Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +145 |
The Texas Bowl enters its 13th year of existence, as the Big 12 and SEC are set to lock horns in the annual tradition.
Oklahoma State will make its way to NRG Stadium after failing to win in the Big 12 Championship, while Texas A&M has a roster and coaching staff under massive transition that's looking to piece together a victory for the SEC.
These teams met in this very bowl four years ago, which ended with a ferocious comeback by the Aggies for a three-point victory. The Aggies fired head coach Jimbo Fisher at the end of the season, sending offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino off for the same position at Arkansas.
Defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson, who has been a part of the defensive staff since 2018, will serve as the interim head coach for Texas A&M. The former defensive coordinator has accepted the same title at Syracuse following the Texas Bowl.
Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy beat preseason expectations once again, leading the Cowboys to an unlikely Big 12 Championship appearance. There were plenty of peaks and valleys on the season, losing to South Alabama in Week 3 before winning the final Bedlam game against Oklahoma.
With the announcement of the Doak Walker Award winner returning for 2024, the Pokes are heavily motivated to exact revenge on an SEC team in preparation for next season.
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State went back to the drawing board in the offseason, opting to run less zone read and use man-blocking run concepts. It took several weeks to implement before the Pokes hit their stride midseason.
Ollie Gordon II underachieved in nonconference play before generating at least 100 rushing yards in nearly every conference matchup.
After running for 242 yards and four touchdowns against West Virginia in Week 8, Gordon became one of the most dominating forces in college football.
I remember watching Ollie Gordon running at Trinity Euless just completely befuddled why this guy didn't have big-time offers at the time.
Today against West Virginia:
• 29 carries
• 282 yards
• 4 TDsThat'll do. That'll do.pic.twitter.com/qkCPlKP1Iw
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) October 21, 2023
The Cowboys led a fierce rushing attack with man and counter concepts, generating a high level of explosives and finishing top-20 nationally in that area.
Oklahoma State generated its biggest plays in standard downs but struggled on third downs under quarterback Alan Bowman. The journeyman finished with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, showing consistent struggles against secondaries that used man coverage.
Although the Cowboys faced plenty of 3-3-5 personnel in Big 12 play, Bowman led the Cowboys to a below-average Success Rate and a rank of 111th in pass explosives.
Texas A&M
The number of contributors missing for Texas A&M reads longer than Moby Dick.
The most important players at the offensive skill positions and all levels of the defense have opted out for the NFL Draft or hit the transfer portal.
Freshman Jaylen Henderson will be under center after finishing the final three games as the starter. The former Fresno State signal-caller threw six touchdowns to a single interception, generating more big-time throws than turnover-worthy plays.
Henderson has dual-threat capabilities, generating 157 yards on scramble attempts and designed runs in the final three weeks of play.
6 days until Jaylen Henderson cooks the pokes pic.twitter.com/HDrmmCwNrl
— AgKnocks (@AgKnocks) December 22, 2023
With Petrino headed to Arkansas, Robinson has tapped offensive analyst Jim Chaney and co-coordinator James Coley to call the plays for Henderson.
Texas A&M high a high Success Rate when running inside zone this season while producing one of the lowest efficiency rates on outside zone rushing attempts. Those inside zone attempts are all expected on the left side of the offensive line, as starting right guard Layden Robinson and right tackle Chase Bisontis will not play in the bowl.
Meanwhile, A&M's 3-3-5 defense will be missing multiple top contributors for the Texas Bowl, losing more than 70% of team tackles and nearly 50% of pressures.
Robinson called a high frequency of blitz this season at 43% of defensive snaps, generating plenty of success in terms of pressure rate.
The Aggies also played a healthy amount of Cover 1 and Cover 3 throughout the year, logging high Success Rate numbers in stopping the pass.
Without most of his playmakers on defense, the interim head coach has stressed that his defense needs to put in the work and have fun when facing one of the best running backs in the nation.
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Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Texas A&M Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 51 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 45 | 108 | |
| Quality Drives | 10 | 44 | |
Oklahoma State Offense vs Texas A&M Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 51 |  |
| Havoc | 17 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 24 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 84 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 52 | 95 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 87 | 27 |
| Middle 8 | 1 | 56 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.8 (84) | 24.5 (18) |
| Rush Rate | 52.4% (83) | 45.5% (118) |
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M
Prediction, Pick
The Texas Bowl will be determined by the Aggies' ability to stop the Pokes' rushing attack, primarily any time Gordon touches the ball.
The Cowboys ran a heavy amount of man and counter concepts, and Texas A&M's season statistics against man blocking with all contributors playing fell far under the national average in Success Rate.
The Texas A&M defense is expected to stick with coverage packages used during the season — a low amount of man coverage with Cover 1 and Cover 3. Bowman was average against all zone coverage looks and struggled severely against the man concepts that Texas A&M isn't expected to run.
The Aggies offense has lost plenty of players at the skill positions.
Henderson's primary target in the passing game will be wideout Jahdae Walker. The junior had consistent issues in his 44 targets on the season, accounting for six of the Aggies' 21 drops on the season.
Three running backs are expected to share time with Henderson on zone read attempts after Texas A&M proved to be most successful when running inside zone. No running back in the Aggies' stable averaged more than three yards after contact or created more than 22 missed tackles.
Led by Gordon, Oklahoma State's rush concepts should cause problems for Texas A&M. If the Aggies are unable to move the Pokes into passing downs, there could be a bonanza of scoring opportunities for Oklahoma State.
Conversely, the Cowboys were one of the best teams at defending outside zone in the nation. The hope for the Aggies may rest solely on Henderson's legs on inside zone keeper attempts.
Pick: Oklahoma State -125 ML or Better
