The Texas Longhorns (12-2, 7-1 SEC) meet the Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2, 7-2 Big 12) in the Peach Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Peach Bowl will serve as the opening game on New Year's Day and the second quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff. The winner of this game will earn a trip to the Cotton Bowl in the national semifinal against the winner of Ohio State and Oregon.
The Longhorns earned their spot with a 38-24 opening win over Clemson at Darrell K Royal Stadium, flashing a handful of methodical and explosive drives.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian struggled to get the red zone offense on track through the second half of the season but showed no weaknesses against a Tigers defense that failed to control the line of scrimmage.
Now, the Longhorns return to Atlanta with an offensive line that was ravaged in the second half of the game.
Arizona State won the Big 12 and earned a bye to the quarterfinals after beating Iowa State, 45-19, in the conference championship.
The offense is relies heavily on a rushing attack that averaged more than eight yards per play against the Cyclones in Arlington — a factor that must be replicated for success in Mercedes Benz-Stadium.
Texas opened the market as a 13-point favorite, but midweek wagering and larger bet limits saw a flood of Arizona State money drop the number to as low as Arizona State +11 as of writing. The over/under sits at 51.
Let's dive into my Texas vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks for the Peach Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
Texas vs Arizona State Prediction & Best Pick For CFP Peach Bowl
- Texas vs. Arizona State Pick: Arizona State +12.5
My Arizona State vs. Texas best bet is on the Sun Devils to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas vs Arizona State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -105 | 52 -110 / -110 | -525 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -115 | 52 -110 / -110 | +390 |
- Texas vs Arizona State Spread: Texas -13 (-105) · Arizona State +13 (-115)
- Texas vs Arizona State Over/Under: 52 Points
- Texas vs Arizona State Moneyline: Texas -525 · Arizona State +390
Texas vs Arizona State ATS Prediction
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Ground Game Will Be Key
Health will be a major headline for the Longhorns entering the Peach Bowl, but good news has come on the offensive line. Right tackle Cameron Williams had a precautionary MRI after an injury in the Clemson game but returned for light drills in practice this week.
Center Jake Majors was a full participant in practice, as backups Hayden Conner and Cole Hutson had above-replacement grades. Left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. returned to full strength for 75 blocks against the Tigers, grading out highly in both run blocking and pass protection.
As for the weapon around quarterback Quinn Ewers, wideout Isaiah Bond was a full participant in practice after missing the Clemson game.
Bond brings with him over 500 receiving yards and an explosive 1.9 yards per route run.
Here's the play I assume Isaiah Bond reinjured his ankle on pic.twitter.com/EOvjzuZ1gH
— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) December 8, 2024
The Texas offense will be powered by the rushing attack of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner with a mixture of outside zone and power run concepts.
The Longhorns finished 17th in Rushing Success Rate, keeping passing downs to a minimum.
The bigger advantage may be with a healthy offensive line protecting Ewers, as Arizona State finished 132nd in pass rush.
The explosive play may be the best option for head coach Steve Sarkisian to get points on the board considering recent struggles in scoring position.
The Texas defense has a large task on deck when it comes to stopping one of the most efficient running backs in football.
The Longhorns have logged an average Success Rate against outside zone, counter and man-blocking schemes that Arizona State utilizes.
Although there's a large discrepancy in strength of schedule between the Longhorns and Sun Devils, there's a near-even ranking in Stuff Rate and Line Yards between the two teams.
The biggest issue on paper is the run defense of defensive ends Barryn Sorrell and Trey Moore, who both hold the highest missed tackle rates of any defensive player with at least 130 snaps.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Leaning on Skattebo
Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson was a crucial loss before the Big 12 Championship that was thought to make Arizona State a one-dimensional offense.
That dimension revolved around running back Cam Skattebo, who ran for over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season.
Arizona State runs a heavy amount of outside zone, running the Iowa State defense up a flag pole for more than eight yards per play.
Cam Skattebo is ridiculous
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 7, 2024
Iowa State missed 20 tackles against the Arizona State offense, but the unexpected offense from the passing attack was welcome by the Sun Devils.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt ended the season with 24 touchdowns to just five interceptions, leaving an excellent ratio of 11 big-time throws to just four turnover-worthy plays.
The redshirt freshman ended the season with a cool 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate in 120 dropbacks with pressure.
Leavitt contributed to the Big 12 Championship with three touchdowns and just a single turnover play. That's especially impressive considering the best receiving option for the team didn't play due to injury.
Texas vs Arizona State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Arizona State match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 84 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 52 | |
Arizona State Offense vs. Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 10 | 1 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 1 | 45 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 115 | 131 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.7 (13) | 26.6 (58) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (84) | 61% (11) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Texas vs Arizona State Prediction
There's no doubt Ewers should have plenty of yardage in this quarterfinal, as Arizona State runs a heavy amount of Cover 3 and Cover 1. Ewers has struggled against other coverages but has dominated ASU's preferences at a high efficiency and EPA clip.
The Texas quarterback has a 56% Success Rate and a 21% big-play rate against Cover 1 and Cover 3, signaling that the return of Bond should create plenty of available yards.
Ewers could be in line for a yardage prop, particularly with the Sun Devils' poor rank in pass rush and Havoc.
Although plenty of yards are in the forecast, it hasn't always translated to points for the Texas offense. Sarkisian has elected to create methodical drives that burn the clock in recent games, particularly against both Arkansas and Kentucky. Only a late goal-line stop allowed early Texas investors to cash against Clemson.
Consider the recent Offensive Finishing Drives (points per possession extending beyond the 40-yard line) totals for Texas:
- 3.4 points per attempt vs. Clemson
- 2.0 points per attempt vs. Georgia
- 2.1 points per attempt vs. Texas A&M
The bigger issue is the missed tackles from the edge positions and Clemson's aim to expose Longhorn defenders covering the inside. Clemson used slot Antonio Williams and tight end Jake Briningstool to aim between the hashes, finding great success in moving the Tigers offense into scoring position.
Left cornerback Malik Muhammad was targeted eight times for six catches and a whopping 120 yards. Slot corner Jaylon Guilbeau was targeted seven times for five catches with 32 yards after the catch and a Clemson touchdown.
Weakside linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. was picked on by Cade Klubnik all game, as he gave up two touchdowns and explosives from Briningstool and running back Jarvis Green.
Leavitt did similar damage against Iowa State, using slot Melquan Stovall for a 63-yard explosive play.
Skattebo averages 3.2 targets per game and 13.7 yards per catch, falling on the end of a receiving touchdown to win a conference championship.
Leavitt's ability to attack the middle of the defense while Skattebo generates missed tackles at a double-digit rate will be enough to keep Arizona State within the number.
Pick: Arizona State +12.5 or Better · Ewers Passing Yards Over · Stovall Receiving Yards Over · Skattebo Receiving Yards Over
Texas vs Arizona State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, Jan. 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Texas and Arizona State will meet in the Peach Bowl in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
