing attempts.
TCU vs Kansas State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Kansas State match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 35 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 52 | |
Kansas State Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 35 | 68 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 74 | 36 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 14 | 87 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 105 | 70 |
| Middle 8 | 61 | 119 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.6 (4) | 25.6 (46) |
| Rush Rate | 49.1% (104) | 54.8% (47) |
TCU vs Kansas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The emergence of Johnson under center for the Wildcats is sure to be the primary factor during film study for TCU. The freshman has collected nearly all of his yards in designed rushing attempts, utilizing gap concepts with plenty of power and pulling lineman calls.
This has been an area of weakness for TCU, particularly when opposing offenses pull linemen. TCU has a low 40% Success Rate against pull-lead run concepts, lower than its current ranks in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Whether Howard or Johnson are leading the charge, Kansas State should stay in standard downs and ahead of the chains.
TCU is expected to counter With Hoover's arm, as K-State's rush defense is the best in the Big 12. Both Morris and Hoover have dominated Cover 3 this season, but Kansas State runs that version of coverage on just 9% of opponent passing attempts.
The Wildcats will line up in quarters coverage, an area the TCU offense has struggled against with a 43.6% Success Rate and no explosiveness.
Action Network projects Kansas State at -9, putting plenty of value on the Wildcats.
TCU would have the pass explosive advantage over Kansas State considering the overall number of expected points in passing attempts, but the Horned Frogs dominate Cover 3 and not quarters. Hoover lit up BYU for 439 yards and four touchdowns, but that came against a defense that plays nearly all coverage snaps in Cover 3.
Kansas State's commitment to quarters coverage will be an issue for the TCU offense.
Conversely, the Horned Frogs may have no answer for the Johnson-designed rush attack that's led by numerous pulling linemen.
All of these factors are enough to get an investment down on Kansas State during its push to make the conference championship game.
