Like Arizona State, Oregon, Texas and SMU, Army (10-1, 8-0) is looking to win a conference championship in its inaugural year in the American Conference, which would be quite the accomplishment for Todd Monken's team.
To do so, they must take out the most dominant team in the AAC for most of the season, Tulane (9-3, 7-1), in Jon Sumrall's first season as head coach.
After coasting through league play, the Green Wave tripped up in their regular season finale against Memphis, which, in all likelihood, cost them a chance at a college football playoff berth.
Additionally, due to that loss, Army will host this title game in West Point in December, which might not provide ideal weather conditions for southern-based Tulane.
So, who will come out on top in this intriguing American battle? Tulane is a 5-point favorite on the spread with a 45.5-point over/under.
Let's look at my Tulane vs. Army predictions and college football picks for the AAC Championship on Friday, Dec. 6.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Army Black Knights Prediction and Best Bet
- Tulane vs. Army Picks: Under 45.5
My Tulane vs. Army best bets are on the under and Army's first-quarter spread, with the best lines currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulane vs. Army Odds, Spread
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -113 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | -195 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | +145 |
- Spread: Tulane -4 · Army +4
- Over/Under: 45.5 Points
- Moneyline: Tulane -195 · Army +145
Tulane Football vs. Army Football Preview
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview
Coming into the season, plenty of questions surrounded this Tulane team that had to replace its head coach (Willie Fritz), quarterback (Michael Pratt), and a host of other primary contributors.
However, those questions were quickly answered after new head coach Jon Sumrall arrived.
Sumrall came over from Troy and led a smooth transition, keeping the Green Wave among the elite Group of five teams.
One reason Tulane didn't see much of a drop-off was the emergence of freshman quarterback Darian Mensah, who most didn't even project as the starter in the summer.
Mensah, who finished with 20 touchdowns to just five interceptions, has a lively arm capable of spraying the ball all over the field to a talented group of wide receivers led by Mario Williams, Dontae Fleming, and Yulkieith Brown.
However, the offense's workhorse is running back Makhi Hughes, who spearheads a run-first offense that throws the ball at the 10th-lowest rate nationally.
As you'd expect under defensive-minded Sumrall, his stop unit played very well this season.
It's a well-schooled and schemed stop unit with no significant flaws. The secondary boasts the most talent on this side of the ball.
Austin Peay transfer Sam Howard has been a revelation at linebacker, a position with question marks coming into the season. Patrick Jenkins is the star of the show at the point of attack for a deep and talented defensive line that will need to be at its best on Friday night against the Army rushing attack.
Army Black Knights Betting Preview
When you're talking about Army football in 2024, it all starts with quarterback Bryson Daily.
Daily has had a fantastic season under center, running the Black Knights' vaunted triple-option attack with a few more modern offensive principles sprinkled in.
The results? An FBS-best 312.5 yards per game on the ground.
Daily not only led the team with over 1,300 yards rushing (to go along with 25 touchdowns), but he also threw for 860 yards with an eight-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio while only being sacked four times.
While Daily is the star, it's not like he doesn't have help around him.
Kanye Udoh and Noah Short are two dynamic backs with complimentary skill sets who averaged 6.2 and 8.5 yards per carry, respectively. Only Louisville's Duke Watson averaged more yards per carry than Short among backs with at least 50 rushing attempts this season.
Meanwhile, after Daily, Udoh, and Short pound away at teams, wide receiver Casey Reynolds usually benefits from the subsequent timely play-action deep shots in the Army's inefficient but explosive passing attack. Reynolds averages a whopping 24.5 yards per reception.
Lastly, the offensive line has been tremendous all season. This unheralded group, which has maintained great health all year, leads the nation in PFF's Run Blocking grades. As always, everything starts up front for the Black Knights offense.
On the other side of the ball, the defense has only allowed 15.1 points per game, which ranks eighth nationally.
However, part of that success can be attributed to a very soft schedule of opposing offenses and the fact that Army runs a methodical offense that dominates time of possession.
Additionally, the Black Knights have been a bit fortunate in several categories, which has deflated the number of points they have allowed.
Opponents have only scored on 58% of red zone trips (the second-lowest percentage in the country behind Ohio State) and converted just 14 of 32 fourth-down attempts, which holds even more weight in an Army game since a failed conversion leads to the Army offense coming back on the field to chew up the clock.
If you look at some advanced metrics, this defense, which recently lost defensive end Kyle Lewis to a season-ending injury, can be exploited by competent offenses, as we saw with Notre Dame in its blowout victory over the Black Knights in their only loss of the season.
Army's stop unit ranks outside the top 100 nationally in Success Rate despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the country filled with incompetent opposing offenses.
