The No. 5 Texas Longhorns (13-2, 7-1 SEC) and No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2, 7-2 Big Ten) meet in the Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Friday, Jan. 10.
Texas covered the opening number against Clemson in the 1st round of the playoff, 38-24, before surviving a quarterfinals upset bid by Arizona State in double overtime, 39-31.
Ohio State, meanwhile, has looked like the hottest team in the country after dropping its regular-season finale to Michigan, 13-10. The Buckeyes ran through Tennessee, 42-17, in the 1st round and dismantled No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl by a score of 41-21.
Ohio State enters as a -6 favorite with the over/under set at 53.5.
Let's take a look at our Texas vs. Ohio State picks and college football predictions for the Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff on Friday, Jan. 10.
Texas vs. Ohio State Picks, Predictions
The College Football Playoff hasn't been the most entertaining set of football games.
But this semifinal contest has all the makings of an ESPN Instant Classic.
Two monster brands, the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns, will compete for a bid to the National Championship game. I’m sure Matthew McConaughey and LeBron James will be roaming the sidelines for this one (actually, the Lakers play the Hornets tonight).
Although, it’s worth asking if this game lost some shine after the past few weeks.
Ohio State has been locked in since losing to Michigan. En route to the semifinals, it obliterated Tennessee and Oregon, winning by a combined score of 83-38.
Meanwhile, Texas has looked shaky in its CFP run, with its defense giving up explosive play after explosive play to Clemson and Arizona State. The Horns were a bad non-targeting call away from not being in the Cotton Bowl.
As such, the Buckeyes have been pushed way up in the markets, now laying 6 at the time of writing.
Will Ohio State continue its run of dominance? Is Texas live in this game? Are we in for a shootout or a grinder? We polled our staff on the side and total for Texas vs Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
Let's dive into what our staff thinks.
Spread
Our Spread Pick: Texas +6
By John Feltman
It's a tale as old as time, as we have another example of market overreaction to Friday night's Cotton Bowl matchup.
Ohio State was dead in the water after its embarrassing loss to Michigan. Everybody wrote it off, and one of the most talented rosters in the country was an accident waiting to happen.
But the Buckeyes woke up, and they’re now laying six against Texas in the semifinals.
On the other hand, we've seen Texas barely scrape by in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and there is no question that they have yet to play their best game of football.
The Buckeyes have dominated the public discourse. Everybody thinks there’s no way they can lose.
But I’ve seen this far too many times. Things are never this simple.
Ohio State deserves its flowers. The Buckeyes have always had the talent, and they’ve played to that talent level over the past few weeks.
Quarterback Will Howard has played mistake-free, and the passing game has started to open up. Wideout Jeremiah Smith is a freak, and he would arguably be the No. 1 pick in this year's NFL Draft if he were eligible.
That said, I’m fading the Buckeyes for two main reasons: Will Howard and the secondary.
Howard’s been excellent lately, but I think he’ll see some regression against an elite secondary. Texas will be his biggest test to date, and I actually think the market is severely underrating the Longhorns’ elite pass rush.
It’s nearly impossible to throw the ball consistently against the Horns’ secondary. Texas ranks above the 98th percentile of FBS teams in:
- Pass Success Rate allowed
- Early Down EPA per Play allowed
- Late Down EPA per Play allowed
- Havoc
- Pass Explosiveness allowed
I know what you’re thinking: “Feltman, Arizona State had over 500 yards of offense last week. The defense is fraudulent!”
I’ve heard that a few times. Everyone should take a deep breath and look at the box score.
The offense had two explosive drives in the first quarter and was hardly on the field for the rest of the game. You could say the same thing about the Texas game — the defense was on the field every time I looked at my television.
Arizona State extended drives and controlled the clock, which is why it managed so many yards. Quinn Ewers also threw a brutal interception early in the second half, giving the Sun Devils even more time to possess the ball.
I still don’t trust Howard in a big game. He needs to prove it to me. I don't think Ohio State’s offense will be so dominant in this one.
Therefore, the handicap likely comes down to Texas’ offense.
Where has Arch Manning been? I want to see him used more in short-yardage or early-down run situations. Those packages have been deadly.
Ohio State has an elite defense, but the Buckeyes’ defensive front can be pushed around, where they rank below average in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Of course, this might not matter, as Texas can’t run the ball consistently. But I’m hoping Steve Sarkisian has been holding back the Manning packages for a reason — hopefully, to keep everything off of film. I’m banking on him cooking up some new looks and wrinkles that the Buckeyes might not be ready for.
