Texas State (6-5, 4-3 Sun Belt) takes on South Alabama (6-5, 5-2 Sun Belt) in Sun Belt action on Friday, November 29th.
The game kicks off at 3:30 PM ET and can be seen live on ESPN+.
Texas State is a slim 1-point favorite in the contest, with a 60.5-point over/under.
Both teams had higher hopes for the season and, up to this point, have to feel disappointed in how things have played out.
South Alabama still has an outside chance at winning its half of the league but will need some help, while Texas State cannot mathematically claim the Sun Belt Western Division.
This should be a great game between two high-flying offenses and two great quarterbacks, Gio Lopez and Jordan McCloud.
Read on for our Texas State vs South Alabama predictions and college football picks.
Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction
- Texas State vs. South Alabama Pick: South Alabama ML (-105)
My Texas State vs. South Alabama best bet is on the Jaguars to win outright, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas State vs South Alabama Odds
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 61 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 61 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- Texas State vs South Alabama Point Spread: Texas State -1 (-110) · South Alabama +1 (-110)
- Texas State vs South Alabama Total: Over/Under 61
- Texas State vs South Alabama Moneyline: Texas State -115 · South Alabama -105
Texas State vs South Alabama Preview
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Texas State comes in off a disappointing and quite stunning home loss last week against Georgia State.
The Bobcats were three-touchdown favorites in the contest but completely fell apart in the second quarter and gave up 24 straight points.
Texas State committed four turnovers and never found an offensive rhythm until it was too late.
This is just another example of Texas State not playing to its potential and failing to make defensive stops at key junctures of football games, which has been the season's story.
G.J. Kinne is doing an excellent job in San Marcos, but regardless of this week's outcome, this season will undoubtedly be a disappointment.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview
South Alabama has won four of five games and, if not for a complete collapse in the fourth quarter against Georgia Southern three weeks ago, would be in the driver’s seat to win the Sun Belt.
Despite the circumstances, the Jaguars are playing excellent football right now and, with a win in this game, have an opportunity to put pressure on the teams ahead of them in the Sun Belt West.
The South Alabama defense has stepped up in conference play, holding opponents to 18 points and 330 yards per game.
I look for an impressive showing out of this group in their season finale with an outside chance of getting to the conference championship game.
Texas State vs South Alabama
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas State and South Alabama match up statistically:
Texas State Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 62 | |
South Alabama Offense vs. Texas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 51 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 58 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 94 | 123 |
| PFF Coverage | 109 | 49 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 102 | 51 |
| Middle 8 | 72 | 26 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.1 (28) | 27.5 (74) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (57) | 53% (64) |
Texas State vs South Alabama Pick & Prediction
I will take South Alabama here in the one on the moneyline.
Texas State had high hopes coming into this season as the pre-season conference favorite to win the league, but this team has been fairly average by Sun Belt standards this season.
The Bobcats have beaten up some of the weaker teams in the conference but put themselves in a tough spot with a home loss against Louisiana in October. Last week’s result against Georgia State was stunning, as was the 38 first-half points and 504 total yards surrendered.
I am struggling to find a substantial angle for why Texas State is showing up here, and there are plenty of angles for the Jaguars.
South Alabama has a real chance to put pressure on Louisiana, which plays on Saturday against UL-Monroe. A South Alabama win would require Louisiana to win to stay atop the Sun Belt West Division.
Texas State's defense has been a significant liability this year. The Bobcats rank 134th nationally in Explosiveness allowed and 130th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The South Alabama offense has averaged 429 yards and 34 points per game over the past four weeks and should be able to run the football here. The Jags rank 30th nationally in Offensive Explosiveness and 12th in Finishing Drives.
Texas State has feasted offensively against some of the weaker teams in the conference but struggled in matchups against Old Dominion and Louisiana. The Bobcats' high-flying offense didn’t score a first-half touchdown in either of these games and struggled to stay on the field.
The team ranks just 133rd nationally in Havoc allowed against them, and we have consistently seen Texas State press and force the issue. The flippant play has resulted in 18 fumbles on the season (eight lost) and 11 interceptions thrown. The turnover margin heavily favors South Alabama, which is excellent defensively in forcing turnovers and has registered 17 takeaways this year.
Texas State is a talented team, and its offense is a thing of beauty when it is clicking, but the lack of effort last week concerns me. This team has gone long stretches where it cannot move the football and has been held to single digits in a half six different times.
There is too much inconsistency here, and South Alabama is showing up at home with everything to play for.
Pick: South Alabama ML (-105, bet365)
Texas State vs South Alabama Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Texas State vs South Alabama will be played at place, on Friday, Nov. 29 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.
