The Texas Longhorns and Michigan Wolverines were one game away from playing each other in the National Championship a season ago. The game will be held at Michigan's home stadium, famously known as 'The Big House,' which is renowned for its impressive home win streak and historical significance.
Texas is currently a consensus 6.5-point favorite (-6.5) over Michigan, although there are some Michigan +7s in the market. The total is over/under 41.5 points, and the Wolverines are +225 underdogs on the moneyline.
Before I dive deep into my preview for College Football Week 2's marquee Top 10 matchup, let's start with my Michigan vs. Texas picks and my college football predictions for this incredible 12 p.m. ET kickoff.
Michigan vs Texas Pick, Prediction
College Football Week 2 Pick: Michigan to Cover the Spread (+7 or Better)
My Texas vs. Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread as underdogs, with the best college football Week 2 betting odds line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
The Longhorns ended their final season in the Big 12 with a conference championship, vaulting the program into its first-ever College Football Playoff. Texas would go on to lose to Washington in the Sugar Bowl, ending any chances of bringing a national title back to Austin.
Michigan had better luck, surviving Alabama in the Rose Bowl before steamrolling Washington to win the National Championship.
But these have become very different teams since last January. Former head coach Jim Harbaugh has moved on to the NFL, allowing the Wolverines to promote offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to head coach.
Plenty of questions surround the Wolverines offense, which gave consumers a glimpse in their opening weekend victory over Fresno State.
Texas' coaching staff remains in place, but the loss of Havoc creators on the defensive line was the hot spot to watch entering 2024. The Longhorns had no issues disposing of Colorado State in the season opener, setting up a titanic matchup in Week 2.
While a loss here doesn't end the playoff chances for either team, the winner will vault into the national title picture.
Michigan vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +228 |
- Michigan vs Texas Spread: Texas -7 | Michigan +7
- Michigan vs Texas Total: Over/Under 41.5
- Michigan vs Texas Moneyline: Texas -285 | Michigan +225
Michigan Football vs. Texas Football Preview
Texas Longhorns Football Preview: Can Texas Keep Rolling?
Texas made quick work of Colorado State in the season opener. The Longhorns more than doubled the Rams' overall yards per play, generating at least 10 yards per play on four of their 12 offensive possessions.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw for 260 yards and a trio of touchdowns, while running back Jerrick Gibson was the standout player in the backfield with an average of 6.7 yards per carry spread out over 10 rushing attempts.
There was no resistance in a passing game that saw touchdown catches by Isaiah Bond, Silas Bolden and Matthew Golden.
Quinn Ewers subtly manipulating zone defenders with his eyes/feet pic.twitter.com/SSDhMVzvsN
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) September 2, 2024
The biggest question heading into the season centered around a defense that lost two stellar interior linemen.
Starting defensive tackle Vernon Broughton generated two of the Longhorns' seven pressures over 57 snaps. Colorado State entered the season with an offensive line that was projected to finish in the bottom half of the Mountain West but kept the Longhorns from recording a single sack on the day.
The Rams also finished with a 53% Success Rate in running plays, which is above the national average. However, Texas still stuffed 12-of-32 rushing attempts to eclipse the national average of 30%.
One of the most surprising elements from the Colorado State box score comes from the secondary.
Texas struggled to get stops when opponents targeted the defensive backfield, but Colorado State struggled to convert when it mattered. The Rams went 5-of-16 on third- and fourth-down attempts, posting a subpar 26% Success Rate and 3.7 yards per play in passing downs.
Cornerbacks Malik Muhammad and Gavin Holmes each recorded a pass breakup, while Wardell Mack and Jahdae Barron posted interceptions.
Michigan Wolverines Football Preview: More of the Same for Michigan Defense
Michigan unleashed a new-look offense against Fresno State, signaling the start of the Sherrone Moore era.
Although the former offensive coordinator filled the role as an interim head coach for a few games last season, this offense won't have JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum to fall back on.
Quarterback Davis Warren received the lion's share of passing attempts, going 15-of-25 for 118 yards.
