The South Alabama Jaguars (2-4, 1-1 Sun Belt) and Troy Trojans (1-5, 0-2) kick off this week’s college football action in the Battle of the Belt on Tuesday night.
The Jaguars have dropped two straight to fall to 2-4 on the season and 1-1 in the Sun Belt.
Meanwhile, the Trojans have also struggled in the early part of this season, owning just one win over Florida A&M to go with five losses.
With two teams desperate for a rivalry win on Tuesday night, South Alabama enters as a -13.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 55.
Let’s preview the action and our Troy vs. South Alabama predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 15.
Troy vs South Alabama Prediction
- Troy vs. South Alabama Pick: South Alabama Team Total Over 34.5
My South Alabama vs. Troy best bet is on the Jaguars to go over their team total, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs South Alabama Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | +400 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | -550 |
- Troy vs South Alabama Spread: Troy +13.5 (-110) · South Alabama -13.5 (-110)
- Troy vs South Alabama Over/Under: 55 Points
- Troy vs South Alabama Moneyline: Troy +400 · South Alabama -550
Troy vs South Alabama Preview
Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Playmakers Serving as a Bright Spot
Coming into the season, it was going to be difficult for this Troy program to continue its recent success.
The entire coaching staff left for Tulane, and the Trojans lost their starting quarterback, top three receivers, an NFL running back and only had a combined four starters returning.
To make matters worse for head coach Gerad Parker, the early schedule has done him no favors. The Trojans have had trips to Memphis and Iowa to go along with games against Louisiana-Monroe and Texas State in Sun Belt play.
However, there have been some bright spots among the losses. Running back Damien Taylor and wide receiver Devonte Ross have become top playmakers on offense.
Taylor ranks 18th nationally among running backs with an 83.6 rush grade, per Pro Football Focus, and is eighth with an average of 4.8 yards after contact.
Meanwhile, Ross became the first Troy player with multiple touchdown receptions in consecutive games since 2011.
Parker will need time to turn this around, but a win against a rival could start that rebuild.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: Explosive Offense
South Alabama finally returns to Mobile after what has felt like a season on the road. This is the Jaguars’ first home game since Sept. 12, as they have played four of their last five away from home.
However, that hasn’t slowed down South Alabama’s explosive offense. Coming into this one, head coach Major Applewhite’s team ranks first in the Sun Belt in total offense at 466.2 yards per game.
The Jaguars also boast the top rushing attack in the league at 202.5 yards per contest, while the passing attack ranks fourth among SBC schools.
Quarterback Gio Lopez takes a lot of the headlines, but wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett is having a great campaign as well. Pritchett ranks fifth in the country with six touchdown receptions.
On the defensive side of the ball, the unit is led by linebacker Blayne Myrick. He's the current Sun Belt leader in total tackles with 50, which ranks 14th in the FBS.
South Alabama vs Troy Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Troy match up statistically:
Troy Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
 |  Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 109 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 92 | |
| Quality Drives | 88 | 92 |  |
South Alabama Offense vs. Troy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 106 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 66 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 115 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 104 | 116 |
| PFF Coverage | 87 | 116 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 71 |
| Middle 8 | 85 | 43 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (108) | 28.3 (89) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (49) | 51% (77) |
Troy vs South Alabama Pick & Prediction
When I look at this game, I don’t have any confidence in either defense, but there's a clear advantage when comparing the two offenses. So, I’m electing to back the best unit on the field.
With that said, my best bet is for South Alabama to fly over its team total of 34.5 at FanDuel. If this moves beyond the key number of 35, I would look at rushing or passing player props for Lopez, the Jaguars' quarterback.
The impact of all of the starters Troy lost on defense has shown in the team’s metrics. The Trojans rank outside the top 100 in multiple categories, including Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Defensive Quality Drives and PFF tackle grading.
This is the same unit that's allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground against FBS opponents. That's bad news in this matchup. Meanwhile, South Alabama ranks in the top five nationally in Rush Success and Offensive Line Yards.
While Lopez and Co. will have success running the ball, I could also see the Jaguars throwing all over this Troy defense. The Trojans are below average in defending the pass, and they struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
To make matters worse, South Alabama does a great job of converting drives into points, ranking top-10 in Finishing Drives.
I expect Troy to keep this game competitive with scores of its own, which should keep the Jaguars motivated to keep scoring as well. With the Trojans winning six straight in this rivalry, this should be a spot where South Alabama looks for revenge.
Give me the home team to put together another strong offensive showing against the local rival.
Pick: South Alabama Team Total Over 34.5
Troy vs South Alabama Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 15 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Troy vs South Alabama Betting Trends
- 55% of bets and 45% of the money are on South Alabama to cover the spread.
- 88% of bets and 90% of the money on the moneyline are on South Alabama to win outright.
- 64% of bets and 91% of the money are on the over.
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Troy vs South Alabama Weather
