Nearly 124 years ago, the Texas Longhorns (5-0, 1-0 SEC) and Oklahoma Sooners (4-1, 1-4) stepped on the field in Austin, Texas to start one of the biggest rivalries in college football history.
Now, on Saturday, Oct. 12, they meet for the first time as members of the SEC at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Longhorns lead the series 63-51-5 all-time, also owning the longest winning streak in the series at 8. While history favors Texas, the Sooners have won seven of the past nine games in Cotton Bowl Stadium.
Despite the 4-1 start for the Sooners, the 2024 season has been a struggle in Norman.
Texas has moved to a -17 favorite with a total of 49, but there's extra intrigue considering Texas has Georgia on deck.
Let's dive into my Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Pick, Odds & Spread
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -120 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -880 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -102 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +580 |
- Texas vs. Oklahoma spread: Texas -16.5 (-120)
- Texas vs. Oklahoma over/under: 48.5 (12o / 108u)
- Texas vs. Oklahoma moneyline: Texas -880 · Oklahoma ML +580
- Texas vs. Oklahoma picks: Texas Team Total Over 31.5 · Texas -17
My Oklahoma vs. Texas best bet is on the Longhorns to cover the 17-point spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Texas Football Betting Preview
Texas sits on a strength of schedule rank of 101st, as a road win at Michigan serves as the best data point.
While the Longhorns boast the top pass-blocking unit in the nation, the Wolverines are also ranked as the top defensive pass-rush unit, per PFF.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers was hardly under duress during the game with Michigan logging a single sack on just 13 defensive pressures.
Ewers was flawless in 10 passing attempts with a crowded pocket, completing six passes with a touchdown and zero mistakes.
Quinn Ewers > Shadeur Sanders
But America isn’t ready for that conversation pic.twitter.com/SwU4u2odkS
— Nick Perkins (@NickyPerkss) September 7, 2024
Ewers will return to action for Texas, per Sarkisian, but any rustiness or inefficiency could lead to an appearance by the nation's best backup quarterback in Arch Manning.
Targets have been versatile for the Horns. Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden lead the team in receptions with an even split of snaps in the slot and wideout while displaying explosive numbers in yards per route run.
If there's an area of concern on offense, it's the offensive line's run blocking.
Texas ranks 72nd in Offensive Line Yards versus a top-20 mark in Success Rate, indicating that running backs Jaydon Blue, Jerrick Gibson and Quintrevion Wisner have gone above expectations in terms of highlight yards.
On the other side, the Longhorns haven't faced an offense inside the top 60 of SP+ yet. The two best offenses have come from Michigan and Mississippi State, each testing different units of Texas' defense.
The Wolverines posted a high 59% Success Rate in 22 rushing attempts but failed to produce any explosive runs. There's an expectation that Texas will see plenty of zone-read attempts from Oklahoma just as it did against Michigan.
While the Wolverines didn't post any explosives, Texas failed to stuff them at a national average level.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, attempted 29 passes in Week 6 against Texas, posting a horrible 28% Success Rate. Quarterback Michael Van Buren averaged 3.4 yards per play on pass plays, generating two explosives against the Longhorns.
Only one of the Bulldogs' 11 offensive possessions were considered explosive — defined as averaging 10 yards per play. Nonetheless, Texas more than doubled the Bulldogs in overall yards per play behind the offensive arsenal led by Manning.
Oklahoma Football Betting Preview
With two weeks to get healthy for the rivalry game of the season, Venables had a few somber updates on the roster.
The wide receiver unit will continue to have a number of absences against Texas.
Jalil Farooq has the highest chance of playing after suffering a broken foot, but he just came out of his boot for the first time this week.
However, Deion Burks continues to deal with a soft tissue injury that has not been resolved, and Andrel Anthony has missed additional practices after a setback that required surgery. Additionally, Nic Anderson is expected to miss Red River, leaving Oklahoma depleted at the wide receiver position.
Brent Venables from coaches show on WR injuries: See where Deion Burks is in a couple days, Jalil Farooq about to get out of his boot, Andrel Anthony recently had another clean up procedure on his knee and feels really good. #Sooners
— Mason Young (@Mason_Young_0) October 8, 2024
Michael Hawkins Jr. will continue to lead the offense at quarterback after taking over against Tennessee in Week 4.
The freshman has been the leading rusher on the team over the past two games, completing just 10-of-15 passes for no touchdowns in a victory over Auburn in Week 5.
