Thursday nights are for football, and this week, we're lucky enough to have an ACC clash and a Sun Belt battle on tap.
The action kicks off in Huntington, West Virginia, when the Marshall Thundering Herd host the Georgia State Panthers in a Battle of the Belt.
Then, we'll head to Lane Stadium — one of the best atmospheres in college football — for a night game between the Virginia Tech Hokies and Boston College Eagles.
Our NCAAF writers broke down both games on Thursday, so continue reading for our Thursday college football odds and picks.
Thursday College Football Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Georgia State vs. Marshall Pick
By John Feltman
It's a fun belt Thursday night in Huntington, West Virginia, as the Georgia State Panthers (2-3, 0-2 Sun Belt) travel to take on the Marshall Thundering Herd (3-3, 1-1).
The Thundering Herd are coming off of a tough 24-23 loss at Georgia Southern, whereas the Panthers suffered a 21-14 defeat to Old Dominion.
Oddsmakers have the Herd as 9-point home favorites with the over/under at 51.5. Let’s dive into my Georgia State vs. Marshall predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 17.
Georgia State Panthers
The Panthers are a disaster on offense, and it doesn’t get much worse than losing to a bad Old Dominion team. Georgia State is 0-2 in Sun Belt play and must win this contest if it has any prayer of making a bowl game.
The offense ranks outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards. Running back Freddie Brock is averaging over five yards per carry, but the offensive line hasn’t done him any favors.
The Panthers rarely attempt to run the ball, which could be because they're constantly in a negative game script. Last week against ODU, they posted a 41% Success Rate on standard downs and only a 17% Success Rate on passing downs.
If things seem like they can't get worse, they certainly can. Head coach Dell McGee hasn’t announced a starting quarterback after backup Zach Gibson came in last week and completed all six of his pass attempts.
I assume Gibson will get the start, as Christian Veilleux has been given enough chances throughout the season. His numbers aren’t terrible, but McGee might want to shake things up.
The Panthers are also outside the top 115 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, so their offense has been a real disappointment. Their special teams also rank outside the top 110, so there are few bright spots for the program.
Defensively, they've been mediocre at best. They're 131st in Defensive Finishing Drives, so offenses have scored at will whenever they enter their territory.
Georgia State has been pushed around in the trench, shredded in the secondary and doesn’t create Havoc. Considering how bad it's been, it's astonishing that it's 53rd in PFF tackle grading.
I can’t back the Panthers right now. There are far too many questions on offense and no signs of the defense turning things around anytime soon.
Marshall Thundering Herd
I'm still trying to figure out how Marshall lost after leading, 23-3, late in the fourth quarter last week. Georgia Southern made a furious comeback and stunned the Thundering Herd.
It's been a bizarre season for the Herd, who have dealt with controversy at quarterback. Cole Pennington is out for the season with an injury, so Marshall has split the duties between Stone Earle and Braylon Braxton.
Braxton will likely get more reps moving forward, which is the best move for the offense. Braxton has been a great weapon on the ground and has also thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
This is a dream matchup for the Herd's offense. They're in the top 60 in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate, and they rank 22nd in Havoc Allowed. The offensive line has clearly done an excellent job.
The running game should be open for most of the evening, and their high-tempo offense should consistently move the chains. My lone concern is that they're outside the top 100 in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
Establishing an offensive rhythm has been a struggle, so they may have trouble putting up consistent touchdowns. This is an alarming statistic that should significantly impact the total.
Defensively, I love this matchup. Marshall ranks 29th in Passing Success Rate and 54th in Havoc.
Its defensive front should eat the Panthers' offensive line alive and force either Gibson or Veilleux into nightmare passing-down situations. The Herd are also an outstanding fourth in PFF coverage and 42nd in tackling.
The secondary is elite, so I don’t expect the Panthers' passing attack to have any success. Georgia State rarely runs the football, which should make for a great night for Marshall’s defense.
Georgia State vs. Marshall Prediction
I am smashing this under before it drops any further. You can grab Under 51.5 right now at FanDuel, though I expect the total to plummet if Braxton is announced as Marshall's starting quarterback.
Braxton loves to use his legs, so despite Marshall’s love of going up-tempo, the clock should be moving for most of the game. The Herd's struggles to establish consistency and finish drives give me cause for concern that they aren’t going to hang a crooked number on the Panthers’ defense, despite the soft matchup.
The Herd's elite secondary should dominate regardless of who starts at quarterback. The Herd may break out of their red-zone slump on offense, but I wouldn’t expect the Panthers to contribute much to the total.
The Panthers’ offense only scored 14 points against Old Dominion last week, and I doubt Gibson will be a sparkplug.
