The Texas State Bobcats will go on the road to take on the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. This game is set to kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU from Veteran Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama.
Texas State (2-2) is currently a 13-point favorite in this matchup over the 1-4 Troy Trojans. This game has an over/under set at 57 points, indicating this game may see a bit more scoring than average.
I personally think this will be the case, which leads to my favorite pick of the game. Let’s dive into my Texas State vs. Troy predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 3.
Texas State vs Troy Odds, Spread, Line
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | -550 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | +425 |
- Texas State vs Troy Point Spread: Texas State -13.5 (-115) · Troy +13.5 (-105)
- Texas State vs Troy Over/Under: 57.5
- Texas State vs Troy Moneyline: Texas StateML -550 · Troy ML +425
Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans Prediction
- Texas State vs. Troy Pick: Over 57
My Troy vs. Texas State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Spread
I am not betting the spread in this game, as I don't see value on Texas State or Troy.
Over/Under
My Troy vs. Texas State best bet is on the over at 57.
Moneyline
With Texas State entering as a big favorite, I don't see value on either team to win outright.
Prediction
Troy and Texas State to go over the total.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: Defense Holding Them Back
After generating some buzz as a potential G5 playoff candidate, Texas State has fallen out of the race over the last two weeks with back-to-back close losses to Arizona State and Sam Houston State.
The Bobcats showed promise of an improved defense over the first two weeks of the season, but it now largely appears this team is similar to what they were last season.
Texas State currently ranks 44th on offense and 109th on defense in SP+, compared to 37th and 110th last season.
It also sits 44th in offensive success rate but just 104th in finishing drives and 83rd in explosiveness. It's also 133rd in havoc rate allowed.
The Bobcats pass the ball 51% of the time and rank 69th in success rate and 97th in PPA through the air. When rushing, they are 33rd in success rate and 61st in PPA, but they only run the ball at the 74th-highest rate in FBS.
Quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for 465 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions this season while averaging 0.24 EPA per dropback. The James Madison transfer has a 57% dropback success rate as well, which is a really solid rate.
Texas State’s defense was the weak point of the team last season, and while it hasn't shown a ton of improvement in terms of SP+, it has still posted some decent numbers. The Bobs come at 22nd in yards per pass attempt allowed, ninth in PFF tackling grade and 18th in PFF pass rushing grade.
This team currently ranks first in defensive success rate and passing success rate allowed, but there are a couple of games of missing data that appear to be skewing this.
In its lone FBS game with PBP data this season, Texas State allowed an 86th percentile success rate, 70th percentile EPA per play and 5.93 yards per play to Sam Houston. The Bearkats gashed them on the run with a 93rd percentile EPA per rush compared to 32nd percentile through the air.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Struggles Continue
Troy is now 1-4 in the post-Jon Sumrall era. The Trojans have fallen this season to Nevada, Memphis, Iowa and UL Monroe, with their only win coming against Florida A&M.
Troy ranks 77th in offensive success rate, 69th in explosiveness, and 110th in havoc allowed. However, it's eighth in finishing drives so far.
The Trojans have a 50-50 split in terms of pass-to-run ratio and are 92nd in rushing success rate and 64th in passing success rate. Their rushing game has been more explosive, as they are 24th in rushing explosiveness compared to 104th in passing explosiveness.
The key player for this offense is receiver Devonte Ross, who leads the squad with 28 catches for 408 yards and six touchdowns on the year.
Troy’s defense ranks 130th in success rate, 111th in finishing drives, 120th in havoc, and 113th in average field position. It's also 54th in explosiveness allowed, which has come primarily from the passing defense, which ranks 38th in explosiveness allowed compared to 93rd on the ground.
The Trojans come into this game at 132nd in rushing success rate allowed and 122nd in rushing PPA allowed. They have only been slightly better against the pass, where they are 118th in passing success rate allowed and 108th in passing PPA allowed.
Troy vs Texas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Troy and Texas State match up statistically:
Texas State Offense vs. Troy Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 76 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 81 | 77 |  |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 115 | |
Troy Offense vs. Texas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 110 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 132 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 90 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 18 | 95 |
| PFF Coverage | 112 | 88 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 103 | 113 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.5 (20) | 29.8 (120) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (97) | 59% (38) |
How to Bet My Texas State vs Troy Pick
Neither of these teams are particularly strong on defense, but I believe the worst unit in this game is the Troy defense. Additionally, Texas State’s offense is the best unit in this game, which provides for a clear matchup advantage.
On the other side, more remains unknown, but I do think Troy will still be able to manage to score some points in this game. They have an explosive rushing game that I think will be able to take advantage of a weakness in Texas State’s defense.
At 57 points, I like taking the over on this game. Texas State should be a clear favorite to win this game, but its defense still appears to have too many holes to trust at this point.
Pick: Over 57 (Play to 58.5)
How to Watch Texas State vs Troy
| Location: | Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 3 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
College Football Betting Trends for Texas State vs Troy
- 69% of the bets and 67% of the money is on Troy to cover the spread.
- 75% of the tickets and 84% of the cash is on the over.
Troy vs Texas State Weather
