Tulane vs. Houston Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 53.5 -106o / -114u | +160 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 53.5 -106o / -114u | -194 |
Editor's Note: Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt will not play Friday against Houston, according to Action Network's Brett McMurphy.
After quite an underwhelming start to the season, the Houston Cougars will look to get conference play started on the right foot when they host the Tulane Green Wave.
But that may be easier said than done against a Green Wave team that has started the season 3-1.
Tulane pulled off a massive upset at Kansas State just two weeks ago. Unfortunately, it followed that up by losing outright to Southern Miss at home last week as a 14-point favorite.
Tulane has not won at Houston since 2014, when it beat the Cougars 31-24. Can it end the drought against a struggling Houston squad? Or will we see the Cougars we expected in the preseason now that conference play has arrived?
The Cougars lead the all-time series 19-7 and more importantly, they are 11-3 when hosting the Green Wave.
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane looked about as good as it could against Kansas State and nearly as bad as it could against Southern Miss.
Against the Golden Eagles, Tulane had a missed and blocked field goal, as well as a blocked punt. They also gave up four sacks, and quarterback Michael Pratt threw a pick-six.
Now, there are other elements at play here. I don't think Tulane just turned into a pumpkin in six days time. It was a bad spot coming off of a massive win with another big game that the Green Wave knew they could win on deck.
Not to mention Southern Miss had two big "run-up-the-score" losses to Tulane last year — one in Hattiesburg and one in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The cherry, on top, of course, was the game being SMU head coach and former Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall's first trip back to New Orleans.
Some of Tulane's statical rankings may be influenced by the fact that it has played teams such as Alcorn State and UMass. However, I still think it can take advantage of Houston's defense.
Houston Cougars
Houston's most significant advantages against Tulane will be Finishing Drives and Passing Downs. The Cougars rank 34th in Offensive Finishing Drives and scored points in 100% of their trips to the red zone through three games.
The Cougars also rank 48th in Pass Down EPA (expected points added), while the Green Wave are 85th in Pass Down EPA Allowed.
Defensively, Houston will need to make considerable improvements in just four days if it wants to stop the Tulane pass attack. The Cougars rank 65th in Pass Play Explosiveness Allowed and Defensive Explosiveness overall — two areas in which Tulane is among the top three.
Tulane vs. Houston Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Houston match up statistically:
Tulane Offense vs. Houston Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 76 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 74 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 33 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 53 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Houston Offense vs. Tulane Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 32 |  |
| Pass Success | 66 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 41 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 42 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 113 |
| PFF Coverage | 43 | 37 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 97 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (82) | 25.8 (43) |
| Rush Rate | 61.2% (23) | 52.9% (72) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Tulane vs. Houston Betting Pick
In my opinion, Tulane's ranking as one of the top-10 defenses in the country is due in large part to some of the teams its faced. And I think the Cougars' offense will have considerable success scoring against it.
Pairing that up with the Houston defense — which ranks among the bottom-25 worst in the country, allowing 449 yards and 48.7 points per game — I feel confident taking the over in this one.
Tulane found itself in a bad spot last week, coming off of a huge upset win and a big game ahead of it in Houston. Now both teams are looking to get things on track with a win, so expect both to lean on their offenses in this one.
I was able to get the over at 54, but I would feel comfortable taking the over at any number 56 or better.
