The No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (6-1, 4-0 SEC) host the No. 8 LSU Tigers (6-1, 3-0) in an SEC showdown between the only two teams that are undefeated in conference play.
In the last two weeks, LSU has toppled a top-10 Ole Miss team and then avoided a huge letdown against an Arkansas team that had already beating a top-5 opponent this season.
Texas A&M, meanwhile, rolled over a top-10 Missouri team before taking out Mississippi State following a bye week.
The Aggies enter this game as -1.5 favorites with an over/under of 54.5.
Check out our Texas A&M vs. LSU picks, predictions, odds and best bets for college football Week 9 below.
Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction and Best Bets
- Spread: LSU +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 54.5
By Dan Keegan
College football’s headlining matchup of Week 9 takes us to College Station, Texas, where the Texas A&M Aggies will welcome in the LSU Tigers in a rivalry skirmish.
The home team has won each of the past seven games in this series. The host Aggies are favored by three points, and the game total sits at 53.5.
Both teams dropped tough ball games in Week 1 against other marquee programs but have been undefeated since.
LSU dropped a shootout to USC in the opener but has gotten stronger ever since.
First-year starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier seemingly gets better each week. He's a gunslinger and one of the best quarterbacks in the country at moving around in the pocket and avoiding sacks when pressured.
The defense for LSU has also improved, dialing in a Havoc-focused system to cover up for a leaky secondary.
The Aggies lost in an absolute rock fight to Notre Dame in their big-game opener but have stacked wins ever since. Their defense has been well-rounded and excellent, with one of the best attacking front fours in the entire country.
Their level of play is determined by quarterback Conner Weigman and his inconsistent performances. If he's dialed in, the Ags look unbeatable (see: 41-10 against Missouri). If he's uneven, the floor drops out in a hurry.
Which Weigman will we see on Saturday night? Can he go toe-to-toe with Nussmeier, or will he fail to capitalize against LSU’s forgiving defense?
To get some insight into the matchup, we polled 13 of our college football experts to find some consensus plays. Let’s get into their picks.
Against the Spread
Spread Pick: LSU +1.5
By Dan Keegan
With the support of eight out of our 13 voters, our staff is fully backing the LSU Tigers to cover the spread as 3-point underdogs.
That belief is borne out of the different confidence levels in the two quarterbacks.
LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier sports an 82.7 QBR, with 18 touchdowns to six interceptions on the season. He has not posted a single-game QBR lower than 73.2; coincidentally, that was against Ole Miss, where his big-play throws delivered the comeback win.
Texas A&M'sConner Weigman is much less polished. His season-long QBR sits at 65.5 with three touchdowns to four picks. He has had one great game, one disaster and two “meh” showings.
But I can hear you — what about the Aggies’ great pass rush, you say. Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart are two of the best rushers in the country!
Garrett Nussmeier is one of the best pocket manipulators we've seen since Bryce Young. His excellent offensive line protects him well (15th overall in team Pass Block grade from PFF).
On the rare occasion Nussmeier is heated up, he has only been sacked twice, for a preposterously low 1.5% pressure-to-sack rate.
LSU’s offense ranks 10th in EPA Success Rate on quarterback dropbacks, while Texas A&M’s is 46th.
A close game like this usually comes down to which team has better quarterback play, and Nussmeier is the far better bet to deliver.
Over/Under
Over 54.5 | 8Â Picks |
Pass | 2Â Picks |
Under 54.5 | 3Â Picks |
Over/Under Pick: Over 54.5
By Cody Goggin
With over 72% of the decided vote, our staff heavily leans toward taking the over at 53.5 points in this game.
LSU has one of the most high-powered offenses in the SEC once again this season, ranking 21st in Success Rate and 24th in EPA Per Play overall.
It has recorded the 12th-most pass plays per game in FBS and has been good through the air, ranking 12th in Pass Success Rate and 10th in EPA Per Pass.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has done a great job replacing Jayden Daniels at quarterback, even despite losing both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. on the outside.
Nussmeier is establishing himself as a potential first-round NFL Draft pick this season with 2,222 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. His 0.27 EPA Per Dropback is one of the better marks in college football this year as well.
Texas A&M’s defense has been a solid unit overall this season, ranking 27th in Success Rate allowed. However, most of its success has been in the run game, which isn’t as applicable against LSU.
Allowing explosive pass plays has been one of A&M’s biggest issues, as it ranks 40th in Pass Success Rate allowed but only 76th in EPA Per Pass allowed. The Aggies also sit just 87th in PFF’s Coverage grades this season, as they haven't been strong on the back end of the defense.
Offensively, Texas A&M ranks 59th in Success Rate and 39th in EPA Per Play as a run-heavy offense that puts up the 13th-most run plays per game at 40.
On the ground, they sit 39th in EPA Per Rush behind Le’Veon Moss, who has over 660 yards and eight touchdowns on the year.
It’s easy to see why our staff likes the over when you look at the LSU defense. The Tigers were putrid last year, and it doesn’t seem like they've improved much with a rank of 106th in Success Rate allowed and 130th in EPA Per Play allowed.
They've been bad against both the run and the pass as well, coming in at 123rd in EPA Per Play allowed in both facets.
Every LSU game over the last couple of years has seemed to turn into a shootout. Its high-powered offense is often matched by its equally poor defense, resulting in the offense needing to score to stay ahead.
Texas A&M vs. LSU Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
- Texas A&M vs. LSU Spread: Texas A&M -1.5
- Texas A&M vs. LSU Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Texas A&M vs. LSU Moneyline: Texas A&M -120 · LSU +100