Pick: Under 51.5 (Play to 50)
| |
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Pick
By Cody Goggin
The Boston College Eagles (4-2, 1-1 ACC) will travel to Blacksburg, Virginia, on Thursday night to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies (3-3, 1-1). Kickoff at Lane Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN for this ACC matchup.
Virginia Tech is 3-3 on the season but is a 7-point home favorite. The over/under for this game is set at 48.5 points, as there may be slightly less scoring in this game than average.
While both teams are playing well to this point, I think there may be value on one of the sides in this game. Let’s dive into my Boston College vs Virginia Tech predictions and college football picks to see how I like playing this game.
Boston College Eagles
After taking down Florida State in what was believed to be a strong win in Week 1, Boston College fell to 1-1 in ACC play after its loss to Virginia last week. That game likely should have been closer than the final score appeared, as turnovers cost the Cavaliers about 7.8 points, according to GameOnPaper.
Even with the loss, the Eagles are still 4-2 on the season with their only other loss coming in a close battle on the road against a ranked Missouri team.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is having a great season piloting the offense.
Castellanos is completing 67% of his passes this year and has 898 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. He is also averaging an impressive 0.34 EPA per Dropback, which ranks toward the top of the ACC.
The Eagles rank second in Passing PPA and first in passing explosiveness this season among FBS teams. They're also 41st in Passing Success Rate and 95th in Rushing Success Rate but run the ball 65% of the time, which is the 10th-highest rate in FBS.
Overall, Boston College ranks 80th in Offensive Success Rate, 20th in Finishing Drives and ninth in offensive explosiveness.
BC’s offensive line has been one of the better units in college football, ranking 10th in PFF pass-blocking grade and 16th in PFF run-blocking grade. The Eagles are one of only three teams to rank in the top 20 in each of these metrics this season, along with Memphis and James Madison.
Defensively, the Eagles have been impressive this year, ranking 16th in Success Rate Allowed and 42nd in Defensive Finishing Drives.
They sit 76th in explosiveness allowed and just 131st in Havoc. Ultimately, this defense hasn’t been disruptive despite ranking 69th in PFF pass-rushing grade.
Boston College ranks fifth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 13th in PFF run defense grade and 20th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Against the pass, it's 42nd in Success Rate Allowed and 54th in PPA Allowed.
Virginia Tech Hokies
In what was supposed to be a season in which they could have been a dark horse ACC Championship contender, the Hokies are sitting at 3-3 through their first six games.
However, with just a couple more breaks, we would be talking about this team differently.
Virginia Tech lost to Miami on the infamous overturned Hail Mary in its lone conference loss while also only losing to Rutgers by three and falling to what we now know is a good Vanderbilt team in overtime.
Offensively, the Hokies rank 95th in Success Rate this season, but they're 58th in Finishing Drives and 38th in explosiveness. They're only 112th in Havoc Allowed — although, that may not be an issue against a Boston College defense that hardly causes any chaos.
Virginia Tech runs the ball 58% of the time, ranking 78th in Rushing Success Rate and 60th in Rushing PPA.
Bhayshul Tuten received almost all of the work in this backfield with 106 carries on the season for 613 yards and an ACC-leading nine touchdowns.
The Hokies are only 102nd in Passing Success Rate this season, but they sit 60th in Passing PPA because they rank ninth in passing explosiveness.
Quarterback Kyron Drones is averaging 0.08 EPA per Dropback with only eight touchdowns in six games this season through the air. His legs pose a threat as well, however, as he has 57 carries for 332 yards and three scores on the season.
Defensively, it finds its strength through its pass rush. The Hokies rank 12th in PFF pass-rush grade this season and are 16th in Havoc. Overall, this unit ranks 47th in Success Rate Allowed, 33rd in Finishing Drives and 90th in explosiveness allowed.
The passing defense has played well overall, coming in at 32nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 52nd in Passing PPA Allowed. However, it has struggled with explosive plays, ranking 96th in passing explosiveness allowed.
The secondary also has some holes, as it ranks 91st in PFF coverage grade.
Virginia Tech has primarily faced the run this year (62%) and ranks 67th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 102nd in Rushing PPA Allowed, 118th in rushing explosiveness allowed,and 99th in PFF run defense grade.
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Prediction
Explosive plays will be key in this game for the Boston College offense.
In this matchup, we have one of the most explosive offenses in the ACC taking on one of the worst defenses at preventing big plays.
Virginia Tech’s pass rush is its only calling card on defense, and Boston College's offensive line should be good enough to neutralize that group and have a successful day on the offensive side of the ball.
A night game in Blacksburg can be one of the more intimidating environments in college football, so I’m not surprised by this touchdown spread — but I don’t see this big of a difference between these two teams.
I like backing Boston College at +7 in this matchup. However, I would only bet the Eagles at +7 or better.
Pick: Boston College +7.5 (Play to +7)
