Tennessee vs Oklahoma Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 57 -108 / -112 | -270 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 57 -108 / -112 | +220 |
Josh Heupel returns to Norman after a storied career that includes stops as a Heisman runner-up and an assistant coach for Oklahoma. The Tennessee head coach led the effort in Norman during a run to the National Championship in 2000 before getting fired as OU's offensive coordinator in 2014, failing to meet the program's standard under Bob Stoops.
Now, Heupel will lead the Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) into Norman to face the Brent Venables-led Oklahoma Sooners (3-0).
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium is expected to filled with fans with mixed feelings. That might not last long, though, as the Sooners are in desperate need of a victory after struggles in nonconference play.
A rout of Temple in the opener covered up a 10% Success Rate on two dozen passing downs, while a near loss to Houston further demonstrated struggles in the passing game, averaging 4.7 yards per play.
For Sooners to keep up with Heupel and the Vols, explosive plays must come through the air.
Tennessee enters this SEC showdown as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5. So, where does the betting value lie? Let's dive into my Tennessee vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
Tennessee Volunteers Football
The Volunteers' wide-split tempo offense has been in full gear since the first snap of the season.
With a flavor of Art Briles' Veer-and-Shoot and a mix of Air Raid concepts, a quarterback who can mix RPO gives Tennessee one of the most electric offenses in the nation.
Nico Iamaleava is on track to be the best quarterback to ever run the Heupel offense, already firing six touchdowns while posting nearly 100 yards in the rushing game.
Numerous weapons on the outside have taken the next step in terms of explosiveness as well. Wideout Chris Brazzell II and slot Squirrel White both have greater than two yards per route run.
Nico 53 yard deep ball to Chris Brazzell, TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/YnWzczEpFC
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) September 15, 2024
Against the secondaries of Kent State, NC State and Chattanooga, Iamaleava has led Tennessee to a top-25 rank in on-target rate, a measure of accuracy in the passing game.
The surprising element to this point has been the rushing attack. Running back Dylan Sampson has posted 4.7 yards after contact while collecting nine rushing touchdowns against the nonconference competition.
Defensive coordinator Tim Banks has seen an improvement on defense through three weeks of play.
The Volunteers lead the nation in Defensive Quality and Finishing Frives, but an uptick in Havoc has played a major factor so far this season. Tennessee has already collected 20 tackles for loss and 16 passes defensed on the season.
Edge James Pearce Jr. continues to dominate offensive tackles, leading the team in pressures thus far.
If there's an area that went untested through the first 25% of the season, it's the secondary. The 2023 two-deep depth chart was emptied in the offseason, so the Vols added three transfers with experience from Temple, Oregon State and Middle Tennessee.
Former Beaver cornerback Jermod McCoy has the highest coverage grading so far, recording two pass breakups on the season. Outside of three forced incompletions, no other player in the secondary has a high coverage grade.
Safeties Will Brooks and Andre Turrentine have allowed 5-of-6 targets to be caught, while cornerback Boo Carter has allowed the most yards after catch on the team.
Banks is expected to continue utilizing a high amount of zone in Cover 3.
Oklahoma Sooners Football
The biggest statistic that indicates the winner of a game is the Success Rate battle. Although Oklahoma is undefeated, the Sooners hang outside the top 90 in terms of Rushing Success Rate and rank a poor 121st in Passing Success Rate.
Offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh is respected as one of the best in the business, but five new starters in the trench have had a direct impact on passing attempts for the Sooners.
Sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold has already faced 28 pressures through three games, completing 6-of-16 pass attempts with two interceptions in a crowded pocket.
However, Arnold has been tremendous in a clean pocket, generating six touchdowns without recording a turnover-worthy play.
I think Jackson Arnold will be the best QB in college football before the season ends. pic.twitter.com/aAFR6htHkR
— Christian Williams (@CWilliamsNFL) August 30, 2024
The offensive line has also struggled in run blocking from a Line Yards and Stuff Rate perspective through three games.
However, the Sooners saw improvement in their latest game against Tulane. The Green Wave stuffed OU at a national average rate, while the Sooners produced five explosives runs.
Nearly half of OU's drives featured two or more first downs, as it also generated multiple methodical and explosive drives.
Oklahoma exceeded the national average in Finishing Drives, a metric that looks at points per drive that extends beyond the opponent's 40-yard line. The numbers are a positive development against a Tulane defense that's top-35 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
The defense has carried the water for Oklahoma so far this season, producing top-30 ranks in tackling, Opponent Quality Drives and Havoc.
Defensive coordinator Zac Alley has generated one of the toughest defenses in the nation against the rush. Entering Week 4, the Sooners sit top-10 in Opponent Rushing Success Rate and rush explosives.
The focus against Tennessee will certainly be on a secondary that pivots between Cover 3 and quarters. Venables is sure to replicate Georgia head coach Kirby Smart's “mint” package featured in quarters coverage.
Oklahoma’s best weapon against Tennessee's offense will be interrupting receiver routes to throw off the timing between the receiver and Iamaleava.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Tennessee match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 24 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 51 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 16 | |
Oklahoma Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 94 | 1 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 51 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 48 | 59 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 27 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 11 | 90 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.4 (12) | 25.4 (32) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (24) | 55% (63) |
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Betting Pick & Prediction
While the focus is on Heupel’s return to Norman, there may not be anyone who knows the Tennessee head coach more than Venables. The current Oklahoma head coach was the defensive coordinator for the Sooners from 1999-2011.
That time span covers Heupel’s time in Norman as a player, quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator. There's no lack of familiarity between the two coaches in this Week 4 clash.
The first handicap resides in Oklahoma's offensive line keeping a clean pocket for Arnold — a tough assignment against Pearce.
Starting tackle Michael Tarquin possesses the highest pass-blocking grade of any starting offensive lineman. Tarquin has experience at both tackle positions but is expected to stay on the right side, where Pearce plays most of his snaps.
With a clean pocket, Arnold will have to continue his streak of not making a turnover-worthy play.
Another positive for Sooners comes in the secondary, as safety Robert Spears-Jennings ranks as the seventh-best individual pass coverage defender in the nation. Cornerback Kani Walker also pulls a top-125 coverage grade of all defenders in FBS, per PFF.
Fellow cornerback Dez Malone deserves mention for his play this season, allowing just 3-of-10 targets to be caught while recording two pass breakups.
Action Network's betting power ratings make this game less than a field goal, which os especially notable after steam hit the Tennessee number.
Market inflation was to be expected with Oklahoma’s struggles, while Tennessee routed NC State on a neutral field in Charlotte.
With the progression of the Sooners' offensive line and a secondary with high coverage grades, Memorial Stadium will provide a boost against Heupel's wide-split spread. Expect Oklahoma to challenge for an outright victory.
Pick: Oklahoma +7 or Better
