Troy vs. Coastal Carolina Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +650 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -1000 |
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will host the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt East divisional matchup on Thursday night.
While Coastal Carolina is 6-1 overall, it's tied with three other teams in the East at 2-1 in conference play. One of those teams is Troy.
The Chanticleers were a letdown on the road last week at App State, as they ruined their chances to be the lone team at the top of the East. The Chants posted a season-low 346 yards on offense while allowing a season-high 575 yards.
They were in the game until the last minute of the 30-27 loss to the Mountaineers but failed to win.
Last week's loss also meant more than just a first-place spot. It ended an 11-game win streak in conference play and an 18-game regular-season win streak.
Head coach Jamey Chadwell and his team will look to begin a new streak at home against Troy.
But now that the rest of the conference has seen Coastal lose a league game for the first time since November 2019, will its 11-game home win streak be at risk as well?
Troy will enter Brooks Stadium on Thursday night as a rejuvenated bunch. The Trojans are coming off a bye week when I'm sure every member of this team saw Coastal's fall from grace.
The Trojans enter Thursday night on a two-game conference win streak — their last victory being a 31-28 win on the road against Texas State.
The Trojans control their path to the conference championship, and that path begins this week against the Chanticleers.
Troy Trojans
Troy Offense
Troy may have found their quarterback in Gunnar Watson, but it still has a lot to figure out as an offense. The Trojans are averaging just 333.5 yards and 20.3 points per game.
Watson has led Troy to back-to-back conference wins since taking over for the injured Taylor Powell. In those games, he's completed 72.9% of his passes for 521 yards, while also recording three touchdowns and no interceptions.
With how well he's done, Watson is expected to get the start Thursday night.
Unfortunately for Troy, he will be without his second-leading receiver in Reggie Todd, who has been suspended indefinitely.
Even worse for Watson, he will be lining up against the best pass defense in the Sun Belt.
With strong winds and rain in the forecast, it won't be a surprise if the Trojans look to run the ball more often than not. However, the Trojans average just 106 rushing yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry.
Troy Defense
The Trojans defense has been not only one of the best in the conference, but it's been one of the best in the country. The unit ranks first in the Sun Belt and seventh nationally in opponent yards per game (286.6).
It also ranks first in the conference against the run, giving up 95.1 rushing yards per game, and second against the pass, allowing 191.4 yards through the air per outing.
And if that wasn't enough, the Trojans lead the conference with 12 interceptions this season.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Coastal Carolina Offense
The Chanticleers are ranked No. 24 in the AP Top 25, even after their first loss of the season last week. While it was a tough loss, this remains one of the best offenses in the country.
Grayson McCall is one of the top quarterbacks nationally, as he has recorded a 77% completion percentage and a 225.83 passer rating. He's also put up 15 touchdown passes and just one interception while tacking on 79 yards and two scores on the ground.
That's not all.
If anything, the ground game may be better than the pass for the Chants. Coastal averages 233.7 rush yards per game — second in the Sun Belt and 11th nationally. It also leads the Sun Belt with 22 rushing touchdowns so far this season.
After being held to a season-low 55 rush yards last week against App State, I expect the ground game to bounce back this week.
Coastal Carolina Defense
Defensively, Coastal Carolina ranks first in the Sun Belt and 17th nationally against the pass, allowing just 179.4 yards per game and just four touchdowns through the air in seven games.
On the ground, the Chanticleers have been solid throughout the 2021 campaign, allowing just 134.3 rushing yards per contest.
While they are coming off their worst game defensively against both the pass and the rush, I expect significant improvement against Troy.
Troy vs. Coastal Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Troy and Coastal Carolina match up statistically:
Troy Offense vs. Coastal Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 17 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 41 | 29 | |
| Big Play | 110 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 57 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Coastal Carolina Offense vs. Troy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 40 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 46 | 38 | |
| Big Play | 2 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 37 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 75 | 21 |
| Coverage | 38 | 62 |
| Middle 8 | 42 | 2 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 64 | 58 |
| Plays per Minute | 68 | 123 |
| Rush Rate | 46.6% (115) | 62.% (22) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Troy vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Pick
The total has gone under in four of Coastal Carolina's last five games.
Coastal Carolina has found a way to cover a large spread this season — it's 5-0 when the spread is above 17. But the Trojans have a defense capable of causing problems for McCall and the CCU offense.
However, while Troy may be efficient on defense, it will struggle against a strong Coastal defense looking to bounce back following its worst game of the season.
Another factor that had a big part in making this bet is the weather Thursday night in Conway, South Carolina. Rain and high winds are likely to affect both offenses, which will already have more than enough to deal with against these defenses.
The winds in this game also fall within an Action Network PRO System hitting at 57%.
Therefore I'm taking the under at 52.5, and I would bet it as low at 52.
Pick: Under 52.5 (Play to 52)