The Black Knights excel at limiting explosive plays, as they want to bend but not break in the red zone (which they've been able to do so far in almost every game).
However, their defensive line can be pushed around up front, and their secondary is obviously not the most talent-laden.
Army vs. Tulane Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Army and Tulane match up statistically:
Tulane Offense vs. Army Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 14 | |
Army Offense vs. Tulane Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 7 |  |
| Line Yards | 4 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 28 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 21 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 82 | 57 |
| PFF Coverage | 32 | 40 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 47 | 61 |
| Middle 8 | 10 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.9 (130) | 33.8 (134) |
| Rush Rate | 65% (7) | 86% (1) |
How to Make Tulane vs. Army Best Bets
Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in net yards per play (sans garbage time) against FBS competition, but it's worth noting that Tulane played a much more difficult schedule.
These are two very worthwhile AAC title contenders.
If Tulane stays focused on offense, it should move the ball on the ground with Hughes and through the air with a talented group of wide receivers who should hold a speed edge outside.
But can the Green Wave finish drives with touchdowns in the red zone? That will go a long way in determining this outcome.
Army's best defense in this game might be its offense. Can it control the time of possession and bleed the clock with long, methodical drives?
If we go based on history, that might be tough against Sumrall, whose defenses have seen the triple option in each of the past three seasons and only allowed nine total points (two shutouts, including one earlier this year against Navy).
Sumrall clearly knows how to prepare his defense for this unique offensive scheme, which requires extreme gap integrity and discipline on every down from start to finish. While this isn't an elite tackling group statistically, and the linebacker room still leaves a lot to be desired (which is key against a triple option), his track record speaks for itself.
With that said, where is Tulane at mentally?
Before that Memphis loss, it was about a college football playoff trip. Will they be wholly focused during that required tough preparation for Army's triple option?
Also, are there other potential distractions, such as coaching rumors among some Tulane staff?
Those are certainly valid questions worth considering, especially since you can always count on Army to show up and not beat itself with costly mistakes or penalties.
I don't hate taking a shot on the Army moneyline for the game due to some of my questions about Tulane's headspace (Mensah is also probably overdue for an interception or two).
However, I tried Army first quarter +1.5, which holds even more value in this game where there could be only two to three possessions.
Plus, no team has been as productive on its first drive of the game as Army has been this season, with touchdowns in nine of its 11 opening drives (and a field goal in one of the other two). Only Notre Dame held Army without a score on its first drive of the game.
In fairness, Tulane has also been highly productive in the first quarter on both sides of the ball, but catching points in the first quarter in a game that projects to have so few possessions looks to be the way to go, especially since I show a touch of value on the full game spread.
Still, I worry about Army's secondary holding up for the full 60 minutes.
From a total perspective, I don't mind looking at the under (anything over 45) in a battle of two-run heavy offenses that rank in the bottom five nationally in seconds per play.
There will be lots of runs and a rapidly moving clock — if Army's offense stays on the field and continues to convert on third and fourth downs at an absurdly high clip, this game will fly by.
It's worth mentioning that these are two of the six offenses in the country that have converted on over 50% of their third-down conversion attempts. Both are also in the top 10 in red zone scoring percentage.
The Tulane defense has been dynamite on third downs (top-15) and has held opponents to just 7-for-23 on fourth-down conversion attempts (No. 2 nationally). Those battles on late downs and in the red zone (Tulane has excelled at forcing field goals inside the 20) when Army (21-for-28 on fourth downs, elite red zone offense) has the ball will go a long way in determining who wins the AAC championship.
Lastly, I'll close with some notable betting trends:
- Army head coach Jeff Monken is 39-24-2 ATS (61.9%) as an underdog, covering by 4.5 points per game. Although, he's just 6-8 ATS in this role at home. Over the past 10 years, service academies have gone 96-66 ATS (59%) in the first half as underdogs.
- Tulane's Jon Sumrall is 19-7 ATS (73.1%) as a favorite, covering by over a touchdown per game. That includes a perfect 11-0 ATS record when laying points on the road. However, teams that lost as a double-digit favorite before their conference championship game have gone just 5-10 SU and ATS.
- Since 2005, conference championship unders in below-freezing conditions have gone 7-3, staying under by more than a touchdown per game on average.
Pick: Under 45.5 · Army 1Q +1.5
Tulane vs. Army TV Channel, Streaming, How To Watch, Location
| Location: | Michie Stadium, West Point, NY |
| Date: | Friday, Dec. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Tulane vs Army will be played at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York, on Friday, Dec. 6 at 8 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ABC.
Tulane vs. Army Betting Trends
Tulane vs. Army Weather
