College Football Predictions for Tuesday, Nov. 12
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 7 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tuesday. Night. MACtion.
America's favorite college football tradition returns for another week with three games tonight and three more on Wednesday. Tonight, we'll break down Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green, Central Michigan vs. Toledo and Ball State vs. Buffalo.
So, whether you're looking to bet the new favorite to take home the conference championship or want to sit back and watch points light up the scoreboard, we have you covered.
Check out our Tuesday college football picks and NCAAF predictions below — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Best Bet: Bowling to Win Big?
The chaos of the SEC receives much of the weekly attention, but the MAC would like a word. Four teams sit atop the league with 4-1 conference records.
Two of those teams face off Tuesday, with conference championship favorite Bowling Green (5-4, 4-1 MAC) playing host to Western Michigan (5-4, 4-1) — both teams whose only MAC loss is to Northern Illinois (the Huskies’ only conference wins of the season).
Western Michigan fell from MAC pole position last week with its 42-28 loss at home to Northern Illinois after winning 4 straight to open its conference slate. Bowling Green has won 3 in a row since losing to NIU and arrive at tonight’s matchup with a more impressive resume that includes single-digit losses to both Penn State (34-27) and Texas A&M (26-20).
The loser of this game is likely eliminated from MAC contention. Can the Falcons stay in the title hunt with a win by at least eight points?
Let's take a look at my Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Nov. 12.
Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan’s short reign atop the MAC came to an end last week in a style of game that's all too familiar for the Broncos: a high-scoring affair.
It was the third time in the last five games that Western Michigan allowed over 40 points, which hadn’t been a problem for the MAC’s top-scoring team. The Broncos average 33.3 points per game and have scored nine more touchdowns than any other team int he conference.
Despite being an offense that runs at the 16th-highest rate in the FBS, the Broncos are most efficient when it comes to moving the ball through the air.
Quarterback Hayden Wolff has the highest yards per attempt (8.3) among qualified MAC passers and has the Broncos ranked 16th in Pass Success Rate.
Western Michigan ranks only 56th in Rush Success Rate, but this is where it does the majority of its work. Three players have over 400 yards rushing, led by running back Jaden Nixon, whose 847 yards rushing are more than 150 higher than the next closest MAC running back.
Possessing a conference-leading offense has been needed, however, with all of the Broncos’ defensive struggles.
Western Michigan sits outside the top 100 in both Rush and Pass Success Rate allowed, and it ranks 10th in the conference in total defense.
The Broncos have allowed over 400 yards of offense in three of their last four games and have only held one team all season to below 21 points.
Bowling Green Falcons
Closely-contested games against Penn State and Texas A&M weren’t just Power 4 teams overlooking a Group of Five opponent. The Falcons have proven their worth in conference and are now the odds-on favorite to hoist the MAC Championship trophy.
Key to Bowling Green’s success is the elevated play of quarterback Connor Bazelak. The former Indiana and Missouri passer leads MAC quarterbacks with a 68.2% completion percentage, the highest mark as a full-time starter in his career.
Bazelak has a clear favorite target in Harold Fannin Jr. Arguably the best tight end in college football, Fannin is the only tight end and one of three players in FBS with over 1,000 yards receiving, along with 73 receptions that rank fourth nationally.
The Bowling Green defense is a respectable unit that has held three of its past four opponents below 300 yards of total offense.
A clear area of strength for the Falcons defense is its secondary. Bowling Green ranks second in the MAC with 168.3 passing yards allowed per game. The Falcons have only allowed one of their past five opponents to score a passing touchdown.
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Pick
While both teams own similar conference resumes, how they’ve gotten there is completely different.
Western Michigan has been involved in a high-scoring nailbiter seemingly every week, while Bowling Green has rounded into form, not playing in a single-score game since the first week of October.
Both teams have strong passing attacks, but the Falcons have a clear defensive edge.
