Toledo Rockets vs Wyoming Cowboys Odds
| Toledo Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Wyoming Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -200 |
When it comes to bowl season, half of the battle of the handicap is trying to calculate the motivation of each participating team and who has the edge emotionally. The Arizona Bowl might be the easiest to deduce this bowl season.
After 10 years as the head coach for Wyoming, Craig Bohl will retire after this game. The 65-year-old has led the Cowboys to a bowl game in six of the last eight years. With a win on Saturday, the Cowboys will reach nine wins for the first time since 1996 and finish with the best season of Bohl’s career.
It might be more difficult to ignite the Rockets, who are coming off a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship, failing to defend their conference title against a backup quarterback.
Toledo ran through the regular season, winning 11 games in a row. But now, it has nothing to show for it, and the transfer portal losses have already begun.
While I give the clear emotional advantage to Wyoming here, is there enough edge on the field to steer me away from the Cowboys?
Toledo Rockets
Toledo led the MAC with nine players named first-team All-MAC. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they will be with at least three of them. Quarterback Dequan Finn, running back Peny Boone and guard Vinny Sciury are all in the transfer portal.
In addition, star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell projects as a second-round pick in the NFL Draft and is likely to opt out of this game.
Backup quarterback Tucker Gleason will get the start for the Rockets, and he has seen action in all 13 games this season. He also started two games last year when Finn was injured. Through 152 career pass attempts, Gleason has 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Toledo’s strength on offense was running the ball, but with Boone and his 1,400 yards in the portal, Jacquez Stuart will take over as the lead back.
The Rockets also lose Finn’s rushing ability with Gleason being much more of a pocket passer.
Even if Mitchell opts out, Toledo’s strength is still its defense. The Rockets ranked ninth in the country in Success Rate against the pass and should still have two-time All-MAC safety Maxen Hook on the back end.
Linebacker Dallas Gant is a tackling machine in the middle, but Toledo has not been as strong against the run this year. That's an area Wyoming will need to exploit.
Use our BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your Toledo vs. Wyoming pick.
Wyoming Cowboys
The Cowboys are not expected to have any significant opt-outs. The one loss will be offensive coordinator Tim Polasek, who accepted the head-coaching position at North Dakota State.
Quarterback Andrew Peasley will play his final game after six years in college at Utah State and Wyoming. He will go out with 43 career games and coming off his best season, tossing 20 touchdowns with just five interceptions this year.
Wyoming’s offense runs through back Harrison Waylee and his 95 rushing yards per game. He battled an injury late in the season but should be at full strength after a month off.
Peasley also chips in with his legs, and the duo has combined for 12 touchdowns on the ground.
Defensively, the Cowboys operate on a bend-don’t-break approach. They aren’t great on a down-to-down basis but are terrific at preventing big plays. Wyoming ranks 83rd in Success Rate on defense but sits 17th at preventing explosiveness.
The Cowboys don’t create any Havoc, but they tighten up in the red zone and have success at preventing scores. They allowed just 15 total points in the final two games to finish up the season.
Linebacker Easton Gibbs is the star of this defense after earning first-team All-Mountain West honors in 2022 and 2023.
Toledo vs Wyoming
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Wyoming match up statistically:
Toledo Offense vs Wyoming Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 78 | |
Wyoming Offense vs Toledo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 27 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 11 | 62 |
| PFF Coverage | 17 | 60 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 84 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 12 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.9 (41) | 30.2 (122) |
| Rush Rate | 60.8% (15) | 60.7% (23) |
Toledo vs Wyoming
Pick, Prediction
Wyoming opened as a 1.5-point underdog and has moved to a 3.5-point favorite, and I agree with the line movement here.
On the field, Toledo will be without its first-team All-MAC quarterback in Finn, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in Boone, its best offensive lineman and likely its best defender.
The Rockets are elite against the pass but just mediocre at stopping the run, which is what Wyoming wants to do on offense.
From a motivation angle, the Cowboys have a clear edge. They will be at full strength and highly motivated to send the winningest coach in program history into retirement with one final victory.
Toledo is coming off a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship and has to pick itself up without its key players. Plus, the Rockets are just 2-4 in bowl games under head coach Jason Candle.
Over the last 20 years, the loser of the MAC Championship game has gone just 6-14 in their bowl game.
So, give me the Pokes in the Arizona Bowl.
Pick: Wyoming -3.5
