The Texas Longhorns (10-1, 6-1 SEC) head to College Station on Saturday to take on the Texas A&M Aggies (8-3, 5-2) in a game with major SEC Championship implications. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas' move to the SEC gave the college football world the return of the Lone Star Showdown. Texas and Texas A&M will play for the first time since 2011.
The return of the biggest in-state brawl will have all the drama, as the winner will advance to Atlanta to compete for the SEC Championship.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian enters the game on a 4-game winning streak, failing to cover all but 1 spread against an injured Florida team.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M is in prime position to win 2 straight and earn a bye in the College Football Playoff despite suffering 3 losses on the season.
Texas opened as a -6.5 favorite, a number that has seen steady Texas A&M money through 5. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 49.
Let's dive into my Texas vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.
Texas vs Texas A&M Prediction
- Texas vs. Texas A&M Pick: Texas A&M +5
My Texas A&M vs. Texas best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas vs Texas A&M Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 49 -110 / -110 | -220 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 49 -110 / -110 | +180 |
- Texas vs Texas A&M Spread: Texas -5.5 (-110) · Texas A&M +5.5 (-110)
- Texas vs Texas A&M Over/Under: 49 Points
- Texas vs Texas A&M Moneyline: Texas -220 · Texas A&M +180
Texas vs Texas A&M Preview
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Is Ewers Healthy?
Quarterback Quinn Ewers will enter the game questionable with an ankle injury. Ewers attempted just five passes in the second half of a victory over Kentucky last week, as Sarkisian desired a run-heavy approach to limit injury.
Texas' only option for explosive plays comes from the passing game due to a rank of 117th in Rush EPA.
While the drop to backup quarterback Arch Manning would see a minimal change to Texas' power rating, a bigger concern is the lack of clean possessions. Texas ranks 87th in offensive momentum killer, a statistic that summarizes a possession's interruption by turnovers, missed field goals, sacks and 10-plus yard penalties.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's nickel defense has earned a top-five rank in almost every analytic.
If there's an area where Texas could improve, it's against the rush, as the Longhorns sit outside the top 45 in Success Rate and Line Yards.
While the interior has been the target of rushing opponents, tackle grading is down from last year's unit. The Longhorns rank 93rd in broken tackles allowed, indicating Texas A&M could gain extra yards in space.
Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview: The Good and the Bad
Texas A&M assembled one of the best defensive lines with the help of the transfer portal, specifically edge Nic Scourton. The Aggies rank top-10 in Defensive Havoc, thanks to a top-25 pass rush and a top-five secondary in pass breakups.
One area of concern comes against the rush, as Auburn chipped away on the ground to record 46 plays in standard downs compared to 26 in passing downs.
Those issues were the biggest contributors to a blowout at the hands of South Carolina, as the Gamecocks posted a 61% Success Rate on 43 rushing attempts.
The offense has transformed under freshman quarterback Marcel Reed. While the mobile quarterback has bumped the rushing statistics for the Aggies, the passing numbers have spiraled.
Texas A&M ranks 128th in On-Target Rate, a measurement of hitting desired receivers in stride.
The offensive line's consistent issues with protection have hindered Reed, who has seen a combined 38 pressures in recent losses to South Carolina and Auburn.
Texas vs Texas A&M Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 28 | 26 |  |
| Quality Drives | 28 | 56 | |
Texas A&M Offense vs. Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 4 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 49 | 109 |
| PFF Coverage | 1 | 80 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 115 | 8 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 45 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (37) | 28.1 (95) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (85) | 61% (20) |
Texas vs Texas A&M Pick & Prediction
The Aggies have struggled on defense in terms of giving up the big play on early downs.
Texas A&M is highly successful at getting opponents behind schedule with a top-five Success Rate, but the plays that are successful against the Aggies have been gashers.
This may be an area Texas is unable to expose with a lackluster Rush EPA number.
The Longhorns run a heavy amount of outside zone with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue. Texas A&M has specialized in shutting down outside zone this season with a 62% Success Rate.
In fact, edge Shemar Stewart is one of the highest-graded run defenders in FBS.
pure dominance from Shemar Stewart to set the edge pic.twitter.com/PJi1nTgE6y
— Efram Geller (@Mr1rrelevant) November 25, 2024
Once Texas is in passing downs, Elko's nickel defense can send additional blitz. The secondary has poor grading in coverage, per PFF, but a contested catch rate of third nationally indicates an aggressive style of ball-hawking.
Ewers hasn't been the most accurate over the second half of the season, falling to 41st in creating catchable balls.
Pick: Texas A&M +5 or Better
Texas vs Texas A&M Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Texas travels to College Station on Wednesday, Nov. 30 to take on Texas A&M at 7:30 p.m. on ABC.
Texas vs Texas A&M Betting Trends
Texas vs Texas A&M Weather