Tight end Colston Loveland was on the receiving end of more than half of the completions, catching eight of his nine targets for 87 yards and a score on the day.
Running back Kalel Mullings busted out for 6.1 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts, generating a high 4.3 yards after contact.
Kalel Mullings wasn't messing around with this spin move. 🌀 #B1GFootballpic.twitter.com/kuNal8E3rw
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 1, 2024
While, Warren's outing was serviceable, there are a number of aspects worth investigating.
The starter posted a decent average depth of target at 8.4 yards and took only a single sack despite being pressured seven times. He didn't record a big-time play, but he had only a single turnover-worthy play to push his rate close to the national average after 26 dropbacks.
Warren was great at getting rid of the ball quickly, averaging just 2.17 seconds before release. The junior completed one of his five passes beyond 10 yards while pounding the tackle box for eight completions on 11 attempts with an NFL rating of 125.9.
The Michigan defense did its part, allowing just 10 points and no methodical drives.
Fresno State tallied an overall success of 36% — well below the national average of 47.5% — while failing to break any rushing attempt over 12 yards.
The Bulldogs were obliterated in rushing attempts. Michigan stuffed 11 of Fresno's 19 attempts as the Bulldogs posted a 15% Success Rate with an average of two yards per play.
While the run defense was stellar, cornerbacks created all the Havoc in the defensive backfield. Jyaire Hill and Aamir Hall each created a pass breakup, while Will Johnson and Zeke Berry intercepted passes from Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene.
How to Make College Football Picks for My Texas vs. Michigan Prediction
The handicap in this game comes down to two elements on opposite sides of the ball.
Michigan will use a heavy amount of inside zone read run concepts with quarterback Alex Orji and the running back pair of Mullings and Donovan Edwards.
Moore has shown in the past that if his team can find success with a particular run concept, there may not be a need to put the ball in the air.
The biggest question is the run defense for Texas' interior.
Starters Bill Norton, Alfred Collins and Broughton fetched three of the lowest run defense grades, per PFF. The starting trio created one stop — defined as a complete failure of the offense — in a combined 27 rushing attempts from Colorado State.
The Michigan defense maintained the program's standard against Fresno State.
The Bulldogs saw 15 pressures and 11 quarterback hurries in passing attempts, and bell-cow running back Malik Sherrod was limited to 24 yards on 14 carries.
The Longhorns saw a lot of positives from Gibson on the ground, but a mark of 2.7 yards after contact could indicate that Texas will struggle to create explosives against Michigan.
After utilizing quarters and Cover 3 against Fresno, expect the Wolverines' defensive line to handle the rush while maximum pass protection is used in zone coverage.
The preseason Game of the Year odds fell as a pick'em for this game with little movement. Texas took a bit of money before Week 1, and that number quickly became the Longhorns by a touchdown.
Both teams did what was asked from an oddsmakers' perspective in their first game, as Michigan missed a cover by a point and Texas dominated a spread that nearly closed at five touchdowns.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian's dominance of a one-dimensional Colorado State team has created a wide delta on a number that was previously a pick.
With the Longhorns' defensive line grading out poorly against the Rams' rush, Michigan has a path to run the ball and dominate the clock like a service academy.
Michigan vs Texas Prediction: Michigan +7 (-120) or Better
Texas vs. Michigan Betting Trends
- Texas has landed 69% of the bets and 71% of the money to cover the spread.
- The under has taken only 21% of the tickets but has generated 42% of the money wagered.
- 90% of bets and 99% of the money are on Texas to win outright.
- Texas opened as a -3 favorite, but the line has ballooned all the way to Longhorns -7 or -6.5, depending on the book.
How to Watch Texas vs. Michigan: Start Time, TV Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Michigan vs. Texas is set for a 12 p.m. ET kickoff, although with the game on FOX, the actual start time will likely be several minutes after noon. The game is live from Michigan Stadium, aka The Big House, in Ann Arbor, Michigan. While the TV channel for Texas vs. Michigan is FOX, you can stream the game on YouTube TV, Sling, fubo and any other streaming platforms that feature the FOX networks.
Michigan vs Texas Weather
