It's a terrific time in Ames, Iowa, as the Iowa State Cyclones (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) have a sprint to an undefeated regular season in the Big 12.
It's been a fantastic season for head coach Matt Campbell's team, and it's well on its way to a bid in the Big 12 Championship game.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-3, 3-2) come to town on Saturday. They've been inconsistent for most of the season. They are 5-3 on the year and one win away from a bid to bowl season.
Oddsmakers have Iowa State as a 13.5-point favorite, and the total is 56.5.
Let's dive into my Texas Tech vs. Iowa State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Prediction
- Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Pick: Iowa State -13.5 (Play to -14)
My Texas Tech-Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclones to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- Texas Tech vs Iowa State Spread: Texas Tech +13.5 (-110) · Iowa State -13.5 (-110)
- Texas Tech vs Iowa State Over/Under: 56.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Texas Tech vs Iowa State Moneyline: Texas Tech +375 · Iowa State -500
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Preview
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview: Morton's Biggest Test
Texas Tech has been balanced for the most part, but lately, it's been getting gashed defensively. In a month, it has given 44 points to Cincinnati, 59 to Baylor and 35 last week to TCU.
There are a lot of defensive issues to be concerned about, and the injury report continues to pile up. It's tough to gauge what to expect from the Raiders defense, and it's already a tough matchup against the Cyclones.
The Red Raiders have been gashed on the ground and through the secondary, ranking outside the top 80 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate allowed. They have also struggled in the Havoc department, ranking 115th in the FBS.
Their opponents have also scored at Will when they've entered their territory, ranking outside the top 95 in finishing and quality drives allowed. Offensively, it's been a completely different story.
Quarterback Behren Morton has had a terrific season, throwing for 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions. As much as I've been a fan of Morton's play, he has an exceptionally tough matchup against ISU's defense.
The Cyclones have arguably one of the best secondaries in the entire country, and they've been adamant about holding up when opponents enter their territory.
The path to a cover for the Raiders is capitalizing in the red zone. They enter the matchup 11th in the FBS in Finishing Drives and 36th in Quality Drives.
It'll be interesting to see which unit has the upper hand, but unfortunately for Tech, I would have to side with the Cyclones, considering they're the home team.
I'm intrigued by backing the Raiders as two-touchdown underdogs, but their defense has too many injuries and other concerns that have been glaringly bad over the last month, which makes me hesitant to back them.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Locking It Down
Iowa State is coming off a bye, and before that, it barely squeaked by UCF at home. It was an overwhelming home favorite but had to come from behind to win the game, 38-35.
QB Rocco Becht has had a terrific season. He hasn't lit up the stat sheet, but he's thrown for 11 touchdowns and 1,712 yards.
The Cyclones have lacked an explosive offense since Brock Purdy and Breece Hall departed, but Becht seems to be the perfect fit. They enter the matchup fifth in Pass Success Rate.
The offensive line has also done a tremendous job, ranking 19th in Havoc allowed and 64th in Line Yards.
They also have capabilities when they've gotten into opposing territory, ranking inside the top 25 in both Finishing and Quality Drives. The offense should find multiple drives of success against the struggling Raiders defense.
Defensively, they've been even better. The lone area that was a stunning discovery was the tackling department.
The Cyclones are 116th in PFF Tackling, which is pretty shocking considering how solid their defense is. They are an elite team in coverage, ranking eighth in PFF Coverage grade.
As much as I like the Raiders offense, the Cyclones should bounce back after a tough game against UCF before the bye. That was the most points they've allowed all season, and they've had two weeks to prepare.
Their elite secondary should shine here against the Red Raiders' passing attack. What's been most impressive has been their ability to lock down in the red zone.
That's excellent news against a Texas Tech team that has thrived in that department on offense. If Iowa State clean up the tackling, I see no reason why the it defense can't contain the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Iowa State match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 47 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 6 | |
Iowa State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 82 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 95 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 116 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 127 | 116 |
| PFF Coverage | 127 | 8 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 30 | 54 |
| Middle 8 | 18 | 83 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.3 (18) | 28.1 (88) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (101) | 56% (42) |
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Pick & Prediction
I like the spot here for the Iowa State coming off a bye. The market thinks it's giving too many points at home, but I like that it's under a critical number of 14.
Everybody thinks the Cyclones are overrated, but it was a perfect time to lay a clunker right before the bye. Campbell is 7-7 off a bye in his career.
However, ISU's offense started to click in the second half against UCF, so it should come out firing. The Texas Tech defense has been atrocious lately, so the Cyclones offense should move the ball at will.
I'll fade the public and ride with the sharps on this one before the number climbs back to -14.
Pick: Iowa State -13.5 (Play to -14)
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Texas Tech will head to Ames, Iowa, on Saturday afternoon to take on Iowa State at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Betting Trends
- 72% of bets and 79% of the money are on Texas Tech to cover the spread
- 90% of bets and 83% of the money on the moneyline are on Iowa State to win outright
- 76% of bets and 88% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
