The No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies (8-3, 5-2 SEC) host the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (10-1, 6-1) in a Lone Star Showdown with major SEC Championship — and potentially College Football Playoff — implications.
Texas A&M suffered a 43-41 overtime loss to Auburn last week, essentially ripping away its at-large CFP chances. With 2 other losses to South Carolina and Notre Dame, the Aggies need this game to keep their dream alive.
Texas, meanwhile, has only 1 loss on the season, a 30-15 defeat at home to Georgia, which has already secured a spot in the SEC Championship.
The winner here will advance to the SEC title game in Atlanta.
Texas enters as a -5.5 favorite with the over/under set at 48.5.
With so much at stake in this in-state rivalry game, let's dive into our Texas A&M vs. Texas picks and college football predictions for Week 14 on Saturday, Nov. 30.
Texas A&M vs. Texas Picks, Predictions
The return of the Texas A&M vs. Texas rivalry is juicier than your favorite telenovela.
The Aggies’ only hopes of reaching their first-ever College Football Playoff hinge on an SEC Championship, which can only be had with a win over the Longhorns.
Texas’ CFP aspirations may be able to afford a loss here, but putting your fate in the hands of the playoff committee is always a dangerous notion.
Once one of college football’s most heated rivalries, these teams haven’t met since 2011 when the Longhorns beat the Aggies, 27-25.
Texas A&M arrives at this matchup after suffering a four-overtime defeat at the hands of Auburn.
Mike Elko’s group is 1-2 since making the permanent switch to Marcel Reed as the starting quarterback, but the mobile quarterback’s legs will be a welcome feature against one of the best pass rushes in the country.
Texas, winners of four straight, hasn’t played a team currently ranked inside the Top 25 since mid-October when it lost to Georgia by double digits.
The Aggies have a similarly effective front seven, and Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers really struggles under duress, so while Texas is favored, there’s a clear path to victory for Texas A&M.
It’s far from unanimous, but our staff thinks Texas A&M keeps it close in a relatively low-scoring game.
Spread
Our Texas A&M vs. Texas Spread Pick: Texas A&M +5.5
Our staff is split evenly on this one, with our Action PRO Model making the spread Texas -4.7.
On one hand, the Longhorns look like a significantly better team on paper. They rank sixth nationally in Net EPA per Play margin, boasting the nation’s second-best defense by that metric. There’s no shortage of talent on the squad.
On the other hand, Texas A&M’s offense is inconsistent and tricky to figure out. Marcel Reed was near-perfect running the RPO in a true road game against Auburn last week, but he looked lost in a 24-point loss to South Carolina a few weeks earlier.
That said, the Aggies might be the best defense that the Longhorns have faced so far.
Texas has played nobody. Five of its six SEC wins have come against teams with losing records.
When the ‘Horns have “stepped up” in competition, they haven’t looked all that good.
On the road, they were shoved into a locker against Georgia, posted a 41% Success Rate against Arkansas and managed an underwhelming 5.6 yards per play against Vanderbilt.
I’m having trouble imagining Quinn Ewers and Co. showing up in a rowdy College Station road environment — Kyle Field will be in a frenzy for this de-facto College Football Playoff play-in game.
Oh, yeah. The motivational angle screams "Aggies." Texas likely still makes the field of 12, even with a loss here. But Saturday is a must-win for Mike Elko’s squad.
However, the deciding spread factor might be the ever-undervalued third phase. Texas A&M will have a significant special teams advantage, ranking eighth in SP+’s ratings and second in average Net Field Position.
Over/Under
Over 48.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 48.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Texas A&M vs. Texas Over/Under Pick: Under 48.5
Our staff thinks the under is the play. Our Action Network PRO Model projects the number closer to 47 than 49, and we’ve tracked sharp action hitting that side.
I think that’s fair.
Texas boasts an elite defense, but A&M is no slouch either.
The Aggies' defensive line has been mucking it up throughout the year, ranking among the top 10 teams nationally in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns can get after the quarterback, ranking fourth nationally in PFF’s Pass Rush grades. I wouldn’t be surprised if these two defensive lines dictate the game, which would keep the scoring down.
I’d also like to refer back to my paragraph in the prior section: Texas has played nobody.
A&M is likely the best defense the ‘Horns have played, and the offense has flailed in true road environments. Why should we trust them to score here?
But defense usually travels, and Texas’ top-five defense should keep the game tight for 60 minutes, especially by avoiding downfield throws (the Horns rank top-10 nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed) and tightening up with its back against the wall (it ranks top-five nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives).
Also, I think the Aggies' best shot in this game is to leverage Reed in the option game. The ‘Horns are much better against the pass (second nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed) than the rush (55th in Rush Success Rate allowed).
Reed and Co. can move the ball methodically, which could result in points but will definitely limit possessions, shorten the game, and favor the under.
More Ways to Bet Texas A&M vs. Texas
Texas A&M 1H +3.5 (Play to +3)
You won’t find a louder atmosphere in all of college football than Kyle Field on Saturday night. I expect the home Aggies to take full advantage of that and get off to a good start in this game.
The Texas A&M defensive line is elite and should have its way early with a Texas offensive line that has struggled to protect Quinn Ewers at points this season.
When Ewers does face pressure, he becomes a completely different quarterback. Just look at the Georgia tape.
Ewers is extremely sackable and often panics and becomes careless with the football when he has defenders bearing down on him.
It would not surprise me at all if TAMU forces a turnover or two early and gives its offense a short field to put points on the board.
Additionally, I think you’ll see A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein have a very strong scripted portion of his game plan, which will give Marcel Reed and the Aggies offense a chance to find success early in this game.
Texas will fight back, and this will be a four-quarter battle. But I love the value on the home team catching over a field goal in the first half.
Texas A&M vs. Texas Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- Texas A&M vs. Texas Spread: Texas A&M +5.5 · Texas -5.5
- Texas A&M vs. Texas Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Texas A&M vs. Texas Moneyline: Texas A&M ML +164 · Texas ML -200
