College Football Tuesday Predictions & Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tuesdays in October and November are special. Why? Because they mark the first of five straight days of college football.
This week, we have two Conference USA games on this Tuesday night slate: Sam Houston vs. FIU at 7:30 p.m. ET and UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech at 8 p.m. ET.
Our college football writers dug deep to find their best bets for both games, and they came through with an over and an under. It doesn't matter if you're a fan of offense or defense — we have you covered either way.
Continue reading for our Tuesday college football picks — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Sam Houston vs. FIU Prediction
By Matt Wispe
Conference USA play continues as the Sam Houston Bearkats (5-2, 2-1 CUSA) travel to Miami to take on the Florida International Panthers (2-5, 1-2) on Tuesday, Oct. 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Sam Houston enters this game with a 5-2 record but is looking to bounce back from a 31-14 home loss to Western Kentucky. The Bearkats own a 5-2 record against the spread and have gone under the total in 4 games this season.
FIU, meanwhile, boasts a 2-5 record and is coming into this game looking to break a 2-game losing streak. The Panthers are 4-3 against the spread and have gone over the total in 4 games this season.
Weather could be impactful in the overall scoring. While precipitation isn't expected, winds up to 13 MPH could present problems for the offense and special teams.
Sam Houston enters as a -5.5 favorite with the over/under set at 46.5.
So, where does the betting value lie in this Tuesday night tussle? Let's dive into my Sam Houston vs. FIU predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 22.
Sam Houston Bearkats
Sam Houston's second season in the FBS has already eclipsed Year 1's three-win finish.
The Bearkats are averaging 31.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play with a 40.9% Success Rate and 3.2 Points per Opportunity. They lean heavily on the run game but still manage a pace of 27.5 seconds per play pace, which ranks 75th nationally.
The offense is led by the running game, and quarterback Hunter Watson is at the forefront.
He leads the team with 370 rushing yards and four touchdowns and shares the backfield with running backs Jay Ducker and DJ McKinney, who have 348 rushing yards each.
As a team, the Bearkats are averaging 4.8 rushing yards per attempt with a 42.9% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line generates 3.40 Line Yards per attempt, which ranks an impressive 29th nationally.
While Watson’s role on the offense is primarily to lead the running game, his complementary passing success has elevated the whole offense.
Watson left the game against Western Kentucky and is questionable for the game, but as of Sunday, he was listed as the QB1 on the depth chart.
The JUCO transfer has completed 59.1% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. For the year, he has 859 passing yards and seven touchdowns.
However, turnovers have been a struggle, as he’s thrown five interceptions. As a team, Sam Houston owns a 39% Pass Success Rate to rank 99th nationally.
The defense allows 23.8 points per game and 5.3 yards per play with a 44.6% Success Rate allowed. The Kats struggle to stop opponents in their own territory, averaging 4.41 Points per Opportunity.
They also generate Havoc at a rate of 16.6%, including 12 turnovers forced.
FIU Panthers
Florida International’s start is generally in line with recent years’ results, albeit slightly worse.
Mike MacIntyre’s team has finished the last two seasons with a 4-8 record, but he’ll need to find some late-season success to meet those levels.
The Panthers are averaging 26.1 points per game and 5.4 yards per play with a 37.3% Success Rate and 4.41 Points per Opportunity.
Quarterback Keyone Jenkins leads a balanced offense in Miami. As a team, Florida International has averaged 222.9 passing yards per game on 29 pass attempts.
Jenkins has completed 63.2% of his passes for an average of 7.7 yards per attempt. As a team, they boast a 40.4% Pass Success Rate and average 3.5 passes over 20 yards per game.
The Panthers feature a two-man backfield with two backs who have over 50 carries and 200 rushing yards.
Kejon Owens leads the team with 69 rush attempts and 301 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Lexington Joseph is the second back with 51 attempts for 216 yards and two scores. Both backs have contributed as pass-catchers as well.
As a unit, the Panthers own a Rush Success Rate of 34.5% behind an offensive line that generates 2.26 Line Yards per attempt — one of the worst marks in the nation.
The defense has played well enough to keep a struggling offense in the game, but it hasn’t won games for the Panthers.
They allow 28.7 points per game and 5.5 yards per play with a 43.3% Success Rate Allowed. Opponents have scored 3.64 Points per Opportunity.
The Panthers also create Havoc on just 12.9% of plays.
Sam Houston vs. FIU Pick
As of writing, 89% of bets and 93% of money is supporting the favorite, Sam Houston, to cover a 6.5-point spread. However, according to our PRO Report, sharp money has been tracked in favor of the underdog.
Approximately 74% of bets and 74% of money has been in favor of the over. Interestingly enough, though, sharp money has hit the under, while big-money bets have favored the over.
