Texas vs. Georgia Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
By Pete Ruden
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama. No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon. And now, No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas.
This battle between SEC behemoths marks the third top-five game we've had in the last four weeks, and it should be one of the best of the entire college football season.
The Georgia Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1) will march into Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday looking to welcome the top-ranked Texas Longhorns (6-0, 2-0) to the SEC by giving them their first loss in their new conference.
However, that will be easier said than done. The Longhorns have been one of college football's best teams for the past couple of years and haven't exhibited a true weakness yet this season.
The problem is the Longhorns have yet to face a complete opponent. While games against Michigan and Oklahoma were expected to be headliners, both teams have essentially abandoned the passing game, making the Texas defense something of a mystery.
If there's anyone who can exploit the Longhorns' potential weaknesses and end their dream start to SEC play, it's Kirby Smart's Bulldogs.
Georgia has been the class of college football since capturing back-to-back national titles in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. But after missing out on the College Football Playoff last season and dropping their game to Alabama a few weeks ago, you can bet the Dawgs will be licking their chops to face the team that took their longtime No. 1 ranking.
Texas enters this game as a -4.5 favorite with an over/under of 56.5.
We polled 14 members of our college football staff to see how they're betting the spread and total for this top-five showdown. And as a bonus, we threw in a double-result long shot if you're looking to get spicy.
Let's get to our Texas vs. Georgia picks and predictions for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Texas vs. Georgia Spread
Georgia +4.5
By Cody Goggin
Our staff is leaning toward taking the Georgia Bulldogs as +4.5 point underdogs in this matchup. It’s hard not to pick Georgia as an underdog in any matchup, considering it hasn’t been an underdog since the 2021 season opener against Clemson.
The Bulldogs sit at 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in an instant classic against Alabama in which they rallied back from an early 28-0 deficit.
Georgia’s offense ranks 46th in Success Rate and 14th in Finishing Drives this season, showing how efficient it can be.
However, the main reason to back this Bulldogs team is because of its defense.
Their strength is in their pass defense, which ranks 14th in Pass Success Rate allowed, seventh in Pass PPA allowed, and fourth in Pass Explosiveness allowed. This is the best team in the country in Explosiveness allowed overall, and it ranks 9th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
This is notable, as Texas’ passing game has carried it this season while the run game has left much to be desired.
The Longhorns rank 11th in Pass Success Rate and fifth in Pass PPA but just 63rd in Rush Success Rate and 85th in Rush PPA. If Georgia can shut down Quinn Ewers and the Texas aerial attack, then it stands a good chance of winning this game.
Texas’ defense, meanwhile, has been good but not great, ranking 39th in Success Rate allowed this season.
The Horns sit 49th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 33rd in Rush Success Rate allowed, so Georgia quarterback Carson Beck will have the opportunity to post some strong numbers against this secondary.
This should be an even matchup between two of the best teams in the country, so getting Georgia as an underdog is something that won't happen again for a long time.
Texas vs. Georgia Over/Under
Over 56.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 56.5 | 8 Picks |
Under 56.5
From a pure eye-test perspective, it’s hard to argue that two of the best defenses in the entire country will take the field in Austin on Saturday night.
Yes, Georgia's defensive numbers are a little down due to the early fireworks from Alabama in that matchup — but this unit is loaded with talent.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns defense has been stifling opposing offenses all year.
Texas has held four teams to seven points or less, including Oklahoma last week. It hasn't given up more than 13 points all season.
Because of the fact that both teams will be trotting out high-level defensive units, we believe there's value on the under here with the total currently sitting at 56.5.
Both offenses will have to work for every point they score, particularly in the red zone. We don’t anticipate anything easy coming for either side, which will likely result in some longer, more methodical drives.
That’s music to an under bettor’s ears, especially with a total sitting as high as it is 56.
Avoiding any defensive or special teams touchdowns will also be important in a chaotic high-profile matchup like this, but that’s something we’re willing to roll the dice on with two quarterbacks who have command of their offenses and generally take care of the ball.
Sit back and enjoy a fascinating matchup Saturday night in Texas — one that we believe will ultimately fall short of the total.
More Ways to Bet Texas vs. Georgia
Texas-Georgia Halftime/Full Time (+1300)
Play to +1000
By Alex Hinton
Our team likes Georgia to cover in this showdown. However, getting there might be a sweat.
Whether it’s regular-season boredom for a program with two national titles in the last three years or another reason, Georgia has started slow this season.
It's averaging just 11.4 points per game in the first half, which ranks 89th in the country. That number also comes with Georgia scoring 27 points in the first half against Mississippi State last week.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are tied for sixth in the country with 19.2 second-half points per game. That includes 28 second-half points against Clemson and 27 against Alabama.
Against the Crimson Tide, Georgia fell behind, 28-0, before rallying to take a 34-33 lead and ultimately falling, 41-34.
On the other side, Texas has dominated its opponents this season, particularly in the first half.
The Longhorns have outscored opponents, 146-22, in the first two quarters. As Steve Sarkisian has rebuilt Texas into a powerhouse, it has gotten better in close games — but it's not immune to blowing a lead every now and then.
Additionally, we still don't know just how good this revamped Texas secondary is given that its two marquee wins — Michigan and Oklahoma — both have issues at quarterback.
Georgia will be just fine with Carson Beck leading a comeback. The Bulldogs signal-caller has thrown for over 400 yards in two of his last three games, including in the near comeback against Alabama.
Ideally, Georgia doesn't spot Texas 28 points as it did Alabama. It would be much more ideal to sit within a possession going into halftime.
If so, it will be live to come back and upset the Longhorns. After all, Alabama is the only team that has beaten Georgia in the last three years.
For a fun bet (0.25 units or less), it’s worth backing Georgia to rally in what should be a tight game between two of the nation’s best teams. For comparison, building this out as a same-game parlay at FanDuel yields just +746 odds.
