The Texas A&M Aggies (8-4, 5-3 SEC) and USC Trojans (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten) play the Las Vegas Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Established as a bowl in 1992, the Las Vegas Bowl has moved up in the pecking order of college football postseason games. Previously associated with conferences ranging from the Big West and the MAC to the WAC and Mountain West, Sin City is now host to a Big Ten-SEC showdown.
USC will make its 3rd-ever appearance in the bowl, playing its 2nd game this season in Allegiant Stadium after a 27-20 Week 1 win over LSU. The Trojans struggled on the road in their 1st campaign as a Big Ten team, but now send a former UNLV quarterback to play in his old home stadium.
Texas A&M will play in the Vegas Bowl for the 1st time in program history. The SEC has not had any luck in this bowl, losing 2 previous appearances in 2000 and 2022.
The Aggies made a push for the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff but lost 3 of their final 4 SEC games. While NIL funds contributed to one of the best defensive lines in the nation, the Vegas Bowl will be a head start on the 2025 season for a freshman quarterback.
Texas A&M opened as a 2.5-point favorite, quickly moving to the current -3.5 in the market. The over/under sits at 52.
Let's dive into my Texas A&M vs. USC predictions and college football picks for the Las Vegas Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27.
Texas A&M Aggies vs USC Trojans Prediction, Best Bets
- Texas A&M vs. USC Pick: USC +3.5
My USC vs. Texas A&M best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas A&M vs USC Odds, Spread, Lines
| Texas A&M Aggies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| USC Trojans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
- Texas A&M vs USC Spread: Texas A&M -3.5 · USC +3.5
- Texas A&M vs USC Over/Under: 55.5
- Texas A&M vs USC Moneyline: Texas A&M ML -185 · USC ML +150
Texas A&M vs USC Las Vegas Bowl Betting Preview
The Texas A&M offense presented a challenge for new coordinator Collin Klein. Formerly known as "Optimus" Klein from his quarterback days with Kansas State — which led to a Heisman showdown with Johnny Manziel — the 35-year-old had just left Manhattan after an extensive career on the K-State coaching staff.
Klein would bring the run concepts of the Chris Klieman offense to College Station, looking to implement several ways of using multiple running back and tight end schemes to move the chains on the ground.
Conner Weigman won the starting quarterback position for the Aggies through fall camp, known more for pocket passing than mobility.
Due to injury, freshman Marcel Reed was thrust into the starting position where the Texas A&M offense started to thrive under the comfort of Klein's vision.
It was always Marcel Reed pic.twitter.com/cRwBk3ATUG
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 27, 2024
While Reed began a metamorphosis of the offense, the Texas A&M defense was led by one of the nastiest Havoc-minded trenches in the nation.
Edges Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart have been joined on the bowl opt-out list by interior Shemar Turner, leaving the Aggies shorthanded in both run defense and created pressures for the Las Vegas Bowl.
New head coach Mike Elko has run his nickel package in College Station successfully as a coordinator in the Jimbo Fisher era but now must rely on a secondary that finished 75th in coverage grading, per PFF.
USC Trojans Betting Preview
Similar to Texas A&M, USC will enter the Las Vegas Bowl with a quarterback who didn't win starting duties through fall camp.
UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava took over as starter in Week 12 against Nebraska, generating seven touchdowns to three interceptions while increasing his big-time throw rate and decreasing his turnover-worthy rate from his 2023 season with the Rebels.
The mobility has also improved, with four rushing touchdowns in 17 attempts that eclipsed his UNLV total of three.
Weapons have been thinned out of the USC passing game thanks to the transfer portal. Kyron Hudson is on to Penn State, and Duce Robinson will be with Florida State next season. Zachariah Branch is also on the move with a target destination in the SEC.
However, the cupboard isn't bare for head coach Lincoln Riley thanks to the remaining pieces of Ja'Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon.
Lane took in 36 targets at the wideout position with modest success, but Lemon will serve as the powder keg out of the slot with an average of 3.1 yards per route run on 46 catches this season.
The defensive numbers improved for a Trojans defense that was near dead last under Alex Grinch. Coordinator D'Anton Lynn transitioned USC from a bottom-10 tackling defense to 14th, per PFF.
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold led the team in tackles from the linebacker position, lifting numbers in Havoc, Line Yards and Finishing Drives to mid-FBS levels.
The Trojans have a new identity when opposing offenses get off schedule, ranking 24th in passing downs Success Rate and 15th in third-down defense.
USC vs Texas A&M Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Texas A&M Offense vs. USC Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 35 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 83 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 58 | |
USC Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 10 |  |
| Pass Success | 25 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 49 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 109 | 14 |
| PFF Coverage | 75 | 49 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 10 | 56 |
| Middle 8 | 56 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.0 (94) | 26.5 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (19) | 40% (127) |
Texas A&M vs USC Picks, Best Bets
The loss of the elite edge and interior positions on the Texas A&M defensive line has leveled the playing field in this game.
Maiava will look to find success against a Texas A&M defense that fell to 43rd in opponent Pass EPA despite a high number of contested catches.
Slot corner BJ Mayes will be under the microscope against Lemon, allowing over 10 yards per catch on 16 catches in 27 opponent targets.
Action Network projects this game at Texas A&M -4, but with losses on the defensive line, the Havoc numbers will take a dip.
USC does have receiving options available despite the losses to the transfer portal, making 3 a crucial number in the betting market.
Look for Reed to have success passing against a USC secondary that struggled to find success in Cover 1 and Cover 3, while the explosives of the Trojans' passing attack create multiple scoring opportunities.
The Aggies are a buy under a field goal, while any value above +3 is a buy on USC.
Pick: USC +3.5 or Better
Texas A&M vs USC Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Location, Start Time
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Friday, Dec. 27 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Texas A&M takes on USC in the Las Vegas Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27 at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas A&M vs USC Betting Trends to Know
Texas A&M vs USC Weather Forecast