With two run-heavy offenses, I'm backing the under in this matchup. Neither defense should pose a big threat when it comes to slowing down the offenses consistently, which should help keep drives long with the clock moving.
From there, we just have to trust in the defenses to keep touchdowns off the board.
Pick: Under 46 (Play to 45)
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UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction
By Cody Goggin
The UTEP Miners (1-6, 1-3 Conference USA) will head to Ruston, Louisiana, to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-4, 1-4) in a Tuesday night Conference USA matchup. Kickoff is set from Joe Aillet Stadium at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Bulldogs are 6-point favorites at home in this game, with an over/under of 50 points set as of right now.
Let’s dive into my preview for Tuesday night’s matchup with UTEP vs Louisiana Tech predictions and college football picks to find out where I see betting value on this game.
UTEP Miners
The Miners got off the schneid last week against FIU and put themselves in the win column for the first time this season. UTEP averaged 6.1 yards per play and posted a 61st-percentile Success Rate in this game, primarily on the back of its run game.
UTEP’s passing game has been atrocious this season. Quarterback Skyler Locklear has racked up909 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.
He's averaging -0.19 EPA per Dropback this season and averaged -0.30 EPA per Play in last week’s win over FIU. As a team, the Miners rank 119th in Pass Success Rate and 99th in EPA per Pass.
On the ground, UTEP ranks 73rd in Rush Success Rate and 108th in Rush EPA per Play.
Jevon Jackson has led the way with 88 carries for 403 yards and one touchdown on the year. He showed out last week, putting up 26 carries for 148 yards and a touchdown while averaging 0.13 EPA per play.
Defensively, UTEP ranks 98th in Success Rate Allowed and 83rd in EPA Per Play allowed this season. This stop unit ranks 119th nationally, according to SP+.
Teams have primarily run the ball against the Miners, as they have the fifth-most rushing plays per game faced this season. They rank 92nd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 67th in Rush EPA allowed, as they have found ways to prevent big plays.
This is partly because they Miners one of the better tackling teams in the country, ranking 32nd in PFF’s Tackling grade.
In the passing game, UTEP ranks 86th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 95th in EPA per Pass allowed. It ranks 106th in PFF’s Coverage grades and 85th in PFF’s Pass Rushing grades, as it's better on the front end than the back at this point.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana Tech sits at 2-4 on the season but has played a very easy slate of opponents.
It has the second-easiest schedule in FBS to this point, according to CFB Reference, with UTEP being its fifth FBS opponent that has ranked 117th or lower in SP+.
To make matters worse, Louisiana Tech has already lost three of these four games, although they've all been by a single possession.
The Bulldogs have been much better on offense since going to quarterback Evan Bullock out of the bye two weeks ago. He has helped them put up 48 and 30 points in the last two games after they hadn’t gone over 20 against an FBS opponent all season.
Bullock is averaging 0.13 EPA Per Dropback right now compared to -0.16 for Jack Turner, who he replaced as starter.
As a team, Louisiana Tech ranks 107th in Pass Success Rate and 77th in Pass EPA. Over the last two games, it has had an above-average EPA Per Dropback mark, so it seems to be showing improvement through the air compared to the first few weeks of the season.
This LA Tech offensive line ranks 87th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades compared to 121st in PFF Run Block grade, so it has certainly held up better in passing situations than on the ground. This is a big reason why the Bulldogs rank only 122nd in Rush Success Rate and 129th in EPA Per Rush this season.
Louisiana Tech’s defense has been great this year, albeit against a weak schedule of opposing offenses. It's 19th in Success Rate allowed and 23rd in EPA Per Play allowed.
The Bulldogs' passing defense has also been exceptionally strong, ranking 17th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 41st in EPA Per Pass allowed.
However, they also sit 119th in both PFF Pass Rush grade and Coverage grade, which I think is more indicative of where they are as a defense when taking the opponents they've faced into account.
Against the run, Louisiana Tech is 20th in EPA Per Rush allowed and 37th in Rush Success Rate allowed. It's 94th in PFF’s Run Defense grades this year and 103rd in PFF’s Tackling grades.
UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech Pick
Neither team in this game inspires a ton of confidence, as they're both well below-average teams as a whole, even for Conference USA.
Louisiana Tech is favored by a full touchdown, but I don’t believe there's that much of a difference between the two teams.
However, Bullock appears to give the Bulldogs a large advantage over Locklear in this matchup, so I’m not looking to fade the team with the better quarterback at home.
Instead, my favorite play on this game will be the over at 50 points.
I think Louisiana Tech’s offense is better than the market is giving it credit for with this quarterback change. Plus, the Bulldogs defense is worse than their overall numbers show, leading to what I believe will be a higher-scoring game between these two conference foes.
Pick: Over 50 (Play to 51.5)
