Tuesday College Football Picks, Predictions: How We’re Betting MACtion on November 5

Tuesday College Football Picks, Predictions: How We’re Betting MACtion on November 5 article feature image
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Matt Roembke/Action Network.

It's the return of the MACtion Network.

That's right — after a year-long hiatus, everyone's favorite college football conference is ready to start back up its weekly schedule of Tuesday and Wednesday games.

That also means we're betting some MACtion. That's the proper way to celebrate, right?

Our college football writers came through with a pick for both of Tuesday's two MACtion games: the Bowling Green Falcons vs. Central Michigan Chippewas and Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Ball State Cardinals.

Continue reading for both of our Tuesday college football picks — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more MACtion college football betting coverage.


Tuesday College Football Picks

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of NCAAF MACtion games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
Bowling Green Falcons LogoCentral Michigan Chippewas Logo
7:30 p.m.
Miami RedHawks LogoBall State Cardinals Logo
8 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan Pick

Bowling Green Falcons Logo
Tuesday, Nov. 5
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Central Michigan Chippewas Logo
Central Michigan Team Total Under 16.5
ESPN BET Logo

By Joshua Nunn

MACtion is back, baby!

The Bowling Green Falcons (4-4, 3-1 MAC) travel to take on the Central Michigan Chippewas (3-5, 1-3) to kick off the 2024 edition of one of our favorite events here at Action Network.

This game can be seen on ESPN2 on Tuesday night with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Falcons are slated as 13.5-point favorites in the contest, steaming up from 9.5 on the opener. The total sits at 48.5, which has come down significantly due to impending wind in the Mount Pleasant, Michigan, area.

Below, read for my Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Nov. 5.


Header First Logo

Bowling Green Falcons

Bowling Green comes into this one off a big win on the road over Toledo in the “Battle of I-75” 10 days ago.

BGSU never trailed and took control midway through the third quarter, pulling away to keep pace atop the MAC standings.

The Falcons received efficient quarterback play from Connor Bazelak, and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. continues to dazzle in league play. The ground game also saw running back Terion Stewart rush for 99 yards and a touchdown.

Bowling Green's defense rose to the occasion when it mattered most, forcing a turnover and stopping Toledo on downs in the fourth quarter.

There's no room to exhale this week, as the Falcons must continue to pile up conference wins to punch their ticket to the MAC title game in Detroit.


Header First Logo

Central Michigan Chippewas

CMU enters play as losers of three straight in conference play, and last week might have been rock bottom for the Chips against Miami (OH).

The RedHawks outgained CMU, 518-168, as the Chips' passing attack was held in check and the ground game was pedestrian. CMU did not record an explosive play, and quarterback Tyler Jefferson passed for just 62 yards on seven completions.

Central Michigan's defense was exposed on the ground, as the Chips surrendered 277 rushing yards and 7.1 yards per carry.

The injuries are starting to pile up for CMU, especially on offense, making it extremely difficult to find success.

Being down to a third-string quarterback and down several wide receivers will make the task even tougher against a Bowling Green team peaking at the right time.


Header First Logo

Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan Prediction

I am taking Central Michigan to stay under its team total of 16.5 (+102) currently available at FanDuel.

CMU is down to a third-string quarterback and lacks playmakers on offense.

We saw the offense hit rock bottom 10 days ago against Miami (OH) in a game where it racked up achieved only 12 first downs and punted or turned the ball over on their last nine offensive possessions.

CMU, on the season, ranks just 131st nationally in Offensive Explosiveness and 1344th (dead last) in Offensive Finishing Drives.

Bowling Green has one of the best red-zone defenses in the MAC, allowing touchdowns on just nine of 24 red-zone possessions this year. The Falcons have held teams to an incredible 11 red-zone field goals in 2024.

The Chips lack a passing attack with Jefferson as the quarterback. He played poorly against Miami (OH) and also went just 2-of-8 for six yards against EMU the week prior. Bowling Green ranks 36th nationally in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 16th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Play.

It will be very hard to move the ball against this BG defense with the weapons that CMU will roll out there. Defensively, Bowling Green is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56% of passes for 181.5 yards per game this season.

A major factor here that will affect play for both teams will be the weather.

Mount Pleasant is expecting 18-20 MPH sustained wind with gusts up to 38 MPH. This will really affect an already inefficient CMU offense that struggles to move the ball through the air.

Bowling Green is the much stronger team here, and CMU's defense has been outmatched several games in a row in league play. I would suspect the Falcons to be laser-focused here defensively and shut down the Chips, who are up against it with personnel, their opponent and the wind.