The passing game has been tepid with no experienced targets, averaging a horrifically long time to throw at 3.4 seconds. Hawkins' depth has been limited, throwing over 20 yards only three times in 56 dropbacks.
Success Rate continues to be an issue for the Oklahoma offense, ranking 123rd in both pass and rush efficiency.
The Oklahoma defense was responsible for keeping the Tennessee game respectable despite a non-cover. The Volunteers were held without a methodical drive, executing an explosive drive on just two of their 17 possessions.
The high-powered Vols offense never got out of second gear against the Sooners, as Tennessee hit just three explosive passes the entire evening.
Defensive Havoc was the primary reason for the win over Auburn, as the Sooners now rank 17th nationally in that area. A 63-yard Kip Lewis pick six late in the fourth quarter sealed the victory over the Tigers.
That just happened. @KipLewis9 | #OUDNApic.twitter.com/xmmZmYgoma
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) September 28, 2024
Oklahoma vs. Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Texas match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 29 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 12 |  |
Oklahoma Offense vs. Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 123 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 120 | 2 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 53 | 45 |
| PFF Coverage | 1 | 66 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 84 | 21 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 96 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (32) | 25.5 (31) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (53) | 56% (67) |
How to Bet My Texas vs. Oklahoma Pick
A simple question I asked Sarkisian at SEC Media Days brought an answer that has been a crucial handicap for the Longhorns this season.
I asked Sark why there was a severe drop-off in red-zone efficiency. Texas had moved from fourth in red-zone efficiency during Sarkisian's first year in 2021 to 120th in 2023. The head coach indicated that the loss of Roschon Johnson and Bijan Robinson had a great impact on play-calling at the goal line.
A follow-up question asked Sarkisian if there are players to fill those shoes.
"We have about two dozen candidates," Sarkisian responded.
He has proven himself correct, as Texas ranks fourth nationally in red-zone touchdown efficiency.
Texas has entered the red zone 27 times this season, resulting in one field goal and 24 touchdowns. Michigan ranks as the 12th-best defense nationally, per SP+, but the Longhorns averaged a high 4.5 points on possessions that crossed the 40-yard line.
Twelve different players have logged a touchdown for the Horns, with nine players recording at least two touchdowns.
Oklahoma doesn't have enough data points to provide a stable answer to red-zone efficiency, as opponents have crossed the 20-yard line on just 10 possessions with eight scores as a result. Only 17-of-68 opponent drives have entered the Sooners' extended red zone, resulting in an average of 3.1 points per trip.
Texas will be in scoring position often considering the Sooners' results against Auburn. The Tigers created explosive drives at a rate that was double the national average, allowing eight of Auburn's 12 possessions to rack up two first downs.
Oklahoma has struggled in the secondary with a Defensive Passing Success Rate and coverage grade outside the top 65. The Sooners run exclusively Cover 3 and quarters, two schemes Texas quarterbacks have seen the most in 2024.
The Longhorns have had big success against those coverages, including a 61% Success Rate against Cover 3. Ewers dominated Cover 3 in 253 plays last season, averaging a 58% Success Rate while creating an explosive play on one of every four passing attempts.
Oklahoma is expected to struggle on the offensive side of the ball despite Texas' poor strength of schedule.
The Michigan game provided the experience the Longhorns needed against the inside zone read of Hawkins and running back Jovantae Barnes. While Taylor Tatum has come on for the Sooners, there's no chance of a breakaway run for Barnes at 2.9 yards after first contact.
Without healthy targets at wideout or the slot for Oklahoma, Hawkins is expected to struggle in passing downs where the Sooners rank 128th in Success Rate.
Action Network's betting power ratings call for Texas to be favored by two touchdowns at a neutral site like the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
A projected total of 59 points is derived from tempo and plenty of mathematics around drive and scoring efficiency. There's enough to believe that these two offenses will look to speed the defenses up, as both average just over 25 seconds per play.
Look for Texas' red-zone touchdown efficiency to play a large factor at Red River, while exercising a half-point buy on the side to remove any backdoor activity for Oklahoma.
Pick: Texas Team Total Over 31.5 · Texas -17
Oklahoma vs. Texas Betting Trends
- Texas has landed 33% of the tickets and 40% of the money.
- The under has taken 21% of the bets and generated 32% of the cash.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Weather
