Texas at Oklahoma Betting Odds & Pick: Which Team Will Bounce Back in the Red River Showdown? (Oct. 10)

Texas at Oklahoma Odds

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It's Red River Rivalry Week, where the Longhorns and Sooners will meet for the 116th time and the right to three separate trophies. Texas leads the overall series with a 62-48-5 record but Oklahoma has won four of the last five and 14 of 21 overall, including each of the past two.

In the Tom Herman and Lincoln Riley era (since 2017), Oklahoma owns a 3-1 SU record with the teams meeting once in the Big 12 championship. However, Texas has covered three of the four — all as touchdown-plus underdogs.

The first meeting between these two storied programs came all the way back in 1900 when Texas won by a final score of 28-2. I can promise you Oklahoma will score more than two points on Saturday but let's dive deeper into this Big 12 showdown.

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Neither Oklahoma nor Texas arrive in Dallas in any sort of stellar form. Each team opened their season with a blowout win over a cupcake and then played in two tightly contested conference games.

Texas pulled out an extremely fortunate overtime win against Texas Tech before dropping a game against TCU after a late fumble at the goal line kept the Longhorns out of the end zone for the potential game-winning touchdown.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma blew a big lead in a major upset loss at home against Kansas State and then dropped its second straight in Ames in a competitive game against Iowa State. As a result, OU is 0-2 in the Big 12 for the first time in 22 years.

The College Football Playoff hopes for both are likely all but gone but this is still Texas-Oklahoma. And this game still has major implications in regards to the Big 12. The loser will likely not have a shot at getting to the Big 12 title game.

Clean It Up

Both Texas and Oklahoma have put up plenty of points with ease to start the season, but the defenses have struggled mightily to say the least.

They've also been extremely sloppy overall. Both teams rank in the bottom five in the nation in missed tackles and penalties. Whichever team can clean up the mistakes better might ultimately end up deciding this game.

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When Oklahoma Has The Ball

Since Lincoln Riley arrived in Norman, his quarterbacks and passing attacks have received all of the press — and rightfully so. However, everything Riley wants to do starts with the run — and that just hasn't been there this year.

The offensive line play is nowhere near the level we've seen in recent years. Combine that with the Sooners' backfield attrition and you get a very limp ground game. Remember that Rhamondre Stevenson is serving a four-game suspension to start the season, Trey Sermon chose to transfer to Ohio State, and Kennedy Brooks — who was coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons — opted out.

Just take a look at Oklahoma's rush yard averages and respective national rankings in the Riley era:

• 2017: 5.6 (13th)
• 2018: 6.6 (1st)
• 2019: 6.0 (5th)
• 2020: 3.6 (51st)

There's just no balance on this offense right now. The Sooners only averaged 3.5 yards per carry against Missouri State in their opener. That is putting all of the pressure on the inexperienced Spencer Rattler. He has all the talent in the world and has risen to the occasion for the most part but he's still made a number of late key mistakes that cost Oklahoma in both losses.

The Texas run defense has been torn up to start the year but I don't think OU can really exploit that weakness with its current roster.

When Texas Has The Ball

Senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger shouldn't have any issues moving the ball against a nonexistent Oklahoma defense. Ehlinger did struggle at times against TCU but that happened last season against Gary Patterson's defense as well. This is a much easier task.

The Sooners will get a boost from the likely return of star defensive end Ronnie Perkins, who recently won his appeal. That will help a bit but this defense is still a sieve.

I think Texas can exploit Oklahoma's lack of size at the cornerback position. Texas has an abundance of size at wide receivers, which could cause major issues for a group of smaller in statue Sooner corners, who all stand under 6'0 and have struggled to start the year.

Oklahoma will score its fair share of points as it always does, so Texas will need to avoid settling for field goals once it gets inside the red zone in order to keep up. That shouldn't be much of an issue against an Oklahoma defense that has allowed both Power 5 opponents to score on every trip inside the red zone. Meanwhile, if not for an unlucky fumble a the goal line, Texas would have found pay dirt in each of its trips inside the 20 this season.

Lastly, keep your eye on Texas wideout Jordan Whittington, who returned to practice this week. He's an explosive player that Texas can  move all over the field and use in different ways to get him the ball in space.

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Betting Analysis & Bet

I personally make this game a coin flip, so I'd love to get Texas at +3, which is what I'm waiting for.

However, regardless of whether or not that field goal spread ever pops, I'll be looking to bet Texas live. This game in of itself sets up for a great live trading opportunity. There should be plenty of points in a back-and-forth affair.

And based on recent history, Oklahoma will come out of the gates flying. Under Riley, the Sooners have perennially been one of the top first quarter teams in the nation and have particularly excelled on the first drive of the game. That's where you really see the brilliance of Riley's script.

In the past four meetings against Texas, Oklahoma has scored on all four opening drives, including touchdowns on three of the four. And this season, Rattler has thrived in the first half before seeing his success rate drop precipitously in the second half.

Part of that speaks to benefiting from Riley's script. And also his inexperience trying to force balls late in close games. We've certainly seen OU fall apart late this year.

There's a good shot Oklahoma will take a lead at some point in the first quarter and we can get a better number on Texas in the live betting market.

Ultimately, I believe Texas wins this game. I think the difference will be its size advantage on the outside at receiver in addition to its superior talent in the secondary and backfield. Plus, the Horns have the much more experienced quarterback in Ehlinger, who will be playing in his fifth Red River Rivalry.

A critical Rattler mistake late in the game might cost Oklahoma for a third straight time in 2020.

Pick: Texas +3 or better, live or pregame

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