Tennessee vs South Carolina Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 66 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 66 -110o / -110u | +1050 |
A night game on the road at Williams-Brice for a College Football Playoff hopeful. What could possibly go wrong?
The Tennessee Volunteers have avoided every single trap that's been laid for them this season. The odds say Josh Heupel puts another 25 cents in the merry-go-round and watches his star-studded offense run loops around a middling conference opponent in Week 12 Saturday.
South Carolina earned the key sixth win a couple weeks ago against Vanderbilt and immediately laid an egg last Saturday. The offense didn't score a single point in a thrashing to a down Florida team.
But as always, stocks trend up and down, and thankfully, we get to treat teams like assets.
Who are we buying and selling in the SEC clash Saturday? I firmly think there's value on one team in particular against the spread.
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee bypassed the patented letdown spot in Week 11 vs. Missouri, seven days from getting thumped by Georgia for the program's first loss of the season.
All Heupel did was orchestrate a school-record 724 yards against a formidable Tigers defense, as quarterback Hendon Hooker went off 405 total yards and four scores.
It's a microcosm of what makes the Volunteers essentially Diet 2019 LSU.
Hooker is in the top tier of Heisman candidates, wide receiver Jalin Hyatt leads his position in touchdowns nationally, and the Vols have jammed the boot on the pedal in Heupel's high-octane offense.
The Volunteers are seventh nationally in Finishing Drives and Pace. They can run the ball, too, ranking 15th and 16th in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively.
The Vols are 8-2 to the team total over this season. One of those two losses was the Georgia game; the other missed by a half-point against Pitt.
Tennessee's defense can be as volatile as a discount store mood ring, but can the Gamecocks present enough looks to actually challenge the Volunteers?
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina was a 'tweener entering the year. They're 'dogs to cash their regular-season win total over of 6.5 — it's been ugly at times despite being oh-so-close.
The Spencer Rattler 2.0 experiment has been underwhelming, and the running back room is a question mark entering Week 12.
Head coach Shane Beamer is still up in the air regarding the statuses of both Marshawn Lloyd and Christian Beal-Smith, who were both limited this week ahead of the Tennessee matchup.
South Carolina is exactly dead-even in net yards per play this season — they're gaining 5.5 a pop, but matching that on the defensive side of the ball. And speaking of defense, the 'Cocks can get after the quarterback, ranking 25th in Pass Rush.
However, Tennessee's penchant for getting the ball out quick and keeping Hooker clean makes that virtually a moot point: The Vols are 11th in the country at allowing Havoc.
Tennessee vs South Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and South Carolina match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 63 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 107 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 81 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
South Carolina Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 82 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 50 | 99 | |
| Havoc | 128 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 20 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 53 | 78 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 114 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 20 | 29 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.4 (7) | 27.1 (85) |
| Rush Rate | 57.0% (43) | 52.0% (73) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Tennessee vs South Carolina Betting Pick
Tennessee just wanted to get out of Week 11 unscathed. Missouri didn't oblige. Heupel said, "OK, here's 66 points down your larynx; have a nice bus ride home."
Admittedly, I can't envision a scenario in which there's as much conviction against a hapless South Carolina team.
Although the Gamecocks dealt with the flu bug and injuries last week, I have no interest in buying a team that has locked up bowl eligibility and has Tennessee and Clemson (on the road) to close it out.
In reality, there should be little resistance for Tennessee's top-ranked offense in what just feels like a Jabari Small game for Tennessee, having such a monumental advantage in the trenches against Cocky's invisible rush D.
I'll play the matchup and the price, the latter of which feels extremely cheap for two teams on complete ends of the spectrum.
Pick: Tennessee -21.5 |
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