The only MAC team with a better pass defense than Bowling Green is Northern Illinois, which just held the Broncos to 179 passing yards en route to Western Michigan dropping its first conference game of the season.
I see the Falcons giving similar fits to Wolff and the Broncos, while Bazelak and Fannin have another big day. A porous Western Michigan defense continues to rear its ugly head as the Falcons cover the spread.
Pick: Bowling Green -8
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Central Michigan vs. Toledo Best Bet: Blowout in the Glass Bowl
Week 12 brings us a matchup in the MAC between the Central Michigan Chippewas (3-6, 1-4 MAC) and Toledo Rockets (6-3, 3-2) at the Glass Bowl. Tuesday's kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Central Michigan enters this one desperate for a win after dropping 4 straight. Toledo, meanwhile, looks to carry some momentum into this one after a narrow 29-28 win at Eastern Michigan a week ago.
The Rockets enter this one as sizable -14.5 favorites with an over/under of 51.5. Toledo has won three of the last five matches with the Chippewas by double digits. Can it add another this year?
Let's take a look at my Central Michigan vs. Toledo predictions and college football picks for the MACtion games on Tuesday, Nov. 12.
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain is in his sixth season up in Mount Pleasant, and he has had some decent success over the years. McElwain started off hot with two winning seasons in his first three years, but he has not carried that success in recent years.
He will need to start accumulating some wins, as his job may be in question if these trends continue.
Junior quarterback Joe Labas led the offense to start the year, but after suffering a season-ending injury, the team has been bouncing between Tyler Jefferson, Jadyn Glasser and Bert Emanuel Jr. to solve its quarterback problem.
Jefferson had been the guy they trusted, but after going 1-for-6 last week, McElwain decided to give Glasser a crack at it. He performed better, going 5-for-7 for 57 yards while also racking up 10 rushing yards.
While the quarterback position is undoubtedly the most important spot on every team, the most impactful player has been running back Marion Lukes. With Lukes leading the way, the Chips game ranks 29th in Rush Success Rate.
Central Michigan should look to lean into Lukes with the questions at quarterback despite McElwain’s normal heavy-pass attack.
The Chippewas defense has been pretty average this season. They allow 31 points per game with a lot of points being scored on explosives. Central Michigan’s defense ranks 128th in Explosiveness allowed, which is one of the worst marks in the country.
This defense defends the run better, ranking 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed as opposed to 94th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Central Michigan plays a very aggressive defense that can cause problems if the opposing offense isn't properly prepared. The Chips rank sixth in Havoc, which can slow offenses, especially early in the game.
They will need to disrupt this Toledo offense all game if they want to win this one.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo head coach Jason Candle is in his 10th season in Toledo and has had a lot of success coaching the Rockets. He has had a winning record in all but one season, and this year is shaping up to be another one.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason paces this efficient offense that averages 29 points per game. The Rockets do everything well offensively. They rank 60th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in Pass Success Rate.
They can really light up the scoreboard if the defense can't stop Gleason and the passing attack. Toledo takes the top off the defense, ranking 18th in Pass Explosiveness.
The Rockets do look for balance and try to run the ball to set up the pass game, as they rank 36th in Rush Rate. I wouldn't expect problems scoring in this game, whether it comes on the ground or through the air.
Toledo’s defense has been pretty solid as well, allowing just over 22 points per game.
The Rockets are very effective against the run, where they rank 61st in Rush Success Rate allowed and 32nd in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
Toledo struggles a bit more against the pass, ranking rank 70th in Pass Success Rate allowed. However, the Rockets should do a decent job against both of CMU's quarterbacks as the Chips try to figure out who their best option is.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo Pick
Toledo should put up points in this one against a much weaker defense, and it's hard for me to see Central Michigan finding much offense.
The Chippewas’ best player at the moment is their running back, and the strength of this Toledo defense is their run defense.
The way to beat Toledo is through the air, but I haven't seen enough from CMU's backup quarterbacks to trust them in this one.
