The Tennessee Volunteers (8-1, 5-1 SEC) and Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, 5-2) will clash in a high-stakes affair that could serve as an elimination game from both the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff on Saturday night. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The SEC race could induce a 7-way tie at the top of the standings, but the 1st domino to the path of tiebreaker chaos comes if Georgia can knock Tennessee into the land of 2-losses. The Bulldogs will host the Volunteers with their season on the line after taking a 28-10 loss to Ole Miss in Week 11.
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is on track for his first trip to the SEC title game but needs victories in Athens and in a Week 14 trip to Vanderbilt.
Tennessee has enjoyed 4 consecutive victories at home after losing to Arkansas in Fayetteville and struggling to score points in Norman against Oklahoma.
The point spread in this game opened at Georgia -9, but early-week wagering has seen the Bulldogs float closer to a 10-point favorite. The over/under, meanwhile, comes in at 48.5.
My Tennessee vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16 are below.
Tennessee vs Georgia Prediction
- Tennessee vs. Georgia Pick: First Half Under 24
My Georgia vs. Tennessee best bet is on both teams to stay under the first-half total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Tennessee vs Georgia Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 48 -110 / -110 | +290 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 48 -110 / -110 | -370 |
- Tennessee vs Georgia Spread: Tennessee +9.5 (-110) · Georgia -9.5 (-110)
- Tennessee vs Georgia Over/Under: 48 Points
- Tennessee vs Georgia Moneyline: Tennessee +290 · Georgia -370
Tennessee vs Georgia Preview
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview: Will Iamaleava Play?
The biggest news for the Volunteers in Week 12 will be the availability of quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
An upper-body injury in the second half against Mississippi State was referenced in Heupel's press conference, as he said his quarterback will "be in a good spot" in terms of his status for Georgia.
The second-year quarterback had hit a stride over the past three games against the defenses of Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State. During that stretch, Iamaleava created six big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play.
Still, a head injury suffered at the hands of the Bulldogs put the quarterback in concussion protocol this week.
This was the last hit Nico took, but then came back in for two plays before the half pic.twitter.com/BlDvfn7g3E
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) November 10, 2024
With Iamaleava out, Tennessee would send out fourth-year reserve Gaston Moore, who completed 5-of-8 passes to conclude the Mississippi State win. Moore has limited experience since the 2021 season, connecting on two touchdowns and throwing three interceptions over 42 career passing attempts.
Without Iamaleava, expect the Volunteers to shift into a full-on rush attack led by running back Dylan Sampson.
The junior has been one of the best rushers in the nation, just shy of Iowa's Kaleb Johnson and Boise State's Ashton Jeanty in touchdowns on the season.
With a top-30 rank in Line Yards, Tennessee will grind on the ground if Iamaleava isn't available.
Defensive coordinator Tim Banks has produced one of the most Havoc-minded defenses in college football thanks to a wrecking crew on the defensive line.
Edge James Pearce Jr. has doubled every other Tennessee player in pressures, generating the third-highest total nationally (43).
The secondary was the biggest question mark entering the season but has proved to be a strength for the Vols. Tennessee ranks top-40 in coverage grading and in creating contested catches.
A top-two ranking in third-down defense and Quality Drives has played a large factor in Tennessee going under the total in five of its past six SEC games.
Georgia Bulldogs Betting Preview: Can Beck Get Back on Track?
In order to maintain a 28-game winning streak at home, Georgia must avoid losing a third SEC game. This will be the last game in SEC play with the Bulldogs finishing the season against UMass and Georgia Tech.
Health has been the primary concern on the offensive line, as left tackle Earnest Greene has fought through injuries while posting blocking grades that have fallen below last year's efficiency.
Greene allowed nearly half of his season total pressures in two of the past three games against Texas and Ole Miss.
In a similar vein, pressure has been the driving factor behind the negative play of quarterback Carson Beck over the past three games.
Carson Beck INT!
Looks like a big win on the way for Lane pic.twitter.com/xjLesTTIte
— NMD Grant (@NMDgrant) November 9, 2024
Beck has spiraled through his past 12 quarters, committing eight turnover-worthy plays without recording a single big-time throw.
The pressure has been dialed up as well with 37 of the 80 pressures this season coming in the past three games.
Greene hasn't been alone, as right guard Xavier Truss and center Jared Wilson have each had poor pass-blocking games in conference play.
Head coach Kirby Smart was complimentary of running backs Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier for highlight yards against Ole Miss, an option that may be required against a Tennessee defensive line that dominates against the pass.
Georgia committed seven turnovers and had just two takeaways in losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. Smart emphasized the need for more rip-outs on defense, noting that turnover margin is a two-way street.
The defense is as healthy as any point this season with edge Mykel Williams at full speed and linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. returning after a six-week absence.
Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann has seen his unit fall outside of the top 50 in Havoc while ranking 114th in passes defensed.
From a run concept standpoint, the Bulldogs have been mid-FBS against inside zone and power but have been dominating teams that attempt outside zone and counter.
The 3-3-5 scheme was highly successful in dominating the Ole Miss rushing attack, allowing a 28% Success Rate while stuffing 40% of attempts from the Rebels.
The dominant factor in the win over Texas was limiting scoring attempts — the Longhorns scored just 1.7 points per trip on possessions that crossed the 40-yard line.
Tennessee vs Georgia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and Georgia match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs. Georgia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 28 |  |
| Pass Success | 11 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 47 | |
Georgia Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 49 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 91 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 1 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 49 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 43 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 42 | 4 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (14) | 27.7 (82) |
| Rush Rate | 62% (17) | 45% (115) |
Tennessee vs Georgia Pick & Prediction
Iamaleava's status could leave Tennessee one-dimensional on offense. Thankfully for the Vols, that element is the rushing attack, led by Sampson and a heavy amount of inside zone and power run concepts.
The Georgia defense has been mid-FBS in Success Rate against inside zone but has elite numbers in efficiency and creating negative plays against power.
One aspect favoring the Bulldogs is the ability to tackle in space, ranking 21st in broken tackles allowed. Without Iamaleava, Tennessee will be methodical on the ground and struggle to cash in on opportunities with a rank of 82nd in Finishing Drives.
Smart made one thing clear in his weekly press conference: there will be no change at quarterback. Beck's penchant for turnovers will not mix well with a Volunteers defense that's top-five in Havoc.
Scoring should be slow from the start, as each team has fallen outside the top half of all FBS teams in rush and pass explosiveness.
Methodicals by Beck are unexpected against a Tennessee defense that's the best nationally in preventing Quality Drives. Without Iamaleava under center, Georgia would be able to stack the box defensively against Sampson.
Pick: First Half Under 24 or Better
Tennessee vs Georgia Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Tennessee takes on Georgia in Athens on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Tennessee vs Georgia Betting Trends
- 48% of bets and 57% of the money are on Tennessee to cover the spread
- 64% of bets and 81% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Tennessee vs Georgia Weather