I’ve been disappointed with Ewers throughout the year. However, he shreds Cover 1 defenses and can be elite when avoiding mistakes. And if he puts Texas into an early hole, the Horns could turn to Manning for a comeback, which might raise the team's overall offensive ceiling.
Ultimately, I think it’s important for all bettors to evaluate a team’s entire body of work before overreacting and falling into recency bias.
I think Texas +6 is an outrageous number. If money keeps pouring in on the Buckeyes and we get a +7 before kickoff, I’ll obliterate that number.
Our staff likes Texas, and I wholeheartedly agree.
Over/Under
Over 53.5 | 7 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 53.5 | 3 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 53.5
Our staff likes the over, and I agree.
Unlike my colleague, John, I think the Longhorns’ defense is monstrously overvalued. They played a relatively soft schedule of opposing offenses — especially opposing passing attacks — and it looked that way during this CFP run.
So, when Texas played Clemson, Cade Klubnik threw for 340 yards. When Texas played Arizona State — a rush-heavy squad, mind you — Sam Leavitt managed 222 aerial yards, and the Sun Devils almost cracked 300 yards on the ground.
Those results don’t give me too much confidence, especially against a new-look Ohio State squad.
Ryan Day tried playing “man-ball” all year by over-establishing the run. But the Buckeyes have finally realized they don’t have to do anything but toss the ball up to a historically talented receiving corps and let the explosive plays flow like water. It’s really that simple.
As such, they dropped over 40 on Tennessee and Oregon, two secondaries I’m still very high on. I can only imagine what Jeremiah Smith and Co. will do to the Longhorns.
Meanwhile, Quinn Ewers should manage to move the ball. Ohio State plays a heavy amount of Cover 1, which Ewers has wrecked throughout the year, posting a whopping 23% explosive play rate.
Buckeyes high safety Jordan Hancock is slightly exploitable on the back end, and Matthew Golden has really come into his own on deeper routes.
The other side of this argument is that Texas still can’t and won’t be able to run the ball against Ohio State’s front seven, leading to a few too many obvious passing situations for the mistake-prone Ewers. And perhaps Texas has enough juice in the secondary to at least moderately slow down Ohio State’s juggernaut offense.
But the staff and I are banking on the opposite happening.
More Ways to Bet Texas vs. Ohio State
Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+110 · Play to +100)
By Doug Ziefel
The market seems to have overcorrected on Ohio State freshman phenom wide receiver Jeremiah Smith's touchdown odds.
Yes, Smith is consistent, but his big performance against Oregon has overinflated him, and he will certainly draw attention from the Longhorns.
That opens the door for Emeka Egbuka to find the end zone in this matchup. Egbuka has quietly found pay dirt 10 times this season and has scored in eight of his 14 games.
Aside from Egbuka's production, Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard is heavily favored to throw at least two touchdowns in this matchup, and with Smith holding odds of +450 to score twice, it's likely he will find another option if he does throw multiple.
Egbuka is being overlooked here. Not only have we noted his prior scoring production this season, but he also leads the Buckeyes in red-zone targets — and that includes him not seeing a single red-zone target in either of the last two games.
He's bound to break out here, and we're getting a great price for him to do so.
Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards & Anytime TD (+115 · Play to +105)
By Alex Hinton
I have backed Jeremiah Smith in Ohio State's first two CFP games. In those games, he has 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns. He's now over 1,200 yards on the season to go along with 14 touchdown receptions.
Texas has one of the nation's best secondaries, led by Jim Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron, who has five interceptions and 11 passes defensed this season.
However, if matched up one-on-one, I'm going with Smith in that matchup given the size and speed advantages he has over Barron.
Additionally, Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done a good job of moving Smith around and scheming him touches. Smith is just as dangerous racking up YAC yardage as he is making contested catches downfield.
Smith leads a deep group of Ohio State pass-catchers. That makes it hard to double him, Emeka Egubka or Carnell Tate (who has been quiet of late).
As a result, Smith has posted at least 80 yards in nine of his 14 games and a touchdown in 11 of those games. Expect him to be featured early and often once again.
Texas vs. Ohio State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- Texas vs. Ohio State Spread: Texas +6 · Ohio State -6
- Texas vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 53.5
- Texas vs. Ohio State Moneyline: Texas +185 · Ohio State -225
