The Texas A&M Aggies (1-1) and Florida Gators (1-1) meet for a very important SEC game in Week 3 with both teams now in must-win territory.
Texas A&M is a consensus 3-point favorite against Florida as of Saturday afternoon. The over/under is 45.5 points. Texas A&M is a -155 favorite to pick up the road win, with the Gators +130 on the moneyline to win outright.
Texas A&M comes into Saturday off of a 52-10 win over McNeese State in Week 2 where the Aggies failed to cover the 46.5-point spread. Florida put up a big winning margin of its own in a 45-7 victory over Samford last Saturday, although the Gators just missed out on covering the 38.5-point spread in their 38-point victory.
Continue reading for my Texas A&M vs. Florida predictions below and my college football picks and predictions for Week 3 on Saturday.
Texas A&M vs. Florida Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 45 -108o / -112u | -155 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 45 -108o / -112u | +130 |
- Texas A&M vs. Florida spread: Texas A&M -3
- Texas A&M vs. Florida over/under: 45 points
- Texas A&M vs. Florida moneyline: Texas A&M -155, Florida +130
- Texas A&M vs. Florida pick: Over 45 | Bet to 47.5
My Florida vs Texas A&M best bet for today is on the over, which has moved in our favor since I first gave out this prediction for Saturday. Currently, the best line is over/under 45, so be sure to shop around. And if the line continues to move, know that I would bet this up to 47.5.
Be sure to check out our live NCAAF odds page for all the latest line movement.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Florida Gators College Football
Texas A&M Football
Collin Klein is now the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M, which is an improvement over former head coach Jimbo Fisher.
The Aggies will focus on running the football in Klein's offense, as the former Wildcat called runs on 55% of plays last season. The Aggies really struggled to establish the run against Notre Dame, averaging under four yards per carry.
Both of their top two running backs, Le'Veon Moss and Amari Daniels, are back. Last season, the two of them combined for 5.1 yards per carry, and now they're running behind a very experienced offensive line.
The problem against Notre Dame was quarterback Conner Weigman. The Cypress, Texas, native went 12-for-30 for only 100 yards and two interceptions, so it looks like it's going to take some time for him to grasp Klein's offense.
The start was a bit peculiar considering Weigman played well before getting injured in 2023. In his four starts, he put up a PFF passing grade of 90.9 and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt.
Luckily for A&M, Florida's secondary was terrible last season, so Weigman should be much better on Saturday.
Defensively, the Aggies need to focus on their run defense. It was concerning how successful Notre Dame was on the ground. Elko has a really talented defensive front, but the Irish averaged well over five yards per carry.
On top of that, Texas A&M is relying entirely on transfers in the secondary, which could be a problem against Florida's quarterback duo of Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway.
Florida Football
Meanwhile, Florida was terrible in the opener against Miami, which is a really bad sign given how difficult its schedule is this season. The Gators have the nation's hardest schedule with a coach on the hot seat — not a good combination.
In Week 1, the Hurricanes put up over 500 yards of offense, which is also something Texas A&M is capable of doing.
Mertz missed the game against Samford last weekend with a concussion, but he's expected to start on Saturday with Lagway also receiving some reps.
Mertz was one of the most accurate passers in college football last season. Not only did he complete over 70% of his passes, but he also ranked ninth in catchable ball percentage and 14th in on-target percentage, per Sports Info Solutions.
He has a really good group of receivers to throw to as well, especially Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger. Eugene Wilson, a talented speedster for the Gators, is listed as questionable for this game, so make sure to monitor his status.
Texas A&M's brand-new secondary proves a pretty decent matchup for the Gators, but more importantly, they need to establish the run.
The offensive line will be improved from last season, and they have leading rusher Montrell Johnson back for another season. He put up over 100 yards on the ground against Miami, and given the way Notre Dame ran the ball, he should find some success as well.
There are certain run concepts Florida has had a lot more success with this season. Setting up play-action attempts for Mertz also puts the Gators in a position for a high EPA/Play mark.
📊Offensive Playcalling Advanced Stat Sheets
Florida
▫️Lots of motion
▫️Slightly heavier TE usage than most
▫️PA usage low compared to 2023
▫️Playing well vs Blitz
▫️Heavy focus on IZ run game🗣️Let me know who else you want to see in the comments
Data:@football_sispic.twitter.com/9yLyxNFrjw
— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) September 11, 2024
However, Florida's defense lost a lot from last year's team and really doesn't look a whole lot better.
The secondary is a big issue. That unit returns only two starters after ranking 110th in EPA/Pass Allowed. Plus, starting strong safety Asa Turner may not play in this game.
Up front, the Gators bring back only two of their top six tacklers from last season, so they're going to have a tough time stopping Texas A&M after what Miami did to them in Week 1.
Texas A&M vs. Florida Pick: Target the Total
Klein's offense is designed to use the run game to open up the passing game. So, establishing the run is key for the Aggies so they don't put a lot of pressure on Weigman.
With that said, Florida was terrible against the pass last season and returns only two starters in the secondary.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward torched the Gators for 385 yards and over 11 yards per attempt, so this is a really solid bounce-back opportunity for Weigman and the Aggies.
On the other side, Mertz and Lagway have both been accurate quarterbacks in Gainesville and have a talented group of receivers to throw to.
Notre Dame's Riley Leonard didn't have much success throwing against Texas A&M's secondary, but Mertz is much more accurate and a way better downfield passer.
If Florida can establish the run like Notre Dame did, it's going to set up play action for Mertz, who averaged 9.3 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in that concept last season.
The total here is pretty low given the advantages that both teams have on the offensive side of the ball. The pace should also be fairly quick with Klein's offense at Kansas State ranking 49th in seconds per play last season and Florida increasing its pace by almost two seconds per play through two games.
So, I really like the value on over 47.5 points. Plus, betting overs with Napier has been profitable since he's been at Florida.
Pick: Over 47.5
How to Watch Florida vs. Texas A&M: Time, TV Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
Texas A&M vs. Florida Betting Trends
- 54% of bets and 59% of the money are on Texas A&M to cover the spread.
- 55% of bets and 63% of the money are on the over.
- 79% of bets and 67% of the money are on the Aggies to beat the Gators.
Texas A&M vs Florida Weather
