We head to Fayetteville as the third-ranked Texas Longhorns (8-1, 4-1 SEC) visit the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4, 3-3) in an SEC battle.
The Longhorns are coming off a throttling at home when they beat Florida by the score of 49-17. Quinn Ewers had his usual elite showing, throwing for 333 yards, five touchdowns, and a 70% completion rate.
Arkansas has been its usual inconsistent self, trading a win for a loss practically every week. Most recently, the Razorbacks fell to the hands of Ole Miss at home, 63-31 and lost Taylen Green in the first half after an efficient day under center. However, it looks like Green returns this week. Malachi Singleton is a solid option if not, as he carried his weight in relief.
Texas is a 13-point favorite on the spread with a 57.5-point over/under.
Where does the betting value lie? Read further for my Texas vs. Arkansas predictions and college football picks.
Texas Longhorns vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction
- Texas vs. Arkansas Pick: Over 57.5
My Arkansas vs. Texas best bet is on the Over 57.5, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas vs Arkansas Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | +460 |
- Texas vs Arkansas Spread: Texas -13 · Arkansas +13
- Texas vs Arkansas Over/Under: 58 Total Points
- Texas vs Arkansas Moneyline: Texas ML -650 · Arkansas ML +460
Texas vs Arkansas NCAAF Week 12 Preview
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
Ewers has been a stud all season and a favorite for the Heisman Trophy. He’s helped Texas grow an elite passing attack, ranking 13th in Passing Down Success Rate and 11th in Passing Success Rate.
To top it all off, he’s completing passes at a 69% rate with a dynamic set of options in Gunnar Helm, Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden and Ryan Wingo.
Golden, last week, hauled in two scores while also registering 21 yards per catch.
The run game has been fine, but it’s not this offense's calling card. The Longhorns rank 63rd in Rush Success Rate, 73rd in Rush Explosiveness and 85th in Rush PPA.
Despite those numbers, their backs are often reliable. Texas brings out a three-man committee of Jaydon Blue, Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson, who all average five yards per carry and combine for 11 rushing touchdowns.
Texas has had a rough defensive stretch. It has one of the best secondaries in the country with Andrew Mukuba and Jahdae Barron, but the Longhorns have allowed 23.7 points per game in their past three.
They get a pass for the Georgia game, but letting up 24 against Vanderbilt and 17 against the depleted Gators, you wonder if there are cracks in the armor.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
I was extremely encouraged by what I’ve seen of Green as the Razorback general. But then, the inconsistencies started to rear their ugly heads.
Green can one day complete his passes at a 70% rate or better; the next week, he’s lucky if he can get to 60.
He does have competent receivers, and Andrew Armstrong has been a huge part of this offense. He’s hauled in the 11th most receiving yards in the country with 857 and averaging 15 yards per catch.
Arkansas excels in the ground game, where Green is second on the team in rushing yards. Ja’Quinden Jackson, though, is the head honcho in the backfield, rushing for 5.7 yards per carry and is tied for 12th in the FBS with 10 rushing touchdowns.
Additionally, Arkansas’ run game ranks in the top 10 nationally in Success Rate and PPA and is 16th in explosiveness.
It’ll be interesting to see how this defense fares against Texas’ run game. The Razorbacks stuff the run at a high rate, ranking 14th in Success Rate allowed, seventh in PPA allowed, and 16th in explosiveness allowed.
Because of that, I would expect Texas to throw the ball as often as possible. Arkansas’ secondary has some weaknesses, and with Ewers’ efficiency, there’s a lot of reason to exploit them.
Arkansas vs Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and Texas match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 19 |  |
| Line Yards | 71 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 24 | 70 | |
Arkansas Offense vs. Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 7 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 5 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 58 |
| PFF Coverage | 1 | 129 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 116 | 44 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 95 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (34) | 26.4 (47) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (93) | 53% (75) |
Texas vs Arkansas Picks, Best Bets
This is a prime opportunity for a high-scoring game.
When SEC play began, Arkansas did a solid job limiting opposing teams to low-scoring duels. Against Auburn, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and, to a much lesser extent, LSU, it became a chess match.
However, the score has driven up against both Mississippi schools in the past two weeks. The Razorbacks ran over the Bulldogs in Starkville, dropping 58 on them, and then Ole Miss tagged on 63 last week on their home turf.
Ole Miss has one of the more deadly passing attacks in college football, but guess who’s better? Texas.
I expect Ewers to expose Arkansas’ secondary in a big way since the Razorbacks can't stop aerial attacks.
Pick: Over 57.5
Texas vs Arkansas Channel, How to Watch, Location, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AK |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Texas vs. Arkansas will be played at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ABC.
Texas vs Arkansas Betting Trends to Know
Texas vs Arkansas Weather Forecast