Pick: Central Michigan Team Total Under 16.5



Miami (OH) vs. Ball State Pick

Miami RedHawks Logo
Tuesday, Nov. 5
8 p.m. ET
ESPN
Ball State Cardinals Logo
Ball State Team Total Under 17.5
FanDuel Logo

By John Feltman

Conference USA attempted to replicate the quirkiness of midweek MACtion, but it did not come close.

When the calendar turns to November, the majority of the nation's temperatures have begun to tumble, and it also means that the MAC is on full display for our college football consumption on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

It's so good that the MAC is back during the week.

On Tuesday evening, we kick off with a lopsided matchup, according to oddsmakers. The Miami (OH) RedHawks (4-4, 3-1 MAC) travel to Muncie, Indiana, to take on the Ball State Cardinals (3-5, 2-2).

Both teams are coming off wins, so this is a critical matchup for their MAC Championship game hopes. The MAC always seems wide open, and it could be curtains for Ball State if it's handed its third loss in conference play.

Oddsmakers have the RedHawks as 12.5-point favorites, and the total is 49.5.

Read on for my Miami (OH) vs. Ball State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Nov. 5.


Header First Logo

Miami (OH) RedHawks

The RedHawks steamrolled to a win last week against Central Michigan, defeating the Chippewas 46-7. The offense compiled 540 yards, with more than 300 coming on the ground.

Miami only runs the ball a few times, but it was having so much success last week that it had no choice but to utilize it. It was a complete beatdown, and now it finds itself with a favorable matchup against the Cardinals.

Offensively, the RedHawks have had mixed results thus far in 2024, but there's a reason they've leaned on their passing attack. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has thrown for 1,605 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with seven interceptions.

They are 130th in plays per game and play at a snail's pace on offense. They rank 48th in Pass Success Rate but 117th in Rush Success Rate.

It is an incredible matchup against Ball State's secondary, which is 131st in EPA per Pass Allowed. It's also an abysmal 130th in Available Yards Allowed.

The RedHawks are 17th in Available Yards, so there are zero excuses for them to find success offensively. The defensive side of the ball bodes even more vital, which is encouraging heading into the matchup.

They're also 36th in EPA per Pass and 26th in Early Down EPA per Play. That's an extreme advantage over the Cards, who struggle on early downs on offense.

Ball State struggled to throw the ball efficiently and heavily leaned on their run game. The RedHawks have proven to stifle opposing aerial attacks with their secondary and have also boded well against the run.

It's a terrific matchup for Miami, and I expect both sides of the ball to dominate. It's only a matter of question when the RedHawks decide to take their foot off the gas.


Header First Logo

Ball State Cardinals

Ball State picked up a tremendous win last week against Northern Illinois — a team that defeated Notre Dame on the road earlier in the season. It was the best effort of the season, a season filled with dull moments.

The Cardinals are 2-2 in MAC play, so a loss here would essentially end their season and a chance at a bowl game. They will not be able to win out with their remaining schedule.

It will be challenging for them to put in a fiery effort here, as I assume they'll be flat after a big win. Not only that, but the matchup needs to be fixed in their favor.

The Cardinals come in at 65th in Rush Success Rate, above average across the FBS. They should be able to find some success against the RedHawks, who rank 103rd in Defensive Line Yards and 92nd in Havoc allowed.

Another positive offense is that they've been excellent at Finishing Drives, but the RedHawks are in the top 40 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives allowed. They will struggle to throw the ball, which is already an area where they are below average.

There is a path for them to have some success on the ground, but they only run the ball 48% of the time. I need more faith in their offense to sustain enough consecutive drives where they enter opposing territory.

Defensively, it has been an outright disaster. The Cardinals place outside the top 120 in Rush Success Rate allowed and Line Yards Allowed, and sit near the bottom of the FBS in Pass Success Rate allowed.

The Cards are also a horrific team in coverage and a poor tackling team. They've also been horrendous in the Middle 8, ranking 132nd.

There are far too many uncertainties on both sides of the ball, considering the area they've been most successful in is on the ground, which they only sometimes do offensively.

The defense is an outright joke, so there's no path to stops in the red zone.


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Miami (OH) vs. Ball State Prediction

I definitely can't back Ball State here, especially after its huge win. I have zero confidence that it'll be able to score on the ground, and its offensive tempo needs to be faster for my liking.

The total has already started to tumble from the open, but the best approach here is to fade the Cards, especially on offense. I like their team total under 17.5 here.

Miami (OH) should be able to put together successful offensive drives while taking a lot of time off the clock, and Ball State's offense could be in trouble if they heavily lean on their aerial attack.

Also, the Hawks' defense has been excellent in the red zone, which gives some insurance to the team in terms of total under.

I'd go with this approach instead of attacking the whole game total, as MACtion tends to get crazy around this time of year. I don't think the Cardinals offense shows up here. It could get ugly quickly.

Pick: Ball State Team Total Under 17.5 (Play to 17)

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