The No. 5 Texas Longhorns (11-2, 7-1 SEC) host the No. 12 Clemson Tigers (10-3, 7-1 ACC) in a first-round College Football Playoff game on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Texas is coming off a 22-19 overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship. That game marked the Longhorns' second loss to Georgia this season — their only two losses of the year — after also suffering a 30-15 loss to the Bulldogs on Sept. 15.
Clemson, meanwhile, most recently toppled SMU in the ACC Championship, 34-31, to steal a bid to the 12-team playoff.
Texas enters this game as a -12.5 favorite with the over/under at 50.5.
Let's dive into our Texas vs. Clemson picks and college football predictions for this College Football Playoff showdown on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Texas vs. Clemson Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
Just like March Madness, the bid-stealing era of the College Football Playoff has arrived.
Now, the blue bloods of the sport aren't typically a Cinderella story. After all, it doesn't sound surprising that the 2016 and 2018 national champions would make a 12-team playoff. But that's exactly where Clemson finds itself.
The Tigers needed to beat one-loss SMU in the ACC Championship to make the field, and that's exactly what the Tigers did when freshman kicker Nolan Hauser nailed a 56-yard field goal as time expired.
Now, like a true Cinderella, they're looking to make a run.
That might be easier said than done with a trip to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on deck.
Texas has looked dominant at times when the offense is firing on all cylinders. However, that hasn't always been the case.
The Longhorns have suffered two losses to the Georgia Bulldogs this season and were taken to the wire against Vanderbilt and, to a lesser extent, Texas A&M.
Oddsmakers seem to be expecting the dominant Longhorns to show up, as Texas enters this one as a double-digit favorite with the second-shortest odds to win the national title.
We polled nine members of our college football staff to get their take on this CFP spread and over/under, so let's take a look at our picks.
Spread
Our Spread Pick: Texas -12.5
By John Feltman
Our staff is surprisingly torn on the spread in the matchup, but I'm here to be a more decisive voice. Texas will not only win this game, but it will absolutely dominate.
For my money, this Texas defense is the best unit in the country. I know it looked vulnerable against Georgia in its two matchups, but the metrics show how real this unit is.
Texas ranks in the 99th percentile in these key defensive metrics:
- Havoc
- Passing Success Rate allowed
- Pass Explosiveness allowed
- Rush Explosiveness allowed
- Explosiveness allowed
That's extremely impressive.
Plus, it doesn’t help that Clemson starting running back Phil Mafah is banged up. I don’t see how the Tigers find enough consistent offense to cover the number.
Additionally, who has Clemson played? It got embarrassed by Georgia at a neutral site, lost to Louisville at home and lost to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.
The schedule is not impressive, and it nearly blew a massive lead to SMU in the ACC Championship. The Tigers are in for a rude awakening against the Longhorns.
The Texas offense has been struggling, and a lack of a consistent running game has hurt it. I believe backup quarterback Arch Manning gives the Longhorns a much better chance to win it all, but Quinn Ewers should do enough against the Tigers defense to lead his team to a comfortable win in Austin.
Speaking of which, Clemson really struggles to prevent explosives through the air, which won't help its offense in the game. Expect an all-out effort from the Horns in a comfortable win.
Over/Under
Over 50.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 50.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 50.5
By John Feltman
Our staff believes this game is going to go under. I agree, as there are a lot of places where the Longhorns could struggle to move the football.
I noted that Clemson gives up a lot of past explosives through the air, but we've seen at times that the Texas offense can be inconsistent.
It's peculiar that Arch Manning hasn't been used in many packages in Steve Sarkisian's offense. If the head coach is saving him for later games, we probably won't see much of the heralded backup here.
There's a possibility that the Tigers can add to the score with some garbage time touchdowns late in the game, but Texas' defense will dominate, which is the most significant matchup for the under.
Texas' run game is still a significant question mark. The Longhorns have yet to establish a consistent rushing attack. That could lead to a very one-dimensional approach against the Tigers, which is a lot easier to defend.
The problem is, all it'll take for the Horns to put up a few scores are some explosives through the air.
The most significant aspect of this game going under is undoubtedly my lack of faith in the Clemson offense against this terrific Texas defense.
This will be the best defense it's faced all year, and the closest comparison to that was a Georgia defense it faced all the way back in Week 1. We all saw how that matchup turned out.
I agree with the staff here; this game goes under the total.
Player Props
Bryant Wesco Jr. Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-122 · Play to 49.5)
By Doug Ziefel
This is more of a volume play, as Clemson is projected to be trailing in this matchup. A trailing game script means even more passing volume from an offense that already throws the ball at the 29th-highest rate in the country.
Passing volume is key here, as Texas ranks first in the country in yards per pass allowed. But given Bryant Wesco's recent uptick in production, we should see him get enough work to exceed his yardage total.
Wesco ranks third on the team in targets and has led the Tigers in targets in each of their last two games.
It's clear that he's developed a rapport with quarterback Cade Klubnik late in the season, and it has generated some big plays with Wesco averaging 20.2 yards per reception.
This total has started to tick upward in some spots, but it's still very playable. Wesco can exceed this number with just a handful of receptions.
However, it's likely he gets plenty of work here, as the Tigers will be throwing in an effort to stay in the game.
Texas vs. Clemson Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
- Texas vs. Clemson Spread: Texas -12.5 · Clemson +12.5
- Texas vs. Clemson Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Texas vs. Clemson Moneyline: Texas -300 · Clemson +375