I'll be playing Toledo as the favorite and taking the Rockets at -16 or better in this Tuesday night matchup.
Pick: Toledo -14.5 (Play to -16)
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Ball State vs. Buffalo Best Bet: Plenty of Points
By John Feltman
We've got Tuesday Night MACtion coming to you live from Western New York, as the Buffalo Bulls (5-4, 3-2 MAC) are set to host the Ball State Cardinals (3-6, 2-3).
The Cardinals are desperate to make a bowl game but must win out to earn a bid. Meanwhile, the Bulls can push for the MAC title game but must continue their winning ways and get some help.
Oddsmakers have the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites with the total at 53.5.
Let's dive into my Ball State vs. Buffalo predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Nov. 12.
Ball State Cardinals
The Cardinals made a solid effort against Miami (OH) last week but lost the game 27-21.
Despite having a ton of disadvantages on both sides of the ball, the Cardinals somehow put together a couple of respectable scoring drives, and the defense did their part.
However, the defense should be less solid on the road as plenty of alarming metrics may come into play. First, the Cardinals are outside the top 100 in almost every critical defensive metric, except Havoc (96th).
They've been gashed through the air and on the ground and have allowed opponents to score touchdowns most of the time when they enter their territory.
The Bulls' offensive metrics are misleading, so I wouldn’t expect many stops from Ball State’s defense.
Offensively, the Cardinals have been a lot better than expected. Quarterback Kadin Semonza cost the Cardinals the game last week with a couple of costly turnovers, but he's helped lift the offense overall.
Semonza has 15 touchdown passes and nearly 2000 yards passing, but he’s also thrown nine interceptions. Ball State nearly outgained the RedHawks last week, which shows the game was easily within its grasp.
Buffalo has been excellent in coverage, so Semonza will have his hands full. However, the Bulls have been vulnerable on the ground, and the Cardinals rank inside the top 65 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards.
The offense is also 58th in Finishing Drives, so I expect it to find the end zone more often than not when entering Bulls territory.
This isn’t the greatest matchup for the Cardinals, but I'd argue that they exposed the RedHawks defense — one of the best defensive units in the conference — last week.
Given their pathetic defense, I can’t back the Cardinals, but I think their offense may be a bit underrated.
Buffalo Bulls
Buffalo dominated Akron, 41-30, last week. The Bulls' offensive metrics might seem ugly, but they've now scored over 30 points in five games this season.
Last week, they benefited from three turnovers and accumulated 390 yards of offense. Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna threw for two touchdowns and chipped in another on the ground.
Ogbonna has only thrown one interception this season, but he has lost five fumbles. The Bulls' offensive focal point is the rushing attack, which is key heading into the matchup.
The Cardinals can’t do much on defense and are outside the top 120 in tackling, so Buffalo should find success running the ball.
The Bulls love to up the tempo on offense and rank 32nd in seconds per play. They should take advantage of the Cardinals' horrendous defense on early downs, which ranks near the bottom of all FBS teams in that category.
They are also 52nd in Finishing Drives, another edge to the offense. The Cardinals’ defense is bad; don’t let the past two weeks convince you otherwise.
Defensively, there are questions in both the trench and secondary. Although they've been excellent in coverage and tackling, the Bulls are 98th in Pass Success Rate Allowed.
They're also 85th in Quality Drives Allowed, which leads me to believe the Cardinals offense will have ample opportunities to sustain drives.
I’m not sold enough on the Bulls defense to swallow the points here. I faded the Cardinals last week and won’t do that to myself again.
Ball State vs. Buffalo Pick
I think it is a great time to take the over. The total is sitting at 53.5, and I will grab it before it begins touching the key numbers of 54 and 55.
Besides a few areas of strength from the Bulls defense, I think both offenses are set up for success.
A lot of sharp money has begun to pour in on the over, and I'll happily ride with the wise guys on Tuesday night.
Pick: Over 54.5 (Play to 55)
