Tulsa vs. Temple Odds
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
Temple seemed to be making real improvements under first-year head coach Stan Drayton when the Owls beat UMass, were competitive against Rutgers and then led Memphis until a fourth-quarter collapse.
There were some promising signs in the defensive numbers and some signs of life offensively with new quarterback E.J. Warner. Then the Owls lost to UCF last Thursday, 70-13.
Temple will look to shake off that embarrassing defeat when it returns home to host Tulsa on Friday night at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Golden Hurricane suffered a blowout loss to Navy heading into the bye and have lost three consecutive games. While there's no shame in losing by eight at Ole Miss and by 10 to conference favorite Cincinnati, Tulsa had no answer for the Midshipmen two weeks ago.
The Golden Hurricane had extra rest to prepare for this game, but they'are still overvalued after last season, and the market isn't pricing in all of the defensive regression that has hit them this season.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa went 7-6 last season but won five games by one score and lost a ton of production from the defense. Not only did excellent defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie leave the program for TCU, but nine starters departed on that side of the ball.
The Golden Hurricane rank 113th in Defensive Line Yards this season and outside the top 100 in defending the run. That doesn't matter a ton against the Owls because they haven't been able to run the ball against anyone this year.
There's also very little resistance coming from Tulsa in terms of red-zone stops and creating negative plays through Havoc. The Golden Hurricane rank 119th in Havoc created and 126th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Temple's offense has really struggled to both run the ball and score in the red zone, but those are the worst parts of the Golden Hurricane's defense too.
Tulsa also generates very little pass rush, and that means plenty of clean pockets for Warner, who's the son of Pro Football Hall-of-Famer Kurt Warner.
There's also major regression coming for Tulsa's offense in the red zone. The Golden Hurricane rank eighth in the nation in Finishing Drives, which is really impressive. But a look under the hood makes you wonder how long that will really last. An offense that sits 78th in Rushing Success Rate and 49th in Passing Success Rate won't continue to be elite in the red zone.
Now, as a road favorite of multiple scores, there are too many holes in this Tulsa team to trust the offense to keep putting up 7s and for the defense to stop anyone.
Temple Owls
Warner has been up-and-down in his first year as a starter. The Owls moved to him in the second game of the season after a 30-0 shutout loss to Duke in the season opener.
He really struggled against Memphis and UCF in the last two games, but he's held up well when not under pressure.
From clean pockets this season, Warner has a 65.1 PFF grade, has averaged 7.3 yards per attempt and has six big-time throws with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He won't win any awards with those numbers, but it's competent enough quarterback play.
Warner's PFF grade drops to 49.9 when pressured. He has a 7.8% turnover-worthy play rate and averages just 5.8 yards per attempt. In this matchup, though, Tulsa won't be able to put consistent pressure on him. The Golden Hurricane rank really poorly in Pressure and Sack Rates.
It's hard to say this after the Owls allowed 70 points to UCF last week, but the Temple defense grades out well in the secondary from a coverage and tackling perspective.
Tulsa is more of a pass-first offense, but the line has really struggled to keep quarterback Davis Brin upright. The Golden Hurricane rank 115th in pass blocking, while Temple's defense sits 22nd in Havoc created.
Tulsa vs. Temple Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Temple match up statistically:
Tulsa Offense vs. Temple Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 51 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 52 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 115 | 80 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 35 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Temple Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 129 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 97 | 51 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 95 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 129 | 126 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 92 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 46 | 25 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 77 | 118 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.0 (33) | 25.8 (48) |
| Rush Rate | 47.8% (99) | 48.4% (95) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Tulsa vs. Temple Betting Pick
This is more of a bet against Tulsa's ability to get out to a big lead than anything else.
The Golden Hurricane have an extremely leaky defense and an offense that won't continue to score as much as it has in the red zone. Even though the Owls got absolutely torched on the road last week, you should expect a response from them in a Friday night game at home.
Tulsa's run defense won't get particularly exposed in this matchup like it did against Navy, but you can poke way too many holes in the Golden Hurricane for them to be a 13-point road favorite in Philly.
The line is inflated because of how bad the Owls looked last week, but I like Temple at +13 or better at home.
Pick: Temple +13 or Better |
