It's a strange time for the Utah Utes (4-2, 1-2 Big 12), as it was announced earlier this week that quarterback Cam Rising will miss the rest of the season, inviting questions about whether or not he'll return for an 8th season.
With the buzz surrounding the program, they are ready to take on the visiting TCU Horned Frogs (3-3, 1-2).
The Frogs are coming off a terrible loss 30-19 at home to Houston, in which they were 16.5-point favorites. They’ve had a bye week in between to regroup and get ready for the Utes.
Oddsmakers make Utah a 3.5-point home favorite, with the total set at 49.5.
Let’s get to the matchup breakdown with my TCU vs. Utah predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
TCU vs Utah Prediction
- TCU vs. Utah Pick: TCU +3.5
My TCU–Utah best bet is on the Horned Frogs to cover, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
TCU vs Utah Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- TCU vs Utah Spread: TCU +3.5 (-110) · Utah -3.5 (-110)
- TCU vs Utah Over/Under: 49.5 Points (-110o / -110u)
- TCU vs Utah Moneyline: TCU +140 · Utah -165
TCU vs Utah Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: A Major Task Ahead
The Frogs were punched in the mouth two weeks ago against Houston. They allowed over 360 yards of offense, and the Cougars entered the game as one of the worst offensive teams in the Power 4.
Head coach Sonny Dykes has quickly gone from hero to almost zero, as the Frogs have plummeted ever since they were destroyed by Georgia in the National Championship back in 2023.
This is a massive game for TCU's season, and it’ll be a statement game for Dykes off a bye.
The Horned Frogs have a tall task against an excellent Utes defense, which you can argue is the best defense in the Big 12. However, quarterback Josh Hoover has put up big-time numbers with over 2,000 passing yards and 16 touchdown passes.
He didn’t play his best against Houston, but much of the blame falls on the Frogs defense.
Speaking of the defense, it's by far the worst unit of this team. The Frogs rank 96th in Havoc and outside the top 100 in Quality Drives Allowed.
Luckily, they get a break with no Rising, but it's still worth mentioning. The offense is practically inept in itself, and the defense could find more success than usual.
The defense also sits 22nd in PFF Tackling and 40th in PFF Coverage. That tells me the stop unit is underrated and could easily be in for a much-improved effort off a bye against a bad signal-caller.
Utah Utes Betting Preview: Eyes on Isaac
Rising is one of the more devastating stories in 2024, as the seventh-year college football vet may never play in the college ranks again. He’s had an incredible career, but he’ll have the chance to stay next season due to another medical waiver.
It’s officially Isaac Wilson time in Salt Lake City.
The freshman has thrown six touchdowns and seven interceptions thus far and has the opportunity to grow. He has played meaningful snaps in only three games, so the sample size is still small. But it's worth noting that he has thrown for over 200 yards and at least one score in all three contests.
The Utes rank 105th in Pass Success Rate, as their offense is clearly completely different without Rising. They’re also 114th in Finishing Drives, so consistent touchdown drives are a rarity for Kyle Whittingham’s group.
Defensively, the Utes have been elite in almost every metric besides tackling. They sit top-20 in Rush Success Rate Allowed, Finishing Drives Allowed and Pass Success Rate Allowed.
They have an excellent coverage grading and generate a decent amount of Havoc. The defense isn't going to be enough to win against a high-flying TCU aerial attack, but it should keep them in the game and do enough to set the offense up for success.
Theoretically, this would be a normal boost and a good spot for a struggling offensive unit, but there's no telling what the mindset of the locker room will be after the Rising news.
Wilson also turns the ball over far too much for me to trust the offense to take advantage of a soft matchup.
TCU vs Utah Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Utah match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Utah Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 24 |  |
| Havoc | 49 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 97 | 15 | |
Utah Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 101 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 87 | |
| Quality Drives | 61 | 105 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 41 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 124 | 85 |
| Middle 8 | 50 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.3 (18) | 30.0 (124) |
| Rush Rate | 42% (120) | 55% (53) |
TCU vs Utah Pick & Prediction
The best bet in this game is TCU +3.5. It’s a bit of a contrarian pick, but I think it's an excellent time to buy it off a bye week.
The Frogs got embarrassed last time out at home against Houston, so I’m sure Dykes is going to ensure his team is fully prepared for this matchup.
I also have no clue what the headspace of the Utes' locker room will be. Rising is the heart and soul of the team, so it can't be easy losing him again.
It’s extremely tough to win a road game at Utah, no matter who’s playing QB. However, I think Hoover is good enough to counter a strong Utes secondary.
The line has already sunk since it opened, so I’m going to lock it in now before the number dips any further.
Pick: TCU +3.5 (Play to +3)
How to Watch TCU vs Utah Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
TCU vs Utah Betting Trends
- 66% of bets and 75% of the money are on TCU to cover the spread
- 98% of bets and 76% of the money on the moneyline are on Utah to win outright
- 75% of bets and 80% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
