The Tulane Green Wave (9-4, 7-1 AAC) and Florida Gators (7-5, 4-4 SEC) will square off in the Gasparilla Bowl on Friday afternoon as an appetizer to the start of the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
These two teams finished the season headed in different directions.
While the Gators won 3 straight, including 2 over ranked opponents, to get to an impressive 7-5 record with one of the nation's most difficult schedules, Tulane got upset in back-to-back games against Memphis and Army to fall completely out of the College Football Playoff race.
Can the Green Wave bounce back here with a backup quarterback, or will the Gators continue their momentum and pick up their first bowl victory since 2019?
Let's take a closer look at my Tulane vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for the Gasparilla Bowl on Friday, Dec. 20.
Tulane vs Florida Prediction
- Tulane vs. Florida Pick: Tulane +11.5
My Florida vs. Tulane best bet is on the Green Wave to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulane vs Florida Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 / -110 | +325 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 / -110 | -425 |
- Tulane vs Florida Point Spread: Tulane +10.5 (-110) · Florida -10.5 (-110)
- Tulane vs Florida Total: Over/Under 49.5
- Tulane vs Florida Moneyline: Tulane -325 · Florida -425
Tulane vs Florida Preview
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview: Thompson Takes Over
Tulane stumbled down the stretch, but I do believe it will care and show up for this matchup against an SEC team, especially with head coach Jon Sumrall signing an extension after being connected to numerous other jobs in the rumor mill.
The big news with Tulane in recent weeks is it lost starting quarterback Darian Mensah (and a couple of defensive linemen) to the transfer portal. With Mensah signing with Duke, former Oregon transfer Ty Thompson will get the nod under center despite also being in the portal.
Tulane wants to rely on bell-cow back Makhi Hughes and its ground game to set up some downfield shots to a very talented group of wide receivers, led by former USC transfer Mario Williams.
Can Thompson hit those throws? It remains to be seen. However, his legs will certainly be a weapon, as we saw throughout the season when he was used in various packages, including near the goal line.
Adjusting for opponent, the defense was not as effective as the offense and will likely be down a few key cogs along the defensive line. However, the Green Wave are a well-schemed unit under Sumrall and generally do an adequate job of limiting explosive plays.
The special teams are average overall, but the Green Wave have major field-goal kicking issues, which we saw in the AAC Championship game. Don't be surprised if they're a bit more aggressive on fourth downs when in scoring range, especially since this is essentially an exhibition.
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Motivation is There
When handicapping bowls, you have to start with potential motivation.
I do believe Florida is all in here after finishing the season strong and appearing to have most of its roster available for this game outside of the litany of injuries it dealt with on both sides of the ball.
Playing in Tampa also might provide a slight edge.
One of those injuries occurred to starting quarterback Graham Mertz, which paved the way for freshman phenom DJ Lagway to take over QB1 duties.
Lagway remains a bit limited throwing the ball in the intermediary areas but has an absolute cannon that can connect on a deep ball on any down from anywhere on the field. He's ultimately fared pretty well, especially given his lack of experience.
While Florida does miss the versatility and play-making ability of Eugene Wilson (out for the year), it does still have a dynamic duo at wide receiver in Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike.
Florida looked rough earlier in the season but steadily improved as the year progressed once it figured things out up front along the offensive line and made some schematic changes on the defensive end that paid handsome dividends despite crippling injuries in the secondary.
The Gators also possess one of the best special teams units in the country.
Tulane vs Florida Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Florida match up statistically:
Tulane Offense vs. Florida Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 14 |  |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 58 | |
Florida Offense vs. Tulane Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 35 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 21 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 82 | 85 |
| PFF Coverage | 32 | 109 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 65 | 3 |
| Middle 8 | 10 | 80 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.9 (117) | 27.6 (84) |
| Rush Rate | 65% (8) | 58% (41) |
Tulane vs Florida Pick & Prediction
I like Tulane here catching double digits.
If the Green Wave had a full roster, I'd project this spread under touchdown and just don't see a touchdown drop between Mensah and Thompson.
This is not a disastrous backup quarterback situation as we can often see in bowl games. Thompson was a highly-prized recruit at Oregon before transferring down to New Orleans. He certainly has all of the tools and extra time to prepare for what will basically be an audition for a potential next stop.
Regardless, the Green Wave are going to rely on their ground game, which could have success against a vulnerable Florida run defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate allowed, especially with the added element of Thompson's ability on designed runs and scrambles.
I can see Tulane keeping the chains moving, which in turn would really shorten this game since it plays extremely slowly.
On the other side of the ball, Tulane's defense structurally can limit Florida's explosive passing plays. That's absolutely paramount against Lagway, who still isn't polished enough to methodically march the Gators down the field on a consistent basis with efficient passes.
A slow, running team with a mobile quarterback and smart defensive coach will always pique my interest as a double-digit 'dog, and this particular one fits that mold.
I think the market has overreacted too much to the Mensah news, so I'll buy low on Tulane after its late-season wobble.
Pick: Tulane +14.5 (Play to +11.5)
Tulane vs Florida Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Friday, Dec. 20 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Tulane and Florida meet in the Gasparilla Bowl on Friday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
