The Memphis Tigers host Troy in a matchup of programs headed in opposite directions.
Ryan Silverfield’s Memphis program is on rock solid footing, with multi-year starter Seth Henigan back leading one of the best offenses at the Group of Five level. His team is one of the favorites to snag the coveted G5 spot in the first ever 12-team playoff field.
Troy went 23-5 over the past two seasons with one of the best defenses in the Group of Five. However, head coach Jon Sumrall left to Tulane, and new head man Gerad Parker, who comes in from Notre Dame, has an offensive background.
The Tigers entered this year top 20 in returning production, as measured by ESPN’s Bill Connelly; Troy was bottom five in that metric.
So, despite Troy’s winning ways, the Trojans are heavy underdogs in this spot. Is the rebuild so deep that they can’t hang with a fellow Group of Five winner? Or is there enough winning pedigree in the building for this proud program to keep it tight with Memphis?
Let’s get into my Troy vs Memphis prediction.
Troy vs Memphis Prediction
- Pick: Memphis Team Total Over 37.5
My Troy vs. Memphis best bet is on the Tigers team total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs Memphis Odds & Picks
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | +750 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | -1200 |
- Troy vs Memphis Point Spread: Troy +19.5 (-110) · Memphis -19.5 (-110)
- Troy vs Memphis Total: Over/Under 56.5
- Troy vs Memphis Moneyline: Troy +700 · Memphis -1100
Troy vs Memphis Preview
Troy Betting Preview: Defense Struggled in Week 1
The Trojans are a bit of an unknown. So many stars that you know from the past two incredible seasons are gone: quarterback Gunnar Watson, running back Kimani Vidal and receivers Chris Lewis and Jabre Barber.
Last week, the Trojans lost 28-26 to Nevada in Parker’s first game. In a total shift from the Troy teams of Sumrall vintage, the Trojans were pretty solid on offense (.22 EPA/Play), but completely generous on defense. They allowed Nevada to drive (53% success rate) AND get chunk plays (11% explosive rate).
Recent Troy defenses were complete shut down units: excellent coverage players in the secondary, a ferocious pass rush and stout up the middle. They were physical and created havoc. But the Trojans defense that you watched hammer Sun Belt teams has evaporated in one offseason.
The offense might be solid. Goose Crowder wasn’t a disaster in his first start replacing Watson. Incumbent running back Damien Taylor was also excellent, rushing for 103 yards on 11 totes.
Memphis Betting Preview: Tigers Know How to Score
Silverfield’s Tigers are going to score.
Henigan is entering his fourth year as a starter and his numbers just get better each season. He’s thrown for 81 career touchdowns and 25 interceptions, with a 149.4 career passer rating.
Running back Mario Anderson arrives after rushing for 700 yards last year for South Carolina as a true freshman. He broke a light sweat last week as the Tigers dispatched Northern Alabama from the FCS.
The Tigers' offense is well-rounded. They finished 19th in success rate and 26th in explosives last season. They protect the ball (19th in Havoc allowed) and punch it when they get the chance (16th in finishing drives). They did all that last year, then brought back 72% of the production.
The team ranks ninth in Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ on offense. This is a unit that knows how to play together and does it well.
The defense is a little more of a question mark. They rank outside of the top-100 in SP+. They were susceptible to big plays (outside of the top 100) and only middle of the pack in creating Havoc.
Troy vs Memphis Pick & Prediction
Troy is still figuring itself out. The offense might be decent under Parker, but this defense is going downhill from its peak. A shaky opening outing against Nevada does not portend a good 2024 campaign, and certainly not a good day against of the best offenses on the schedule.
I’ll focus on the side of the ball were I feel certain, and take the Memphis' team total over. I think the Tigers will find a lot of success against Troy and have a good day as they get locked in for a Florida State showdown in Week 3 that suddenly seems a lot more manageable.
With Memphis’ postseason aspirations, the Tigers are also playing for style points. I’ll play the team total over 37.5 (-128) at FanDuel.
Pick: Memphis Team Total Over 37.5 (Play to -140)
How to Watch Troy vs Memphis Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Troy vs Memphis Betting Trends
- 62% of the bets are on Memphis ATS while 48% of the money is on the same bet.
Troy vs Memphis Weather
